Gyroscopic Investing

My thoughts go out to those in Japan and I know that such a resourceful people will recover from this catastrophe.

With the Japanese markets in panic over the events happening in that country, it could be an interesting Variable Portfolio investment. In this way you can support the Japanese companies that have brought the world many innovations and new technology through the years by owning their stock at a favorable discount.

One ETF to consider for this is the iShares MSCI Japan Index. Ticker symbol: EWJ. This ETF features a low 0.54% expense ratio (for an international fund) and exposure to all major Japanese industry sectors.

Other ways to help are to contribute directly through charitable relief operations. Google lists many resources here:

Japan Quake 2011

If I were a smarter, more sophisticated investor, I would be looking for a way to invest in Japan right now.  Over the past 20 years, the Nikkei has returned almost nothing, and since the quake, it's down almost 20%.  Reversion to mean would predict a very bullish decade ahead. 

I stick to the PP, but, just for fun, I'd be curious to hear ideas as to how people might consider investing in Japan. 

I have some play money. I bought BP last year at the height of the crisis and am about to lock in long term cap gains. I may use that cash to buy EWJ. Market panics are sometimes good buying opportunities. But again this is for money you can afford to lose. The Japan index is getting close to 2008 panic levels. SCJ is another option. That's a Japan Small Cap index.

When would you sell?

Adam1226 wrote: When would you sell?

I don't know. But most likely after I can get long term cap gains rates. Or maybe much longer if things are looking good. Hard to say. It is play money but I tend to treat it as longer term investing.

Do you usually buy in all at once, or do you do something like a 50% EWJ 50% cash split and rebalance periodically?

The scope of the disaster in Japan is difficult for me to get my mind around.  I understand right where you're coming from, but for me I simply can't understand a nightmare of this size.  Because of that, I just can't get comfortable with the idea of investing in Japan.  I want to believe, but I just can't figure out how an aging population recovers from something like this to transition into a powerful bull market.

Your bet on Japan sounds smart but this whole disaster is beyond my capacity to understand.  A man's got to know his limits, and this level of destruction is too much for me to "get".

Watching this incredible "on the ground" video of the water rolling in is so brutal and chilling that the whole thing puts me in an extremely primitive and fearful state of mind.  I look at something like that and I want to turn and run.  I think that "contrary" plays into disasters like this are often immensely profitable because people like me can't gather the nerve to participate, creating an opportunity for others.

Thank you for the link to the google page for donations to the Japanese Red Cross.

Adam1226 wrote: Do you usually buy in all at once, or do you do something like a 50% EWJ 50% cash split and rebalance periodically?

All in. This is play money. Money I can afford to lose. I am still waiting out a little longer, but still may take the gamble. I did the same thing with BP stock last year during the oil leak and also overbought stocks in 2009. So we'll see how this one goes if I decide to pull the trigger.

Lone Wolf wrote:Thank you for the link to the google page for donations to the Japanese Red Cross.

Yes donations I'm sure are appreciated for the victims.

I had the same (dark) thought y'day.  "Blood in the streets" and all that.  I like EWJ, preferably below 8.

longeyes wrote: I had the same (dark) thought y'day.  "Blood in the streets" and all that.  I like EWJ, preferably below 8.

Yes, same thoughts, but also "never catch a falling knive". If that number 2 Fukushima reactor gets out of hand...

I do not think that Japan is going to be a buy for a long time.

I wish I didn't feel that way, and I hope for the best possible outcome.

It's really a terrible combination of bad events.

If someone wanted to invest based on this catastrophe I would say short the entire nuclear power industry.  That business just got a LOT more expensive to operate.

Japan wasn't really a great investment before the quake/tidal wave.  That's certainly a consideration.

If the dollar strengthening continues, another play on Japan would be to invest in foreign nuclear stocks - assuming nuclear rebounds and the dollar goes back down, one would get the benefit of both the rebound plus exchange rate changes.  I happened to invest in BTE (a Canadian oil trust) when the dollar was really strong in early 2009 and sold once the dollar had weakened in 2010, getting more than a twofer between appreciation in the stock plus currency appreciation.

I think the nuclear situation is just beginning to unravel.  Earlier today, they had to evacuate all workers from the plant due to the radiation, so there were several hours where the fires just burned; exposed rods must be continuing to melt.  Now it seems that all 6 reactors are completely starting to meltdown, including a huge amount of spent fuel in the holding pools that might start chain reacting again and has no containment.

The Japanese government has been censoring information.  They publish the radiation levels on a website, but censor the results from the closest regions in order to prevent a panic evacuation.

See this website for an interactive map with population levels and radiation levels:  http://www.targetmap.com/viewer.aspx?reportId=4870

Not surprisingly, Miyagi and Fukushima are completely N/A, as every single reading is Under Survey, also known as censored.

I think the world is going to learn a lot more about holding pools in the weeks and months ahead.

I read an analysis a while back about how in an EMP event the holding pools were the larger problem, since there is less containment capability of the holding pools than in the reactors.  It looks like that is what is unfolding before our eyes right now except that the multiple power system failure came from a tsunami rather than an EMP burst.

Yes the holding pools are extremely dangerous. Out where I am we have Hanford which is the most toxic nuclear waste site in the Western Hemisphere. The pools of spent fuel were cracked and they were just a bad earthquake away from a major radiological event. Thankfully, they have been decommissioned and the most of the entire site has been taken offline.

I've been occasionally watching the NHK World stream over the past few days — and comparing the coverage to the BBC and American newscasts. It's very eery and troubling to see the tragedy unfolding in real time — particularly from the perspective of the Japanese media.

One thing I have noticed is that the Japanese media and government are doing their best to keep people calm and are generally downplaying the severity of the nuclear accident without actually outright lying to the public. They are walking a fine line. Meanwhile, the BBC and American newscasts are reporting the situation as very dire.

Perhaps the Japanese media and government believe that it's more responsible to downplay the event when possible — to avoid mass chaos — but the empty store shelves in Tokyo suggest that the public is more fearful. And rightly so. I can't imagine what it must be like to live through a tragedy like that. Not knowing what to believe, and likely being led into a false sense of relative security. It makes me feel queasy just thinking about it.

Gumby wrote: I've been occasionally watching the NHK World stream over the past few days — and comparing the coverage to the BBC and American newscasts. It's very eery and troubling to see the tragedy unfolding in real time — particularly from the perspective of the Japanese media.

One thing I have noticed is that the Japanese media and government are doing their best to keep people calm and are generally downplaying the severity of the nuclear accident without actually outright lying to the public. They are walking a fine line. Meanwhile, the BBC and American newscasts are reporting the situation as very dire.

Perhaps the Japanese media and government believe that it's more responsible to downplay the event when possible — to avoid mass chaos — but the empty store shelves in Tokyo suggest that the public is more fearful. And rightly so. I can't imagine what it must be like to live through a tragedy like that. Not knowing what to believe, and likely being led into a false sense of relative security. It makes me feel queasy just thinking about it.

Your reaction is very understandable.  I've noticed some backtracking in American media coverage, even as the situation has gotten worse.  The earlier reports by scientifically illiterate reporters were often little more than "yaada yadda meltdown yada yada chernobyl yada yada explosion yada yada rising health fears yada yada."  This is too important an issue to be handled without benefit of hard comparative data, which is finally making its way into evening news reports.

http://ireport.cnn.com/docs/DOC-573238

This is 70km away from Fukushima.

Storm wrote: http://ireport.cnn.com/docs/DOC-573238

This is 70km away from Fukushima.

That is dramatic, but it is just a geiger counter.  Doesn't necessarily mean there's going to be a meltdown or that the area will be permanently radioactive. 

Still...I would not be happy if I walked outside near my house with a Geiger counter and that happened to me.

Here's a story that flies in the face of conventional wisdom.

http://townhall.com/columnists/anncoult ... _radiation

Ann Coulter is always such a breath of fresh air : )

Who knows...maybe it's true, but I wouldn't make that conclusion based on the data presented in the article.

That video is tantalizing but a little too short to get much info out of.  My understanding is that Geiger counters can have their sensitivity configured over a pretty wide range, so you don't automatically have all of your hair fall out when one is "pegged" like that.

Regardless, it's never comforting to watch one of those things tick like that.

just bought ewj