Double-Weighting Stock Component of Permanent Portfolio?

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Coffee
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Double-Weighting Stock Component of Permanent Portfolio?

Post by Coffee »

2X - VTI
1X - SHY
1X - SGOL
1X - TLT

Didn't Clive or Wonk or somebody do some back testing on this type of allocation?  I seem to remember it, but can't find it. 
(Or maybe it was just one of those "Permanent Portfolio" dreams??)
"Now remember, when things look bad and it looks like you're not gonna make it, then you gotta get mean. I mean plumb, mad-dog mean. 'Cause if you lose your head and you give up then you neither live nor win. That's just the way it is. "
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craigr
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Re: Double-Weighting Stock Component of Permanent Portfolio?

Post by craigr »

There is no problem doing this if you count 1X of the stock as part of your variable portfolio. Just realize the extra volatility involved. For those wanting to reach for the brass ring for extra returns, I typically recommend taking the risk on more stocks as a long term play. But again there are increased risks.

4 x 25% Split 1972-2010 CAGR: 9.66%
Modified 2X Stock and 1X other components (40% Stocks 20% Bonds/ST Bonds(cash)/Gold) 1972-2010 Split: 9.94%

So not a huge CAGR difference overall. I'd consider anything less than around 0.5-1.0% difference in CAGR to be market noise.

But you get slightly more volatility in the modified approach. In 2008 the modified portfolio was down -7.98% vs. -0.71% for the standard portfolio using Simba's spreadhsheet numbers for instance.
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Re: Double-Weighting Stock Component of Permanent Portfolio?

Post by Coffee »

Thanks for that.  Much appreciated.
- Adam.
"Now remember, when things look bad and it looks like you're not gonna make it, then you gotta get mean. I mean plumb, mad-dog mean. 'Cause if you lose your head and you give up then you neither live nor win. That's just the way it is. "
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buddtholomew
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Re: Double-Weighting Stock Component of Permanent Portfolio?

Post by buddtholomew »

I'm eager to hear back from the OP. Why do they feel the need to own PRPFX and the HB PP?
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool" --Feynman.
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Re: Double-Weighting Stock Component of Permanent Portfolio?

Post by Coffee »

Budd:

I think maybe you replied to the wrong thread? But since I own both, I'll answer anyway.  ;D My reasoning was that the Fund would give me a little broader diversification, while still adhering to the underlying principle of the PP.
"Now remember, when things look bad and it looks like you're not gonna make it, then you gotta get mean. I mean plumb, mad-dog mean. 'Cause if you lose your head and you give up then you neither live nor win. That's just the way it is. "
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