Gyroscopic Investing

I have only a basic acquaintance with technical analysis.  Starting in mid-December,  though, VTI seems to be developing a pennant formation that appears to be descending.  I am not sure if I recall the implications of ascending vs. descending but a pennant formation, if this is one, ends with a breakout.  Up or down?  i have forgotten the implication.

As usual, any help?  And is this a pennant formation?

I have no idea what any of that means, and because I invest my money in the Permanent Portfolio, I don't have to!

[quote=http://thepatternsite.com/pennants.html]Important Bull Market Results* for Pennants

Overall performance rank for up/down breakouts (1 is best): Not applicable
Break even failure rate for up/down breakouts: 2%; 4%
Average rise/decline: 25%; 19%
Throwback/pullback rate: 47%; 31%
Percentage meeting price target for up/down breakouts: 60%; 51%

The above numbers are based on hundreds of perfect trades. See the glossary for definitions.

* The performance results for pennants are based on the short-term price swing, not the change from the breakout to the ultimate high or low as in most other chart patterns.[/quote]

Thanks, MG.

I have a pennant formation in my pants after looking at the price of TLT today.

But seriously, bedraggled, I would not put much stock into technical analyses like these. They can only get you in trouble.
Don't take my word for it, but take Harry Browne's.
Play the long game.




bah!

dualstow wrote: I have a pennant formation in my pants after looking at the price of TLT today.

That's the first laugh-out-loud moment I've had on this forum. Thanks, Dualstow.

And I thought this thread was going to be about baseball

I mentioned the pennant formation possibility to suggest within a couple of months(?) stocks may cease being boring and make a significant move either up or down.

bedraggled wrote: I mentioned the pennant formation possibility to suggest within a couple of months(?) stocks may cease being boring and make a significant move either up or down.

Are they boring now? I see massive swings every week including a 250-pt drop since the last closing.

Dualstow,

Yeah, VTI is boring.  Churning is no fun.

I like the way you people keep me accountable, though.  So…I mentioned the pennant formation idea so we all might ponder what is going on with the near future. 

All hail Harry, so don't mess with the 4x25!  But if scared international money pours into VTI, we might have an idea of why it is happening.  We then contemplate, or curse the discipline of, the 35/15 bands.

Knowing a bit of technical analysis adds to my fun and I don't know that much.  If this is a pennant formation with a breakout to the upside, you may wish to sharpen those rebalancing skills.  Simply, it is fun to consider.  And when my notion goes down the drain, so does the need to rebalance.  THat could be good, too.

Finally, all that is needed is the PP 4x25.

bedraggled wrote: All hail Harry, so don't mess with the 4x25! 

Haha. I mean ... even Harry talked about checking but once a year, but checking in if something really strange was going on. So now when an asset is moving really fast, be it up or down, we are left to wonder, is this an unusual event? Should we take action? What would Harry do with bond yields like these?

I certainly don't know. But as I have written in the past, if Medium Tex, Craig, Kevin et al decided to do something differently, I'd probably follow them. They're wiser than I am.