Stock scream room

Discussion of the Stock portion of the Permanent Portfolio

Moderator: Global Moderator

User avatar
Tortoise
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1174
Joined: Sat Nov 06, 2010 2:35 am

Re: Stock scream room

Post by Tortoise » Wed Dec 19, 2018 1:39 pm

If they had predicted the timing of the stock market downturn in advance, then I'd be impressed.

Just about anybody can look at a stock market graph and say, "Yup, sure looks like the graph has been sloping down for the past month or two," and then tell a story that rationalizes why it might continue to go down for a while.

::)
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 8616
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: next to emotional support peacock
Contact:

Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Wed Dec 19, 2018 1:42 pm

Yep. I love that people can make a living off of it.
Turns out you *can* profit from predictions, but only if you are the predictor. And you don't have to be right!
Dean Foods ⇢ Chapter 11
User avatar
Cortopassi
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1502
Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:28 pm
Location: Illinois

Re: Stock scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:16 pm

My rebalance for Jan has turned from cash going into about 50% bonds and 50% gold and selling some stocks to

6% bonds, 17% gold and 75% stocks.

I'm not sure I like the turn of this....

My PP at a low for the year now.
User avatar
Xan
Administrator
Administrator
Posts: 2312
Joined: Tue Mar 13, 2012 1:51 pm

Re: Stock scream room

Post by Xan » Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:46 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:16 pm
My PP at a low for the year now.
They have medicine for that now. :-)
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 8616
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: next to emotional support peacock
Contact:

Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:52 pm

Xan wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:46 pm
Cortopassi wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:16 pm
My PP at a low for the year now.
They have medicine for that now. :-)
That crosses my mind every damn time I use pp in a sentence. O0
Dean Foods ⇢ Chapter 11
User avatar
Cortopassi
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1502
Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:28 pm
Location: Illinois

Re: Stock scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Dec 19, 2018 4:20 pm

dualstow wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:52 pm
Xan wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:46 pm
Cortopassi wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:16 pm
My PP at a low for the year now.
They have medicine for that now. :-)
That crosses my mind every damn time I use pp in a sentence. O0
HAH!
User avatar
Smith1776
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 229
Joined: Fri Apr 21, 2017 6:01 pm

Re: Stock scream room

Post by Smith1776 » Wed Dec 19, 2018 10:36 pm

It’s funniest when people are arguing about the strategy and keep saying “PP” in the middle of a bunch of serious statements. ;D
Early to bed and early to rise makes a man healthy, wealthy, and wise.
User avatar
ochotona
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2818
Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2015 5:54 am

Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Thu Dec 20, 2018 12:31 am

A lot of the stock market selling he's going to turn out to be tax-loss harvesting. people talk about a Santa Claus rally but the Santa Claus rally really doesn't statistically take place until after Christmas.

Postscript Dec 25 - Lance Roberts looking for 2620-2650 as a possible oversold rally target.
whatchamacallit
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 200
Joined: Mon Oct 01, 2012 7:32 pm

Re: Stock scream room

Post by whatchamacallit » Wed Dec 26, 2018 3:09 pm

Wow. Up 5% today. Great example of reason to never get out of market. Even for a day.
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 8616
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: next to emotional support peacock
Contact:

Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Wed Dec 26, 2018 3:10 pm

whatchamacallit wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 3:09 pm
Wow. Up 5% today. Great example of reason to never get out of market. Even for a day.
+1. Time in the market not timing the market.
Dean Foods ⇢ Chapter 11
User avatar
Cortopassi
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1502
Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:28 pm
Location: Illinois

Re: Stock scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Dec 26, 2018 11:23 pm

Not every day you see 1000 points, wow.

Still, my rebalance is now buy 98% stocks, a sliver of bonds, and actually selling gold. Interesting.

We'll see what that looks like when I really will rebalance in early Jan after contributing to my IRAs.
User avatar
Kriegsspiel
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1801
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2012 5:28 pm

Re: Stock scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Thu Dec 27, 2018 8:42 am

dualstow wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 3:10 pm
whatchamacallit wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 3:09 pm
Wow. Up 5% today. Great example of reason to never get out of market. Even for a day.
+1. Time in the market not timing the market.
https://web.archive.org/web/20170911171 ... -time.html
Post Reply