Stock scream room

Discussion of the Stock portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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dualstow
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Sun Jan 27, 2019 9:10 am

Wow, Willie the Groundskeeper has fallen on hard times.
(I apologize in advance for this comment.I do think about the homeless. I see them daily as well).

Relocation: a Canadian cousin of mine told me they used to bus the homeless to Manitoba whether they wanted to go or not, in the 1960s. From where, I cannot recall. Toronto, I think.
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sophie
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by sophie » Sun Jan 27, 2019 9:46 am

Exporting the homeless...wow, talk about "not in my backyard."

I love how people like to blame "lack of affordable housing" - that's a load of B-S. There's always affordable housing, you just have to travel a bit (like, inland in the case of southern California) to find it. The problem is you can't do that if you're mentally ill. I don't care what the official stats say, that's true of the vast majority of homeless and probably virtually all of the long-term homeless. How about passing a law making it easier to declare a person incompetent? Right now, the bar for that is too high. A legacy of "one flew over the cuckoo's nest" apparently.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Sun Jan 27, 2019 11:01 am

sophie wrote:
Sun Jan 27, 2019 9:46 am
I love how people like to blame "lack of affordable housing" - that's a load of B-S. There's always affordable housing, you just have to travel a bit (like, inland in the case of southern California) to find it.
I also think it's a mistake to require landlords to maintain rental properties at a certain level. It's not heart-warming, but slummy properties are what really poor people can afford. If you require landlords to spend too much money on properties versus what they're going to be able to collect in rent, they're not going to do it. Ergo, affordable housing crisis. That's at the extreme low-end of the spectrum of course, but I suspect that the "affordable housing crisis" for lower middle class people results from the cognitive dissonance of them thinking they should be able to afford a much nicer property than they can. Or the inverse, they're house poor (rent poor?) because they won't accept living in the type of housing they can afford in their area, which probably leans towards the slummy side of the spectrum. So they spend too much of their income on a property they think they deserve, which leaves too little for everything else, and they think they've been wronged.
The problem is you can't do that if you're mentally ill. I don't care what the official stats say, that's true of the vast majority of homeless and probably virtually all of the long-term homeless. How about passing a law making it easier to declare a person incompetent? Right now, the bar for that is too high. A legacy of "one flew over the cuckoo's nest" apparently.
I think I could agree with this, but with regards to the bolded: why?
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To sleep: perchance to dream: ay, there's the rub;
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by pugchief » Sun Jan 27, 2019 1:12 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Sun Jan 27, 2019 11:01 am

I also think it's a mistake to require landlords to maintain rental properties at a certain level. It's not heart-warming, but slummy properties are what really poor people can afford. If you require landlords to spend too much money on properties versus what they're going to be able to collect in rent, they're not going to do it. Ergo, affordable housing crisis. That's at the extreme low-end of the spectrum of course, but I suspect that the "affordable housing crisis" for lower middle class people results from the cognitive dissonance of them thinking they should be able to afford a much nicer property than they can. Or the inverse, they're house poor (rent poor?) because they won't accept living in the type of housing they can afford in their area, which probably leans towards the slummy side of the spectrum. So they spend too much of their income on a property they think they deserve, which leaves too little for everything else, and they think they've been wronged.
It amazes me that anyone wants to be a landlord in Cali, SF in particular. The taxes make charging adequate rent to be profitable, the local government makes all of the laws pro-tenant / anti-owner, and then they even talk about rent-control. Seriously?
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Kriegsspiel
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Sun Jan 27, 2019 2:47 pm

pugchief wrote:
Sun Jan 27, 2019 1:12 pm
It amazes me that anyone wants to be a landlord in Cali, SF in particular. The taxes make charging adequate rent to be profitable, the local government makes all of the laws pro-tenant / anti-owner, and then they even talk about rent-control. Seriously?
Johnny writes about SF real estate a lot. Like:
The family that just bought [a 3 unit building] purchased it in a completely vacant condition so whoever was renting the two apartments were persuaded to leave before the sale. Empty buildings sell for a serious premium compared to those offered with protected rent controlled tenants. I have no knowledge of the particulars in this case, but the most common arrangement is for the seller to pay old tenants to leave voluntarily. That money is readily regained after the sale. I have several friends who were long time renters who were each paid $100,000 to leave desirable properties. That’s not enough for a down payment on anything here in San Francisco, but it allows people to start over elsewhere if they have a good plan. The pay outs are faster and cheaper than litigation and eviction and an extra couple hundred thousand dollars is a rounding error given the sale price.
The stove was immediately removed from the attic apartment. Without it the attic is merely a collection of extra rooms. Why rent? The legal dynamics make being a landlord in San Francisco extremely unpleasant. Rental income isn’t the primary concern for a family that can afford this sort of house. The basement was never legally rentable anyway so it’s now a storage space. The house is merely reverting to what it was when it was originally built – a comfortable single family home.[/b] link
And this one, which starts off, "Among my many friends here in San Francisco is a guy who works in the field of affordable housing."

Many of his articles make it seem like illegal apartments (like Christina Blasey Ford's) are everywhere along the Californian coast.
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To sleep: perchance to dream: ay, there's the rub;
For in that sleep of death what dreams may come
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by boglerdude » Sun Jan 27, 2019 10:30 pm

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Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Mon Mar 04, 2019 11:08 am

Stocks getting a pretty big reversal and hard rejection today at a strong resistance level (2820). I think that we are starting to see the sell the news on the trade agreement starting to play out. Going to be very interesting what happens here. I think that this next month or two is really going to decide the fate of the long term trend. If we clear this resistance level I think that we are likely to test new highs this year. If we reject and get a next leg down, I think the 2600-2650 area is going to be the support level that will be the line in the sand where if we lose that level we are officially in a new primary downtrend, but if support holds it's a sign that the up trend that started in 09 is still in tact. If we lose 2600 things could get real ugly, real fast.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Mon Mar 04, 2019 11:32 am

Ned Davis Research 3/1/19

If our Chief Global Investment Strategist’s current expectations are correct, global stocks will soon descend toward an oversold condition last seen in December. Defensive sectors would be the likely outperformers, with cyclical sectors underperforming.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Fri Mar 15, 2019 3:12 pm

Weekly close at 2822... Really curious to see what happens next week. Are we going to break out and attempt to retest the highs or are we going to reject and have another leg down? We are dancing right on that border line. We've rejected right at 2820 5 times since October. 10 year bond yields broke down and lost support this week, so we have a divergence of the bond market growing more bearish while the stock market is trying to rally over a very strong resistance level. Gonna be an interesting week next week to see how this resolves!
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by jacksonM » Fri Mar 15, 2019 4:52 pm

pmward wrote:
Fri Mar 15, 2019 3:12 pm
Weekly close at 2822... Really curious to see what happens next week. Are we going to break out and attempt to retest the highs or are we going to reject and have another leg down? We are dancing right on that border line. We've rejected right at 2820 5 times since October. 10 year bond yields broke down and lost support this week, so we have a divergence of the bond market growing more bearish while the stock market is trying to rally over a very strong resistance level. Gonna be an interesting week next week to see how this resolves!
No offense intended and I really do mean that but that whole paragraph is nothing but meaningless gibberish to me. I don't understand a word of it and am thankful for it.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Fri Mar 15, 2019 5:05 pm

jacksonM wrote:
Fri Mar 15, 2019 4:52 pm
pmward wrote:
Fri Mar 15, 2019 3:12 pm
Weekly close at 2822... Really curious to see what happens next week. Are we going to break out and attempt to retest the highs or are we going to reject and have another leg down? We are dancing right on that border line. We've rejected right at 2820 5 times since October. 10 year bond yields broke down and lost support this week, so we have a divergence of the bond market growing more bearish while the stock market is trying to rally over a very strong resistance level. Gonna be an interesting week next week to see how this resolves!
No offense intended and I really do mean that but that whole paragraph is nothing but meaningless gibberish to me. I don't understand a word of it and am thankful for it.
It's Friday, go have a beer, then it will make sense.
PMWARD, the week after "quad witching" (today) can be a bit bearish.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Fri Mar 15, 2019 6:19 pm

jacksonM wrote:
Fri Mar 15, 2019 4:52 pm
No offense intended and I really do mean that but that whole paragraph is nothing but meaningless gibberish to me. I don't understand a word of it and am thankful for it.
Haha, it just means that technically speaking we are kind of at an inflection point in the market where it's likely to either shoot us back up to the October highs really fast, or shoot us back down. One way or another, next week has high odds of being volatile.

And yes I've read some interesting things about this particular quad witching. Either way, it is very interesting to see such a difference between the markets, with bond investors looking bearish and stock investors looking bullish on the economy.
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