Stock scream room

Discussion of the Stock portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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ochotona
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Wed Sep 12, 2018 6:02 am

CNBC - Hedge fund billionaire Ray Dalio may be warning about the economy, but Wall Street bull Jeff Saut isn't changing his thesis.

March 2019 will mark the 10th year of this bull market, and "We ought to have another seven to eight years left," he said.
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eufo
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by eufo » Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:11 pm

ochotona wrote:
Wed Sep 12, 2018 6:02 am
CNBC - Hedge fund billionaire Ray Dalio may be warning about the economy, but Wall Street bull Jeff Saut isn't changing his thesis.

March 2019 will mark the 10th year of this bull market, and "We ought to have another seven to eight years left," he said.
We ought to have peace and prosperity in perpetuity.
Don't agree with me too strongly or I'm going to change my mind
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu Sep 13, 2018 6:43 pm

Market crash or another 7 years of prosperity? It’s all too stressful to think about. I need to calm down with some chamomile tea and Serena Williams news items.
de-fang the snake, said my filipino kali instructor. Shortly after that, he hit me in the head with a rattan stick.
— Desert, 2016 (Nomad clothing thread)
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ochotona
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Thu Sep 13, 2018 10:33 pm

Charles Nenner has stopped screaming about Dow 5,000. Listening to "Market Wrap" by Moe Ansari podcast. He does see dis-inflation / deflation coming back. Bond rally.

Oh wait... now he says "a huge bear market continuing into 2021". Moe is feigning genuine curiosity as he asks Nenner. He invites Nenner on for some extra color.

Oh, and gold $2500, but it could touch $1050 first.

He likes gold and bonds.
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buddtholomew
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Fri Sep 14, 2018 6:53 am

ochotona wrote:
Thu Sep 13, 2018 10:33 pm
Charles Nenner has stopped screaming about Dow 5,000. Listening to "Market Wrap" by Moe Ansari podcast. He does see dis-inflation / deflation coming back. Bond rally.

Oh wait... now he says "a huge bear market continuing into 2021". Moe is feigning genuine curiosity as he asks Nenner. He invites Nenner on for some extra color.

Oh, and gold $2500, but it could touch $1050 first.

He likes gold and bonds.
Nenner’s notes should go back into the drawer...hahah; love Moe on the other hand...”Hopium”
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ochotona
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Fri Sep 14, 2018 3:16 pm

Professor Shiller predicting 2.6% annual forward return on US stocks for next decade.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by sophie » Sat Sep 15, 2018 8:33 am

ochotona wrote:
Fri Sep 14, 2018 3:16 pm
Professor Shiller predicting 2.6% annual forward return on US stocks for next decade.
Perfect indication to buy more stocks!!!!

Ochotona you seriously need to read Harry Browne's book, How the Best-Laid Investment Plans Usually Go Wrong. He does a very thorough debunking of virtually all prediction strategies. By the time you're done with it, you'll just laugh at stuff like this.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Sat Sep 15, 2018 10:00 am

What Sophie said.


Also, wasn’t Shiller far more positive a short while ago? Maybe a year ago, two at most.
He stressed that he wasn’t making a prediction, but he was quite optimistic.
de-fang the snake, said my filipino kali instructor. Shortly after that, he hit me in the head with a rattan stick.
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ochotona
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Sat Sep 15, 2018 2:53 pm

ochotona wrote:
Fri Sep 14, 2018 3:16 pm
Professor Shiller predicting 2.6% annual forward return on US stocks for next decade.
I post bull and bear predictions for amusement. Some say SP 500 to 3500, others say 700. You have to laugh.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Kbg » Sat Sep 15, 2018 3:00 pm

Fundamental long term projected return measures are actually quite good in their accuracy...just not in the timing. Seems like it is contradictory but it is not. Bonds are utterly predictable...expect the coupon return over multiple iterations. The only thing that is going to make the PP perform well going forward is Mr. Wildcard, gold. The other three assets are not going to do all that great over the next decade.
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buddtholomew
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Sun Sep 16, 2018 12:08 pm

Kbg wrote:
Sat Sep 15, 2018 3:00 pm
Fundamental long term projected return measures are actually quite good in their accuracy...just not in the timing. Seems like it is contradictory but it is not. Bonds are utterly predictable...expect the coupon return over multiple iterations. The only thing that is going to make the PP perform well going forward is Mr. Wildcard, gold. The other three assets are not going to do all that great over the next decade.
I think Bogle was quoted as saying “lower than average” stock returns going forward...only problem is that prediction was made circa 2013 and we all know how that’s turned out...

There’s no reason to expect higher or lower stock returns over the next decade. The end. Close book and start a new one.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Kbg » Mon Sep 17, 2018 7:31 am

buddtholomew wrote:
Sun Sep 16, 2018 12:08 pm
Kbg wrote:
Sat Sep 15, 2018 3:00 pm
Fundamental long term projected return measures are actually quite good in their accuracy...just not in the timing. Seems like it is contradictory but it is not. Bonds are utterly predictable...expect the coupon return over multiple iterations. The only thing that is going to make the PP perform well going forward is Mr. Wildcard, gold. The other three assets are not going to do all that great over the next decade.
I think Bogle was quoted as saying “lower than average” stock returns going forward...only problem is that prediction was made circa 2013 and we all know how that’s turned out...

There’s no reason to expect higher or lower stock returns over the next decade. The end. Close book and start a new one.
BuddT,

That’s not how these predictions work. In 2023, we check and see what the average annualized return was over the period from when the prediction was made.
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