Stock scream room

Discussion of the Stock portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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ochotona
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Tue Aug 07, 2018 9:50 am

All time high on SCHX, presumably S&P500 also.
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buddtholomew
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Tue Aug 07, 2018 5:33 pm

Just reached 35.03% in PP equities with 55/45 SP500 and SCV. No other assets are out of tolerance but future contributions will go to Gold. Just haven’t decided whether to exchange from SCV or Cash.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by D1984 » Tue Aug 07, 2018 5:35 pm

ochotona wrote:
Tue Aug 07, 2018 9:50 am
All time high on SCHX, presumably S&P500 also.

The S&P 500 PR (price only) is just below its January 26th 2018 high.

The S&P 500 TR did indeed hit a new all-time high (the January high was 5606 and today's close was just shy of 5635) so it makes sense that the ETF would hit an all-time high since it includes reinvested dividends as well.
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buddtholomew
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Tue Aug 21, 2018 12:39 pm

Can someone theorize why SCV is outperforming even with a weaker USD? Isn’t the narrative a stronger USD is more competitive for the Domestic small company?
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Kbg
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Kbg » Tue Aug 21, 2018 3:54 pm

I'm not sure this observation really holds anymore.

- Big companies are pretty good at being global which lessens the currency impact

- It's not hard to be a small company and sell globally anymore

If I were to guess, it's a simple rotation into something that has been lagging for quite a while, meanwhile larger stocks are super pricey.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by boglerdude » Wed Aug 22, 2018 12:34 am

Business sentiment is good cuz Trump (deregulation). But who knows, speculative money flows around asset classes.

But is SCV cheap? SmallCap 600 Value ETF, PE = -25
https://www.etf.com/RZV
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Kbg
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Kbg » Wed Aug 22, 2018 8:16 am

As a broad generalized statement, nothing in the US market is cheap.
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ochotona
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Thu Aug 23, 2018 11:46 pm

Politico -

Wall Street pros often talk about a potential relief rally if Trump departs the White House early.

The underlying economy would remain strong, and a hypothetical President Mike Pence would likely continue Trump’s policy of low taxes and fewer regulations without all the wild tweeting and investigations and persistent trade wars.

“I’m not sure the market would be all that upset by Trump being forced to leave,” said Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at the Leuthold Group. “Many Republicans might welcome it, and if Pence moves in, the basic low regulation, low tax nature of the presidency would be the same, only without the constant self-induced volatility, and maybe ‘trade wars' would diminish.”
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ochotona
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Fri Aug 31, 2018 7:47 am

CNBC had some trader on two days ago who was projecting an upside of 3400-3500 on the SP500, and that would be the top of the rally from March 2009. 20% more... if true, another few years?
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Fri Aug 31, 2018 2:09 pm

ochotona wrote:
Thu Aug 23, 2018 11:46 pm
a hypothetical President Mike Pence would likely continue Trump’s policy of low taxes and fewer regulations without all the wild tweeting and investigations and persistent trade wars.
Sounds good! I would welcome a hypothetical Mike Pence into the White House. The real one, I'm still a little leery of, heh heh.
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ochotona
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Tue Sep 04, 2018 6:44 pm

ochotona wrote:
Fri Aug 31, 2018 7:47 am
CNBC had some trader on two days ago who was projecting an upside of 3400-3500 on the SP500, and that would be the top of the rally from March 2009. 20% more... if true, another few years?
OMG Credit Suisse just came out with a 3350 call for SP500 by end of 2019! Sounds like fun, but when this binch rolls over it will not be fun. Hussman is gonna have a stroke. Gartman, too.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Tue Sep 04, 2018 7:03 pm

Bring on the exuberance.
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