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Retirement's Volatility Bogeyman

Posted: Fri Jun 13, 2014 7:48 pm
by MachineGhost

Re: Retirement's Volatility Bogeyman

Posted: Sat Jun 14, 2014 12:33 am
by Tyler
That's really interesting.  Thanks for sharing.

One more reason to like the PP as a retirement portfolio.

Re: Retirement's Volatility Bogeyman

Posted: Sat Jun 14, 2014 12:37 am
by dragoncar
Interesting but I don't entirely understand. Does this essentially mean you are selling equities when the volatility goes up?  Can the results be due to correlation between volatility and momentum signals?  Ie is it really volatility that is important here or market timing?

Re: Retirement's Volatility Bogeyman

Posted: Sat Jun 14, 2014 6:37 am
by MachineGhost
dragoncar wrote: Interesting but I don't entirely understand. Does this essentially mean you are selling equities when the volatility goes up?  Can the results be due to correlation between volatility and momentum signals?  Ie is it really volatility that is important here or market timing?
Yeah, its basically rebalancing when the volatility gets too out of whack.  Commissions and taxes need to be fully figured into this before deciding on something as frequent as a monthly check.  I suppose this is a form of market timing without market timing just as band rebalancing is.

Re: Retirement's Volatility Bogeyman

Posted: Sun Jun 15, 2014 12:39 pm
by Tyler
...or you can simply stick to a well-diversified portfolio that delivers comparable average returns with a fraction of the volatility of a traditional stock/bond mix. 

The study is interesting, as it helps explain some of the research I've done for a PP SWR.  The idea that lowering volatility on the same rate of return can increase your SWR helps explain how the PP has historically done so well for a retiree relative to many other portfolios.