blackomen wrote:
When I get rich enough, the only one I'd ever consider investing in is Bridgewater's All Weather..
Not to nitpick (All-Weather is still a decent choice IMO as hedge funds go) but didn't it just post a negative return of around 4% last year when hedge funds overall averaged about 9%?
See:
http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/01/08/ ... er-returns
My main concern with a fund like this (or indeed with any risk parity or quasi-risk parity fund) would be that in order to have the bonds' portion risk equal that of stocks you only have one of four choices:
One, keep the duration/maturity VERY short (less than one or two years with a significant chunk in cash and equivalents),
Two, have upwards of two-thirds of the portfolio in bonds of intermediate duration on average (either a barbell, ladder/bullet, or actually in intermediate term securities),
Three, have the bond portion approximately equal in size to the stock portion but make it consist of bonds that are highly safe in their credity risk charactersistics but hugely risky in their interest-rate risk characteristics (long-duration Treasury zeros) so that when bonds overall do well as rates fall these bonds do
really well (of course the reverse is also unfortunately true...)
Four, keep an low-intermediate duration risk exposure but leverage it up by borrowing at short-term rates so you have 1.5X or 2X the exposure you would have if you weren't leveraged so that the bond chunk of the portfolio has roughly the same overall volatility risk as the stock and inflation-hedge sections of the portfolio
#1 will hurt returns over the long term (since cash almost always yields less than bonds over the long haul) plus you don't need a hedge fund manager just to do that (simply create an 80/20 with short-term bonds/cash and stocks and rebalance every year) and #s 2, 3, and 4 all will suffer badly to a larger or smaller degree when rates rise.
In fact, the latter is just what happened to All-Weather in the early summer of 2013 when the taper scare hit:
http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/2 ... -rain-wsj/
Naturally, they fixed it up AFTER the horse was already out of the barn:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-1 ... -fell.html
Like I said ealier, not a bad fund overall (one bad year does not a failure make) but if I'm paying two and twenty I would expect them to be smart enough to figure something basic like this out
before rates rose like they did.