Gyroscopic Investing

This fund has a 9% (approx) lifetime yearly ave. It outperformed from 2000 to 2010. It's been dead wood for a few years since. When will it resume average performance?

The fund, like the HBPP tends to be weakest during periods of very strong prosperity when the stock market is firing on all cylinders. FWIW I would take a deep breath before calling this prosperity, but the stock market has been on a tear while the other two volatile assets have been stuck in the mud. As of right now it looks like both PRPFX and the HBPP are heading for one of their rare, albeit slight, down years. If it's any consolation I don't remember PRPFX ever posting back to back down years. In fact I think all of its down years were followed by strong up years. Of course the future is unpredictable, but the great advantage to PRPFX aside from its being a good 1 stop shopping fund, is that you can sleep at night knowing that when everything goes to hell again, you're not likely to be taking a brutal haircut.

The CAGR of PRPFX since inception is 6.6%.  And given its significant underperformance relative to another conservative fund (Wellesley) for the first 20+ years of existence, it could continue to struggle for years.

portart wrote: When will it resume average performance?

Tuesday, July 18, 2023.

dualstow wrote:

portart wrote: When will it resume average performance?

Tuesday, July 18, 2023.

Is that in the morning or the afternoon?

It's hard to watch this fund flounder when the market moves relentlessly higher. It hit 50 bucks a share awhile back but has not challenged that number for a long time. The historical average for this fund seems almost like fiction now as it goes nowhere. Of course the minute I sell it, all hell will break loose in the marketplace. My only solace is that it is unlikely to fall apart. At this point I am not retired or using it so if, and when, it resumes growing I will be all in.

PRPFX is just doing what the PP as a whole is doing:



Of course we'd all prefer that the PP were having better performance, and it's tough to feel like you're not participating in a great stock rally. Having a stock-heavy VP can help in such a situation.

As for whether the PP will ever improve, and in what timeframe: who knows? Nobody can predict the future. We're all hoping the PP has a sunnier future but nobody can tell you if and when it will.

Pointedstick wrote: We're all hoping the PP has a sunnier future but nobody can tell you if and when it will.

Better than hope, we have reason to think it will resume going up.  I find those reasons are still just as solid today, after two down years, as they were in [pick your date] after a number of up years.

Reason is better than hope.

What are the reasons you see? What senario?

portart wrote: What are the reasons you see? What senario?

There are four such scenarios in which it would do well: Inflation, deflation, prosperity, and recession.  In three of those, it will do well by growing.  In the fourth, it will do well by doing less poorly than other investment portfolios.