Gyroscopic Investing

TennPaGa wrote: It turns out that the true secrets to winning the Powerball are acquired in the same way one acquires the secrets to beating the market.

Lustig says a guaranteed way to increase your chances of winning the lottery is simply by picking your own numbers versus using the "quick-pick" ticket option.

"The lazy way out is to buy quick-picks. The computer picks out the numbers. Don't play quick-picks. Quick-picks are the worst thing you can do, you are playing with the worst odds," he says.

Lustig believes that what matters is whether the set of numbers people pick is a good one or not. To know this out however, one has to research the numbers in a method only taught in his book, which, as we found out, he guards very closely ... unless you buy the book.

One secret Lustig will share is that he believes picking the same numbers regularly, even if you are losing, gives you more edge in the next drawing.

Actually, even though of course there is no way to pick better numbers in the sense of improving your chances to win, there is a way to pick better numbers in the sense that you will be less likely to have to split the prize if you do win.

Anyone want to guess what it is?

Assuming the numbers are actually random, all that really matters is that you want to minimize the probability that somebody else has your numbers.  Always using your birthday or any date related numbers practically guarantees you'll have to share the prize with somebody else. 

I like to buy last week's winning numbers.  Most people probably assume since the chances of the same numbers coming up twice in a row is ridiculously small that it's good to avoid last week's numbers.  However, since last week's numbers have already been picked, the chances that the same numbers come up next time are the same as the chances for any other numbers.

Of course, I lost this strategy in a terrible boating accident.

Somebody told me that this guy's formula for picking winning lotto tickets is also included in the back of Peter Schiff's next book.

rickb wrote: Assuming the numbers are actually random, all that really matters is that you want to minimize the probability that somebody else has your numbers.  Always using your birthday or any date related numbers practically guarantees you'll have to share the prize with somebody else. 

I like to buy last week's winning numbers.  Most people probably assume since the chances of the same numbers coming up twice in a row is ridiculously small that it's good to avoid last week's numbers.  However, since last week's numbers have already been picked, the chances that the same numbers come up next time are the same as the chances for any other numbers.

Of course, I lost this strategy in a terrible boating accident.

Yes, basically the idea is to make sure you include numbers that are above 31 so they aren't as likely to be picked by superstitious people who play their birthdays, etc.

I visited a website once that allowed you to simulate playing the lottery for weeks, months of years and to see how you would do.

Based upon a six number game, you can play for 10, 20 or even 30 years and still only have a handful of three and four number hits.

It was sort of eye opening.

But then again, someone will win, so your chances aren't any WORSE than anyone else's of picking the right numbers.

I bought a $2 ticket today through my office pool for the Texas lottery Powerball game.  I don't think I will win, but I can't stand the thought of being the only one left up here if the office pool DID win.  It's a good $2 investment just to avoid that mental discomfort.

Speaking of beating the odds did you all read what Obama said on Leno last night?

“The odds of dying in a terrorist attack are a lot lower than they are of dying in a car accident, unfortunately,”? Obama said.

Now we understand what the drone assassinations are all about. He wants to create more terrorists to even out the odds.

I always buy a couple of tickets when the pot gets this high.  Not because I have any real hope of winning, but because it allows me to enter into a head space where I can daydream at work about what I would do with the winnings during boring meetings.  Mostly things involving several thousand acres of heavily wooded ground with 300+ acre lakes completely enclosed on the property with the whole place fenced off.  That's worth a solid $4.

notsheigetz wrote: Speaking of beating the odds did you all read what Obama said on Leno last night?

“The odds of dying in a terrorist attack are a lot lower than they are of dying in a car accident, unfortunately,”? Obama said.

Now we understand what the drone assassinations are all about. He wants to create more terrorists to even out the odds.

That makes sense!

One of my favorite pieces of statistical trivia is that the number combination 1 2 3 4 5 6 has as good a chance as anything else of winning. 

AdamA wrote: One of my favorite pieces of statistical trivia is that the number combination 1 2 3 4 5 6 has as good a chance as anything else of winning.

Yes, every combination has the same chance as every other combination. However, some combinations are more likely to be played than others. Those combinations are more likely to cause a split win, which of course reduces your expected payoff. So the idea is to buy ones that are less likely to be played.

I think why so many people play and become addicted is that they have trouble contextualizing their odds of winning.  Imagine if you picked 40 people at random in your office.  What are the odds that you are one of the 40 picked?  Pretty good, I'd assume, but there's still probably a fair chance that you won't be picked; it's by no means a sure thing.  What if you expanded your "office" to your entire town?  Now it's looking pretty grim.  What about your entire state?  All of the US?  Now add in the billions of people in China, India, Brazil, Russia, etc.  Trying to actually imagine how big a crowd of 7 billion is is mind boggling.  The odds of you winning the Powerball are the same as being one of 40 people picked at random out of the entire world population.  It doesn't seem likely at all that you'll win now, does it? 

Nevertheless, I'll confess that I still bought one (and only one) ticket $245m lump sum after taxes is $123m.  I'll set aside $23m for a house, family, and friends, and for the other $100m, I'll put $25m each in stocks, LTTs, T-Bills, and gold!

Libertarian666 wrote:

AdamA wrote: One of my favorite pieces of statistical trivia is that the number combination 1 2 3 4 5 6 has as good a chance as anything else of winning.

Yes, every combination has the same chance as every other combination. However, some combinations are more likely to be played than others. Those combinations are more likely to cause a split win, which of course reduces your expected payoff. So the idea is to buy ones that are less likely to be played.

That's a good point and the reason I use the quick pick on the occasions when I actually but a lottery ticket. And like some other people here I dropped the $2 for a ticket today. I know I'm not going to win of course. But it's cheap entertainment. For a fraction of the cost of going to a movie I can day dream about how I will deal with an insane amount of money.

By the way, it is generally NOT a good idea to win a lot of money if you have no idea how to deal with it. See the TV show The Lottery Changed My Life for many horrible examples of this.

That show has another use too: if you feel that you need to paralyze your brain slightly, watching it can temporarily lower your IQ 10 points or so (not scientifically verified).

On the other hand, if you do know what to do with the money, it could be very nice, as long as you don't tell anyone you have won! Creating a trust to cash in the ticket is a very good idea, because in most states buying a ticket gives the lottery agency permission to use your name, etc.

I think that taking the 20 year payout would be better for most people. 

If they take the installment option, the worst thing that can happen to them is that they will have to wait a year to get another chunk of money.

When an unsophisticated person gets a large lump sum, it is often completely gone in a couple of years.

MediumTex wrote: I think that taking the 20 year payout would be better for most people. 

If they take the installment option, the worst thing that can happen to them is that they will have to wait a year to get another chunk of money.

When an unsophisticated person gets a large lump sum, it is often completely gone in a couple of years.

I completely agree. Most working and middle class people are just not prepared to deal with this kind of sudden wealth. Poor people? Not a chance. If you take the annuity your likely to lose some value over time from inflation, but you have a big insurance policy against stupidity.

Bad investments, bad relatives, bad friends, con artists, personal vices like drugs booze sex gambling can really hammer your sudden windfall into oblivion. Taking the annuity gives you the chance to make mistakes without ending up dead broke. And hopefully after a few years of being dumb and or blowing money mindlessly you will snap out of it.

Ad Orientem wrote:

MediumTex wrote: I think that taking the 20 year payout would be better for most people. 

If they take the installment option, the worst thing that can happen to them is that they will have to wait a year to get another chunk of money.

When an unsophisticated person gets a large lump sum, it is often completely gone in a couple of years.

I completely agree. Most working and middle class people are just not prepared to deal with this kind of sudden wealth. Poor people? Not a chance. If you take the annuity your likely to lose some value over time from inflation, but you have a big insurance policy against stupidity.

Bad investments, bad relatives, bad friends, con artists, personal vices like drugs booze sex gambling can really hammer your sudden windfall into oblivion. Taking the annuity gives you the chance to make mistakes without ending up dead broke. And hopefully after a few years of being dumb and or blowing money mindlessly you will snap out of it.

You cannot "snap out" of being a moron, and unfortunately, that is who wins most of the lottery prizes.
I'm sure I don't have to explain why that is to this group.

My wife just bought tickets, but what I was really excited to discover was that the 7-Eleven where we bought them has an AMAZON LOCKER! No more dealing with our awful post office. Amazon wins again.

If someone takes the annuity option and passes away, can the remaining winnings be willed to a relative?

Libertarian666 wrote:

Ad Orientem wrote:

MediumTex wrote: I think that taking the 20 year payout would be better for most people. 

If they take the installment option, the worst thing that can happen to them is that they will have to wait a year to get another chunk of money.

When an unsophisticated person gets a large lump sum, it is often completely gone in a couple of years.

I completely agree. Most working and middle class people are just not prepared to deal with this kind of sudden wealth. Poor people? Not a chance. If you take the annuity your likely to lose some value over time from inflation, but you have a big insurance policy against stupidity.

Bad investments, bad relatives, bad friends, con artists, personal vices like drugs booze sex gambling can really hammer your sudden windfall into oblivion. Taking the annuity gives you the chance to make mistakes without ending up dead broke. And hopefully after a few years of being dumb and or blowing money mindlessly you will snap out of it.

You cannot "snap out" of being a moron, and unfortunately, that is who wins most of the lottery prizes.
I'm sure I don't have to explain why that is to this group.

It's true that most people who win are ill equipped to handle the sudden wealth. And those with grave defects of character tend to be hard to reform. But I would not conflate that with a lack of intelligence. That is frequently just how some people were raised and educated (or not as the case may be). Twenty years ago I would not have been prepared for a massive windfall. But a lack of education can be remedied.

dualstow wrote: My wife just bought tickets, but what I was really excited to discover was that the 7-Eleven where we bought them has an AMAZON LOCKER! No more dealing with our awful post office. Amazon wins again.

If someone takes the annuity option and passes away, can the remaining winnings be willed to a relative?

Yes. If you win the first thing you want to do is photograph the ticket front and back and then lock it in a safe deposit box. Then call your attorney and ask for a referral to a tax and estate lawyer who handles big money clients and preferably has some experience with lottery winners.

AND DON'T TELL ANYONE YOU WON!

I generally think it would be a burden to win.

I think I've already written about it, but basically
- I already have enough money.
- I can't stop the wife from playing for fun
- If we win -- that's right. She wins = I win -- I will spend the next several days asking her to delay telling her relatives.
- my biggest fear: kidnapping.

Still, like many people here, I think a few bucks is worth the daydreams and conversations a few times a year.
It's fun!

Well it appears I have been spared this dreadful fate. I got one number which translates into nothing. I wonder who the bigger winner is.

I did not win.

What's an Amazon Locker?

MediumTex wrote: I did not win.

What's an Amazon Locker?

It's a place where you can pick up small items like books and CDs if you happen to have an unreliable post office, say one that leaves orange slips in your mail slot in lieu of a package, even when you're home, without so much as a single knock. Like my post office. Apparently, there is no additional charge for a customer to use one for receiving or returning packages, though they're not always available.

You punch in the code that Amazon texts or emails you, and the appropriate drawer opens.

Dualstow, you wrote "My wife just bought tickets, but what I was really excited to discover was that the 7-Eleven where we bought them has an AMAZON LOCKER! No more dealing with our awful post office. Amazon wins again." 

I have never heard of an AMAZON LOCKER - would you mind providing a little detail on what it is and how it works...and, how it helps you avoid dealing with the post office.

Thanks

Hi Bob,

Looks like Tenn beat me to the punch.
amazon.com/locker also has info, straight from the horse's mouth.

I should mention, though, that this does not replace a postbox. It is obviously only good for Amazon purchases. It just so happens that in my household, Amazon accounts for 99% of my parcels received & sent.

It is further limited by volume and weight. So, books and CDs shouldn't be a problem. A giant chiminea...maybe stick with The Home Depot.

I have not used the locker yet, but will definitely start when I return from my trip, as we'll be temporarily be living away from our permanent residence while we remodel.