Gyroscopic Investing

This should be interesting!

The wild card is who the next Fed chairman will be.  That will probably determine the timing more than anything.

If the Japan situation is any guide, though, we will likely be stuck at rates near zero for a long time and whatever additional liquidity/stimulative programs may be needed to keep the stock market from falling apart.

I think that's just where we're at. 

I do, however,  really wish that more discussion about the role of demographic changes on the economy was being worked into the discussion about Fed policy and where the economy is headed, considering how powerfully demographic trends influence economic output and asset pricing.

I believe that tapering will begin immediately after next year's elections. To do so in earnest before then would be too politically costly.