Gyroscopic Investing

Hi. After all of the recent negativity with the Permanent Portfolio I wanted to start a thread that would be positive and uplifting. Being that all 4 asset classes were up today, I thought that this might be a great time. Please remember, the future is unknowable but your financial plan is not.

Dammit.  I was planning on buying Treasuries and Gold but I've been too busy.  Why can't they still be down?! 

Now come on! You can be more positive than that!  Can't you?

Reub wrote: Hi. After all of the recent negativity with the Permanent Portfolio I wanted to start a thread that would be positive and uplifting. Being that all 4 asset classes were up today, I thought that this might be a great time. Please remember, the future is unknowable but your financial plan is not.

Cash was up today too? Wow! 

I recall a similar post not long ago to which Craig responded saying that he worries when all the assets go up at the same time because that means they can also go down at the same time.

And as all of us have observed recently he was absolutely correct.

I worry a lot less when they all go up together than when they all go down together...

WHY ARE THINGS GOING UP??? THIS IS NOT NORMAL!!!! AAAGGGHHHHHH!!!!!

I am starting to really feel those positive vibes. Now if only the Bernank cooperates tomorrow....

Well, it looks like the Bernank did his part at today's Q&A session, which took place after 4P.M. I think that the PP should reap the results tomorrow.

May I just kick myself for not rebalancing my 37% cash last week?

Khisanth wrote: May I just kick myself for not rebalancing my 37% cash last week?

Ha.

Don't fight the rebalance bands.

When I saw that the stock market set a new record I decided to check out how bad Gold and Bonds were hurt, as usual. Surprise, Surprise, EVERYTHING was WAY up. Has to be the biggest one day percent gain I've seen since I've been in the PP. How does this even happen? 

According to my Morningstar chart the PP is now only down 1.14% for the year.

Khisanth wrote: May I just kick myself for not rebalancing my 37% cash last week?

I think you missed the boat on that rebalancing omission and now all is lost.

Wait! That kind of negativity belongs in another thread, not this one.

It happened again! Everything up. What a great run for the PP these past 2 weeks.
I guess all of the naysayers are on vacation.

I wonder how poor Catacomb feels right now. If I recall, his time with the PP looked like this:

Yes, poor guy! (Literally)

Hilarious image.  I feel like market timers everywhere have to experience that a time or two (or 10) before they realize they will never win the market timing game.

chrikenn wrote: Hilarious image.  I feel like market timers everywhere have to experience that a time or two (or 10) before they realize they will never win the market timing game.

Some are even inadvertent market timers. Catacomb, if I recall correctly, was extremely risk-averse and mostly had his money in cash-ish instruments and panicked at the PP's unexpected volatility. Just goes to show you have to know what you're getting into. What looked like way too much risk to him probably looks way too conservative to a stock bug.

Pointedstick wrote: I wonder how poor Catacomb feels right now. If I recall, his time with the PP looked like this:

You know... that chart reminded me of something. Few people seem to realize that the Permanent Portfolio (or at least PRPFX) is pretty much an inverse of the value of the Dollar Index.

[align=center][/align]

So, when the dollar gets weaker, the Permanent Portfolio goes up. When the dollar gets stronger, the Permanent Portfolio goes down. The thing is... even when the Permanent Portfolio is going down, your dollars are worth more in the global marketplace. So, it's really not as bad as it looks. Conversely, when the PP is doing well, it's probably not doing as well as we think (since it implies that the dollar is getting weaker).

It makes me think that the Permanent Portfolio doesn't move nearly as much as we think it does. It probably just treads water most of the time in terms of what our savings can purchase in the global marketplace.

So, maybe when the PP is down, the best thing to do is just go on an international vacation and take advantage of good exchange rates.

I'm sure that the Catacombs out there are legion, and it's understandable,
but cheers to everyone who stayed the course.

dualstow wrote: I'm sure that the Catacombs out there are legion, and it's understandable,
but cheers to everyone who stayed the course.

I hate to sound like an investing robot, but panic is usually a pretty good contrary indicator.

Gumby wrote:
So, when the dollar gets weaker, the Permanent Portfolio goes up. When the dollar gets stronger, the Permanent Portfolio goes down. The thing is... even when the Permanent Portfolio is going down, your dollars are worth more in the global marketplace. So, it's really not as bad as it looks. Conversely, when the PP is doing well, it's probably not doing as well as we think (since it implies that the dollar is getting weaker).

It makes me think that the Permanent Portfolio doesn't move nearly as much as we think it does. It probably just treads water most of the time in terms of what our savings can purchase in the global marketplace.

So, maybe when the PP is down, the best thing to do is just go on an international vacation and take advantage of good exchange rates.

I observed this, too. But from an european view it looks like everytime the euro goes up against the dollar, the EU-PP goes up too. I don`t hope that this trend continues, because i want to be protected against currency loss and not the other way round.

Everything is up today!  The sun is out and birds are chirping!  What a wonderful day!  Yayyyyyyyy

dragoncar wrote: Everything is up today!  The sun is out and birds are chirping!  What a wonderful day!  Yayyyyyyyy

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZLd9MZYQwy0

Fidelity tells me that IAU closed up 3.10% today.