PP without gold

A place to talk about speculative investing ideas for the optional Variable Portfolio

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sk55
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PP without gold

Post by sk55 »

has anyone back tested the results of PP say

50% stocks
25% cash
25% long bonds.
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craigr
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Re: PP without gold

Post by craigr »

That portfolio would basically be:

50% Stocks
50% Intermediate bonds

That is a standard/mild-conservative allocation in the stock/bond portfolio world.

It will be fine, except under high inflation or inflation expectations. Then it would likely not have good real returns. So if you look at it, pay attention to the 1970s and 2000s to be sure you are happy with the performance.
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Ad Orientem
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Re: PP without gold

Post by Ad Orientem »

That's pretty close to what Jack Bogle advocates except he would suggest going with a TBM index fund. As per Craig it's not a horrible portfolio. But it is vulnerable to extreme economic crisis... i.e. severe inflation (inadequate hedge against currency crisis) or deflation (at 50% stock losses would likely outweigh bond gains).

If you wanted to do a Boglehead portfolio I would suggest using VT vice VTI as it gives at least some currency diversification.
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Dieter
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Re: PP without gold

Post by Dieter »

How are you defining "stocks"? But and interesting question - I wonder if any has thoughts on REIT / TIPS / SCV / other options that some think do better in imflation than LCB / standard bonds...
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