The GOLD scream room

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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ochotona
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ochotona » Tue Aug 13, 2019 4:55 pm

She is more smokin hot than a plate of Poutine
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Smith1776
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Smith1776 » Thu Aug 15, 2019 12:36 am

The damndest thing is that she's married... pretty sure anyway.

Really though, I personally think that some of the Kitco content is actually pretty good. They secure some decent interviews and such with various people in the industry.

I'd watch their videos even if Daniela weren't there... though with maybe just slightly less enthusiasm. ::)
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Kbg
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Kbg » Thu Aug 15, 2019 10:32 am

So we are seeing an alternate universe for gold’s behavior right now. Random theories to explain:

The latest move IS simply a random event.
The latest is a return to mean event after several sucky years.
The latest is fundamentally driven...if the US is going to ZIRP now, better to hold something that returns nothing than something that nicks you -.5% every year.

Fact: US inflation is historically low right now (annualized 1.8%)

Other theories from the crowd?
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pmward » Thu Aug 15, 2019 11:17 am

Kbg wrote:
Thu Aug 15, 2019 10:32 am
So we are seeing an alternate universe for gold’s behavior right now. Random theories to explain:

The latest move IS simply a random event.
The latest is a return to mean event after several sucky years.
The latest is fundamentally driven...if the US is going to ZIRP now, better to hold something that returns nothing than something that nicks you -.5% every year.

Fact: US inflation is historically low right now (annualized 1.8%)

Other theories from the crowd?
I personally think that trying to strain to find a fundamental reason for what right now is still a short term move is silly. Short term, people buy things because they are going up and sell things because they are going down. There's simply nothing more to it than that. If the trend sticks for a couple years we will be able to look back and speculate on a reason, but even then, nobody really knows the reason behind these things. This is why I like technicals more than fundamentals. Gold started to go up because of fear, that led to a short squeeze, and now it's still got fear behind it, but the short squeeze caught the interest of the longs which brought momentum and FOMO into the party. This is how pretty much all new bull markets start, they bottom, start to go up, catch a short squeeze, then finally the momentum and FOMO crowds start to join in. Fundamentally speaking, gold was undervalued. Technically speaking, gold had formed one of the most beautiful long term bases I've ever seen, and it slowly over years finally built up enough steam to blow the lid off the pot.
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ochotona
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ochotona » Thu Aug 15, 2019 11:29 am

pmward wrote:
Thu Aug 15, 2019 11:17 am
Technically speaking, gold had formed one of the most beautiful long term bases I've ever seen, and it slowly over years finally built up enough steam to blow the lid off the pot.
Same exact thing will happen to oil. Gold took six years, which means we have to look past 2020 for oil to do the same.

People are figuring out that Permian is a money-losing scam, and although electric cars are fine for what they are and do, Tesla is going to the wood-chipper too, and lots of things still need oil, and we've way underinvested in finding the oil we need in the 2020s and 2030s. Beyond 2030, yeah, maybe we use less oil per capita. But we will have 10 billion capitas?

I am looking at my ex-employer Schlumberger. They pay 6% dividend. Not time to buy, but someday. Trading 1/3 of price from mid 2014.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Ad Orientem » Thu Aug 15, 2019 11:50 am

Kbg wrote:
Thu Aug 15, 2019 10:32 am
So we are seeing an alternate universe for gold’s behavior right now. Random theories to explain:

The latest move IS simply a random event.
The latest is a return to mean event after several sucky years.
The latest is fundamentally driven...if the US is going to ZIRP now, better to hold something that returns nothing than something that nicks you -.5% every year.

Fact: US inflation is historically low right now (annualized 1.8%)

Other theories from the crowd?
The inflation is in the financial markets. Especially bonds. How long will it last? Dunno. But I'm riding the train same as everybody else.
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ochotona
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ochotona » Sat Aug 17, 2019 10:35 am

Took some TLT profits on Friday, holding in cash (2% dividend) to see if we get a dip in gold, will buy ETF in IRAs to supplement physical. Would like $1380 level over the next few months.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by sophie » Sat Aug 17, 2019 1:52 pm

Did you hit a rebalance band then?

I'm not even close. Darn the PP for being so stable!
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Ad Orientem » Tue Aug 20, 2019 1:45 pm

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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Tue Aug 20, 2019 8:22 pm

Ad Orientem wrote:
Tue Aug 20, 2019 1:45 pm
LOL...

https://youtu.be/rLDwWKsWu50
I’ve seen that on cnbc and it creeps me out. Where are they running to? Are they werewolves? They scare me.
Why does the profile icon in control panel look like a guy holding a rifle or a nunchuku?
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ochotona
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ochotona » Wed Aug 21, 2019 5:48 am

I would not even look at GBTC above $5 per share
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ochotona
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ochotona » Wed Aug 21, 2019 7:26 am

The BTC two peaks look like gold 1980 and 2011 !!! ;D
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