The GOLD scream room

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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pmward
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pmward » Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:21 am

Ugly_Bird wrote:
Thu Jun 06, 2019 9:30 am
pmward wrote:
Thu Jun 06, 2019 9:16 am
DXY and gold rallying hard today. Interesting...
Too bad Budd selfdestructed out of here. Would be interesting to see his reaction :)
Budd was the epitome of capitulation. He was selling out of "bad" long bonds and gold just before they started to pick up steam. We have yet to see how this turns out, but if stocks continue to sell and bonds and gold continue to go up then it would definitely be a good case study in what happens when you start selling the losers low to buy the winners high.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu Jun 06, 2019 12:34 pm

pmward wrote:
Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:21 am
Ugly_Bird wrote:
Thu Jun 06, 2019 9:30 am
pmward wrote:
Thu Jun 06, 2019 9:16 am
DXY and gold rallying hard today. Interesting...
Too bad Budd selfdestructed out of here. Would be interesting to see his reaction :)
Budd was the epitome of capitulation.
...
He complained a lot, but Budd actually held on for something like ten years. We had a user, catacombs, who bought gold and sold it at a loss. I don't think he'd even held it for a year. One year at most.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by gizmo_rat » Thu Jun 06, 2019 1:21 pm

dualstow wrote:
Thu Jun 06, 2019 12:34 pm
We had a user, catacombs, who bought gold and sold it at a loss. I don't think he'd even held it for a year. One year at most.
Well remembered dualstow, there were indeed some intense moments (and members ) on this forum. The level of drama for such a conservative portfolio was quite eye opening.
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dualstow
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu Jun 06, 2019 2:46 pm

gizmo_rat wrote:
Thu Jun 06, 2019 1:21 pm
dualstow wrote:
Thu Jun 06, 2019 12:34 pm
We had a user, catacombs, who bought gold and sold it at a loss. I don't think he'd even held it for a year. One year at most.
Well remembered dualstow, there were indeed some intense moments (and members ) on this forum. The level of drama for such a conservative portfolio was quite eye opening.
Lots of drama. O0 Actually, catacombs was one I felt bad for. He wasn't brusque in any way. He just said, in so many words, I can't take this, guys. (Falling gold prices). People tried to tell him to keep his eye on the whole package, but he bailed, and gold went back up. In the long run, though I guess it isn't much higher than when he bailed. U.S. Treasuries have certainly done well, but as an Israeli he probably had a subsitution.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Kbg » Thu Jun 06, 2019 10:58 pm

dualstow wrote:
Thu Jun 06, 2019 2:46 pm
gizmo_rat wrote:
Thu Jun 06, 2019 1:21 pm
dualstow wrote:
Thu Jun 06, 2019 12:34 pm
We had a user, catacombs, who bought gold and sold it at a loss. I don't think he'd even held it for a year. One year at most.
Well remembered dualstow, there were indeed some intense moments (and members ) on this forum. The level of drama for such a conservative portfolio was quite eye opening.
Lots of drama. O0 Actually, catacombs was one I felt bad for. He wasn't brusque in any way. He just said, in so many words, I can't take this, guys. (Falling gold prices). People tried to tell him to keep his eye on the whole package, but he bailed, and gold went back up. In the long run, though I guess it isn't much higher than when he bailed. U.S. Treasuries have certainly done well, but as an Israeli he probably had a subsitution.
Just me perhaps, I get bailing on a portfolio if you stick with it for a while and it just doesn't perform like you thought it would. What I don't get is the fixation on performance at the asset level. I'm sure I check performance too much, but I rarely pay any attention to the puzzle pieces.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by gizmo_rat » Fri Jun 07, 2019 4:49 am

Kbg wrote:
Thu Jun 06, 2019 10:58 pm
Just me perhaps, I get bailing on a portfolio if you stick with it for a while and it just doesn't perform like you thought it would. What I don't get is the fixation on performance at the asset level. I'm sure I check performance too much, but I rarely pay any attention to the puzzle pieces.
I think that gold is the physiological Achilles heel of the PP. Looking back at catacombs posts I do remember not feeling that clever in my asset choice at that time.

It's quite hard to view gold as a neutral puzzle piece when it carries so much emotional baggage and opinion that everyone and his dog wants to tell you about. So you end up with this nasty miss-match between your expectations at the portfolio level and the performance of that "crazy asset that all the sane commentators hate and only the loons love and why did I talk myself in to this" .

Easy to get yourself into a spiral of self doubt, recrimination and blame as we've seen played out many times. I tend to think if you've got sufficient rationally to ignore the noise from gold then it's not that much of a leap to tune out the volatility from a stock heavy portfolio.

I think it was Moda who said a few years ago, "if there was a 4% ibond" ... :)
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu Jun 13, 2019 3:24 pm

Gold is like US$1345/oz now. Thanks, oil tankers?
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pmward » Fri Jun 14, 2019 7:45 am

Gold is officially breaking out this morning. Currently $1359. I'm not going to get too excited until we break above $1375 and/or get a successful pullback retest and bounce back up off of $1350 (preferably both). But it definitely does have some serious strength right now. I think it's prospects of holding this breakout are all entirely up to the Fed next week. They are either going to strengthen the rally or cause it to prairie dog back down.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Fri Jun 14, 2019 3:41 pm

I assume you’re not too excited... ;)
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Fri Jun 14, 2019 5:00 pm

pmward wrote:
Fri Jun 14, 2019 7:45 am
Gold



... or cause it to prairie dog back down.
Obligatory prairie dog
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jHjFxJVeCQs
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pmward » Fri Jun 14, 2019 6:52 pm

Haha. Well it is not surprising that the sellers came out today. Shorting gold at $1350 has been the easiest money in the world for damn near a decade now. But we still closed the day even, so they sellers couldn't actually drop the price. If the buyers keep pounding on the ceiling and don't give up, they will break through. The sellers showed a bit of weakness today, they couldn't get the job done and bring it down. I really think a lot rides on the Fed next week, not just in gold but in all markets. With the market expecting a 50bp drop in the next month, I mean just Powell saying the wrong adjunctive once could cause massive commotion. I wouldn't be surprised if it was a volatile week all around. Buckle up those seatbelts!
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Sat Jun 15, 2019 11:44 am

Or just don’t look for 12 months.

(Says the guy who regularly posts prices, I admit. O0 )
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