The GOLD scream room

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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Kbg
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Kbg » Sat May 11, 2019 12:05 pm

A lot of blocking forever going on lately on this board. I felt pretty cool earlier this week when I got blocked by someone for the first time ever. I don't think I'm the trolly type, but I will layout what I hope is a factual well reasoned counterpoint if I think someone is just wrong on something. It seems gold has an almost religious aspect to it. Kinda weird I think. I'm not anti or pro gold, for me it's a financial asset with known characteristics. Historically, we know the following:

1. It used to be money. It no longer is money. Who know's if it will ever be money again.
2. It has no productive value in the economic sense of "productive" other than for ornamental jewelry and specialized coatings.
3. It has weak correlation to most other financial assets and has demonstrated an ability to be a good diversifier at somewhere in the 10-25% range.
4. Most serious studies have shown that it is a hard asset to nail down what it drives or is driven by or reacts to consistently and most of what we think it does actually does not.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pmward » Sat May 11, 2019 12:26 pm

Kbg wrote:
Sat May 11, 2019 12:05 pm
A lot of blocking forever going on lately on this board. I felt pretty cool earlier this week when I got blocked by someone for the first time ever. I don't think I'm the trolly type, but I will layout what I hope is a factual well reasoned counterpoint if I think someone is just wrong on something. It seems gold has an almost religious aspect to it. Kinda weird I think. I'm not anti or pro gold, for me it's a financial asset with known characteristics. Historically, we know the following:

1. It used to be money. It no longer is money. Who know's if it will ever be money again.
2. It has no productive value in the economic sense of "productive" other than for ornamental jewelry and specialized coatings.
3. It has weak correlation to most other financial assets and has demonstrated an ability to be a good diversifier at somewhere in the 10-25% range.
4. Most serious studies have shown that it is a hard asset to nail down what it drives or is driven by or reacts to consistently and most of what we think it does actually does not.
I don't think I've ever seen you do anything I would consider trolling. When you present an opinion it's always well thought out, objective, and you provide actual data or sources where applicable. That's good discussion in my opinion. This is what I wish the anti-PP'ers around here would do, bring some actual data, facts, and logical well thought out arguments to the table. Then we can have a constructive discussion. Just simply saying "x is bad, y is good" by projecting the current market environment infinitely into the future doesn't provide any real substance and serves to do nothing but annoy.

Aside from that I generally agree with all you say here about gold. I think it's greatest fundamental strength is that it is uncorrelated to pretty much everything and anything; it just marches to the beat of its own drum most of the time. It also tends to go up in those SHTF type moments. There is always money looking for a home in any market environment, which is why there always will be at least one asset class going up. When stocks and/or bonds are doing bad money always tends to find its way into gold. That is where gold pays its rent in a portfolio.
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ochotona
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ochotona » Sat May 11, 2019 1:52 pm

Kbg wrote:
Sat May 11, 2019 12:05 pm
A lot of blocking forever going on lately on this board. I felt pretty cool earlier this week when I got blocked by someone for the first time ever. I don't think I'm the trolly type, but I will layout what I hope is a factual well reasoned counterpoint if I think someone is just wrong on something. It seems gold has an almost religious aspect to it. Kinda weird I think. I'm not anti or pro gold, for me it's a financial asset with known characteristics. Historically, we know the following:

1. It used to be money. It no longer is money. Who know's if it will ever be money again.
2. It has no productive value in the economic sense of "productive" other than for ornamental jewelry and specialized coatings.
3. It has weak correlation to most other financial assets and has demonstrated an ability to be a good diversifier at somewhere in the 10-25% range.
4. Most serious studies have shown that it is a hard asset to nail down what it drives or is driven by or reacts to consistently and most of what we think it does actually does not.
Points 1. and 2.inform my decision to pursue a 10% allocation, not 25%. Because if there is a risk the money put into gold becomes dead money, I don't want to deaden 25% of my port. But if gold is going to $10,000 per ounce then 10% is probably enough.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Sat May 11, 2019 2:50 pm

pmward wrote:
Sat May 11, 2019 12:26 pm
Kbg wrote:
Sat May 11, 2019 12:05 pm
A lot of blocking forever going on lately on this board. I felt pretty cool earlier this week when I got blocked by someone for the first time ever. I don't think I'm the trolly type,
...


I don't think I've ever seen you do anything I would consider trolling.
But you’ve only been on the forum for five minutes. O0
I’m kidding. Kbg has always been nice.
Dow down 600+ points. Gold- well, see AdamSmith’s post in the gold scream rm
one of the cnbc guys I dislike just said you can track silver to the President’s tweets
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Ugly_Bird
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Ugly_Bird » Sat May 11, 2019 7:14 pm

pmward wrote:
Fri May 10, 2019 7:44 pm
Only forum trolls behave that way.
Well, do not feed the trolls :-)
pmward wrote:
Fri May 10, 2019 7:44 pm
We got rid of one troll, and the discussions lately on this forum have been super constructive since then... until troll #2 jumped in today right where the first one left off, haha.
This is a particular example of the fundamental conservation law.
Trolls can neither be created nor destroyed; rather, they can only be transformed or transferred from one form to another.
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Kbg
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Kbg » Sat May 11, 2019 9:23 pm

Ugly_Bird wrote:
Sat May 11, 2019 7:14 pm
This is a particular example of the fundamental conservation law.
Trolls can neither be created nor destroyed; rather, they can only be transformed or transferred from one form to another.
Now THIS was funny.
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Cortopassi
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Mon May 13, 2019 8:33 am

Today gold is working as hoped.
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mathjak107
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Mon May 13, 2019 9:03 am

well i certainly "hoped " it would have done far better then it is doing but the dollar is still in the drivers seat
pmward
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pmward » Mon May 13, 2019 9:14 am

Guys, it's one day of a one week pull back. Your expectations are ridiculous. Gold is not going to go up every day or week that stocks are down. They are UNcorrelated not negatively correlated. I think the root of the frustrations with gold on this board are that people have unrealistic expectations of it.
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Ad Orientem
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Ad Orientem » Mon May 13, 2019 9:37 am

pmward wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 9:14 am
Guys, it's one day of a one week pull back. Your expectations are ridiculous. Gold is not going to go up every day or week that stocks are down. They are UNcorrelated not negatively correlated. I think the root of the frustrations with gold on this board are that people have unrealistic expectations of it.

^^^+1^^^
Don
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Don » Fri May 17, 2019 2:15 pm

Ad Orientem wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 9:37 am
pmward wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 9:14 am
Guys, it's one day of a one week pull back. Your expectations are ridiculous. Gold is not going to go up every day or week that stocks are down. They are UNcorrelated not negatively correlated. I think the root of the frustrations with gold on this board are that people have unrealistic expectations of it.

^^^+1^^^
Pass the Kool-Aid please.
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Cortopassi
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Fri May 17, 2019 3:30 pm

Don wrote:
Fri May 17, 2019 2:15 pm
Ad Orientem wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 9:37 am
pmward wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 9:14 am
Guys, it's one day of a one week pull back. Your expectations are ridiculous. Gold is not going to go up every day or week that stocks are down. They are UNcorrelated not negatively correlated. I think the root of the frustrations with gold on this board are that people have unrealistic expectations of it.

^^^+1^^^
Pass the Kool-Aid please.
It's all kool-aid.

You believe the market will go up forever
or are always waiting for it to drop
or that the debt will destroy the dollar
or you believe technical indicators
or fundamentals
or are a gold bug
or only do CDs and money markets
or stash cash under your mattress.
.....

Gotta believe in something. We believe a little in everything.
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