Gyroscopic Investing

Note to self: cancel thread draft, title: Long term bonds in the Hizz-ouse!

The Japanese 30 year is at 1.22%... 

melveyr wrote: The Japanese 30 year is at 1.22%... 

Wonder if this is our next stop on the QE train.

sure is an outsized move...what does this indicate? Not sure its something to celebrate.

murphy_p_t wrote: sure is an outsized move...what does this indicate? Not sure its something to celebrate.

The terrible jobs report was released today. Seems stock investors are fleeing into treasuries and gold.

Too bad 26.8% of readers are "already out" of bonds

Daily flunctuations is emotional noise.

dragoncar wrote: Too bad 26.8% of readers are "already out" of bonds

Yeah that poll was kind of funny given the HBPP prescription. I can't imagine owning stocks without holding some long duration Treasuries! Owning stocks, gold, and cash sounds like a pretty terrifying portfolio to me.

murphy_p_t wrote: sure is an outsized move...what does this indicate? Not sure its something to celebrate.

I agree. It's not a sign of prosperity the way an extended rise in stocks may be. But, I'm definitely grateful for discovering the pp. Without it, I would not have long-term bonds. Even when I was a boglehead I didn't have this kind of protection against stock losses. So that's worth "celebrating" a bit.

dragoncar wrote: Too bad 26.8% of readers are "already out" of bonds

No offense to the pollster, but that was a horrible poll. The choices were incomplete and then we weren't allowed to change our answers.
I voted already out, but I am 25% in bonds (Closer to 26% after today's rally). I just don't plan to buy more until I rebalance.

It's certainly more of a micro celebration than a macro celebration. I'm happy that I personally have enough bonds to weather the stock market panicking when the truth about the economy is revealed. Sucks that the economy is in the toilet, of course.

Long-term treasuries were an awful investment according to all the pundits, including Warren Buffet. I'm sure the short positions in this asset drove the out-sized returns we witnessed today. Further evidence that we can't predict the future performance of an asset and the overall portfolio. Also, listening to so called experts is hazardous to your wealth.

dualstow wrote: No offense to the pollster, but that was a horrible poll. The choices were incomplete and then we weren't allowed to change our answers.
I voted already out, but I am 25% in bonds (Closer to 26% after today's rally). I just don't plan to buy more until I rebalance.

Thanks for that.  Maybe if you had the idea, made a better poll, and posted before I did.  Then you wouldn't have to burden yourself with the making of that unproductive comment.

I am pretty sure I had an option to cover every yield % and sorry the forum doesn't allow you to change an answer.

Like I said, no offense meant. You had plenty of yield #'s covered, but no basic option like "I'm sticking to the permanent portfolio" which would cover both buying and selling. Eventually, "I will buy no matter what" was added as a choice, followed by this:

But I am not sure if I will let folks changes votes.

So, I was under the impression that it was your choice and not the forum software.

dualstow wrote: Like I said, no offense meant. You had plenty of yield #'s covered, but no basic option like "I'm sticking to the permanent portfolio" which would cover both buying and selling. Eventually, "I will buy no matter what" was added as a choice, followed by this:

But I am not sure if I will let folks changes votes.

So, I was under the impression that it was your choice and not the forum software.

ah, the "I" was meant to be an "it"

but my iphone autofails on words

Bean wrote:

dualstow wrote: Like I said, no offense meant. You had plenty of yield #'s covered, but no basic option like "I'm sticking to the permanent portfolio" which would cover both buying and selling. Eventually, "I will buy no matter what" was added as a choice, followed by this:

But I am not sure if I will let folks changes votes.

So, I was under the impression that it was your choice and not the forum software.

ah, the "I" was meant to be an "it"

but my iphone autofails on words

http://www.damnyouautocorrect.com/

lol.
For what it's worth, I didn't mean to write "horrible". I mean to write "mildly flawed but otherwise well-constructed." Damn that autotext! 
Seriously, I could have picked a better word; I do apologize for that, Bean.

buddtholomew wrote: Long-term treasuries were an awful investment according to all the pundits, including Warren Buffet. I'm sure the short positions in this asset drove the out-sized returns we witnessed today. Further evidence that we can't predict the future performance of an asset and the overall portfolio. Also, listening to so called experts is hazardous to your wealth.

Budd, you've come a long way!

Reub wrote:

buddtholomew wrote: Long-term treasuries were an awful investment according to all the pundits, including Warren Buffet. I'm sure the short positions in this asset drove the out-sized returns we witnessed today. Further evidence that we can't predict the future performance of an asset and the overall portfolio. Also, listening to so called experts is hazardous to your wealth.

Budd, you've come a long way!

Thanks for noticing Reub. Its been a learning experience and I have had support throughout the journey. Thank you all.

buddtholomew wrote:

Reub wrote:

buddtholomew wrote: Long-term treasuries were an awful investment according to all the pundits, including Warren Buffet. I'm sure the short positions in this asset drove the out-sized returns we witnessed today. Further evidence that we can't predict the future performance of an asset and the overall portfolio. Also, listening to so called experts is hazardous to your wealth.

Budd, you've come a long way!

Thanks for noticing Reub. Its been a learning experience and I have had support throughout the journey. Thank you all.

You're "I'm Done!" thread has the most views of any thread on the whole forum.

I think that your journey has been valuable to many others as well.

Why am I never glad I own gold?  I can't remember the last time it was the sole gaining asset.

MediumTex wrote:

buddtholomew wrote:

Reub wrote: Budd, you've come a long way!

Thanks for noticing Reub. Its been a learning experience and I have had support throughout the journey. Thank you all.

You're "I'm Done!" thread has the most views of any thread on the whole forum.

I think that your journey has been valuable to many others as well.

Today's decline would have prompted an "I'm Done!" sequel, but I am eerily comfortable letting the PP continue to navigate through these market conditions.

buddtholomew wrote: Today's decline would have prompted an "I'm Done!" sequel, but I am eerily comfortable letting the PP continue to navigate through these market conditions.

I agree with you and feel similarly. It seems like every day, a different asset is rocketing up and another one is tanking. How could anyone less diversified possibly stomach these choppy conditions?

buddtholomew wrote: Today's decline would have prompted an "I'm Done!" sequel, but I am eerily comfortable letting the PP continue to navigate through these market conditions.

Do you find that you even enjoy the volatility a bit?

I do.  I like participating in a (small) part of the gold market excitement without feeling like it's going to cause me to go broke.

The 17% drop in gold hasn't even fazed me and not because I have other assets gaining against it (I don't as I'm not fully invested), but thinking about it, it is because it is real.  The other three assets are completely fictitionous and could evaporate in a puff of smoke and indeed they have a rather alarming number of times in the past.  That is true fear.