Gyroscopic Investing

I have totally revamped the long run charts section of my website. I just coded it up this afternoon so if it ever errors out in the future let me know and I will try to squash it.
http://www.stableinvesting.com/p/long-t ... mance.html

It is better now because it has monthly data since inception and it will automatically update each month (the stats at the bottom will too!). I am a big fan of graphs, and I hope some of you find the new stuff useful.

Many thanks melveyr,
This is a graceful, direct, simple and elucidating presentation and relaxing to my brain to see the permanent portfolio presented in this way.

melveyr wrote: It is better now because it has monthly data since inception and it will automatically update each month (the stats at the bottom will too!). I am a big fan of graphs, and I hope some of you find the new stuff useful.

The stocks and gold volatilities look a bit low.  Is that being calculated on the real returns as opposed to nominal?

So how many rebalancing events were there on this data back to the 1920's?  Do they all have the same data starting date?

Very interesting. Looks like a lot of rebalancing into cash (and gold for that matter) over the last 30 years. Competing portfolio advocates claim the increased adoption of the PP to be a case of recency bias as gold has risen quickly since the mid-2000's. But I guess that depends on your definition of "recent" considering the portfolio still performed well while being held down by gold for 2 decades prior.

MachineGhost wrote:

melveyr wrote: It is better now because it has monthly data since inception and it will automatically update each month (the stats at the bottom will too!). I am a big fan of graphs, and I hope some of you find the new stuff useful.

The stocks and gold volatilities look a bit low.  Is that being calculated on the real returns as opposed to nominal?

So how many rebalancing events were there on this data back to the 1920's?  Do they all have the same data starting date?

Yes the volatility is the monthly standard deviation of real returns, but then annualized out. In the PP chart you easily see the rebalancing points. It is simply when all of the asset class weightings are 25% (the colored lines go vertical).

No Script was blocking the charts.

They definitely show the PP is overweight to gold's risk.  But that the PP still works after a 20-year bear market in gold says more about gold's ultimate usefulness than anything else.

I'm starting to think HB was just lucky with his simplification to 25x4 in 1987...  the PP could have been a disaster and then faded off the map.

MachineGhost wrote: No Script was blocking the charts.

They definitely show the PP is overweight to gold's risk.  But that the PP still works after a 20-year bear market in gold says more about gold's ultimate usefulness than anything else.

I'm starting to think HB was just lucky with his simplification to 25x4 in 1987...  the PP could have been a disaster and then faded off the map.

Yes gold's, real drawdown was quite brutal. It would have taken an incredible amount of discipline to keep buying gold as your friends were running around in power suspenders making a killing in stocks and bonds.

Melveyr,

That's a beautiful website.  Clean and simple.  Thanks for the good info.  I'll be checking back.

The site looks great.

Lots of good info there.

You are the man!