Gyroscopic Investing

Wouldn't the depressed nature of Greece's economy suggest that it was capable of a huge rebound, assuming it could get off the Euro and devalue its currency?

Of course, they still have all the corruption in the private and public sectors to deal with.  Letting the EU push their head under water like this amazes me.  Iceland was in much worse straights after 2008 but is, to my knowledge, in a much better place today as compared to Greece due to their ability to manipulate their currency.

There was this guy who once spoke and wrote volumes about how useless it was trying to predict the economic actions and reactions of millions (or billions) of individuals... can't quite recall his name, it's on the tip of my tongue though. 

RuralEngineer wrote: Wouldn't the depressed nature of Greece's economy suggest that it was capable of a huge rebound, assuming it could get off the Euro and devalue its currency?

Of course, they still have all the corruption in the private and public sectors to deal with.  Letting the EU push their head under water like this amazes me.  Iceland was in much worse straights after 2008 but is, to my knowledge, in a much better place today as compared to Greece due to their ability to manipulate their currency.

I think you're largely right that Greece has deeper, more systemic problems than Iceland did. Their government is bloated, ineffective, and corrupt, and their private sector is inefficient and poorly diversified. Wikipedia says that the largest sector is tourism (23%) followed by government services (17%) and FIRE (16%). They need to develop some real domestic industries that don't depend on foreign travelers, financial manipulations, or government largesse, all of which are highly cyclical and vulnerable to exogenous factors.