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"Experts"

Posted: Thu Nov 15, 2012 3:52 pm
by rnmike10
Set up a new PP 9/11/12 and held my nose as I bought my 30 year T-Bonds.  ALL the experts HATE(D) long treasuries. Guess what,  it is the only 1 of the 4 asset classes that is up (t-bills (cash) are of course, flat) iau and vti down. Portfolio (total) down %1.05 since set-up.

Re: "Experts"

Posted: Thu Nov 15, 2012 4:14 pm
by MediumTex
rnmike10 wrote: Set up a new PP 9/11/12 and held my nose as I bought my 30 year T-Bonds.  ALL the experts HATE(D) long treasuries. Guess what,  it is the only 1 of the 4 asset classes that is up (t-bills (cash) are of course, flat) iau and vti down. Portfolio (total) down %1.05 since set-up.
I would say that your experience is more the norm than the exception.

Everyone always seems to be surprised with what actually happens to their PP after they set it up (especially with the PP assets that they hate).

Re: "Experts"

Posted: Thu Nov 15, 2012 4:41 pm
by craigr
I've made more money ignoring market gurus than I ever have by listening to them.

Re: "Experts"

Posted: Thu Nov 15, 2012 5:21 pm
by Xan
An "ex-spurt" is just a has-been drip under pressure!

Re: "Experts"

Posted: Thu Nov 15, 2012 5:54 pm
by Gary
There are good experts to listen to, and bad ones.

Among the more interesting ones are Lacy Hunt of Hoisington and David Rosenburg.  They recognize the realities of deflation.  Though Rosenburg tends to go back and forth a bit too much for my taste.

Re: "Experts"

Posted: Thu Nov 15, 2012 6:06 pm
by MediumTex
Gary wrote: There are good experts to listen to, and bad ones.

Among the more interesting ones are Lacy Hunt of Hoisington and David Rosenburg.  They recognize the realities of deflation.  Though Rosenburg tends to go back and forth a bit too much for my taste.
Financial experts are sort of like football experts.  You can learn a lot about the sport by listening to them, but when it comes to predicting the actual outcome of a game they are no better than anyone else.

Re: "Experts"

Posted: Fri Nov 16, 2012 1:42 am
by Gary
MediumTex wrote:
Financial experts are sort of like football experts.  You can learn a lot about the sport by listening to them, but when it comes to predicting the actual outcome of a game they are no better than anyone else.
The best use of financial experts is for help in understanding the underlying phenomena.  Harry Browne was one of the better ones. 

Re: "Experts"

Posted: Fri Nov 16, 2012 2:19 am
by melveyr
Treasury bonds are probably the most fun to watch rally. There is a lot of misinformation out there about the bond markets.