Blog Post on the PP (lots of charts)

[Ad Orientem]

http://cssanalytics.wordpress.com/2012/ ... rformance/

[MediumTex]

Whoa! 

I feel like one of those Japanese kids who have seizures from watching the cartoons with the flashing images.

That's a lot of data reflected in some very cool graphics.

[melveyr]

Maybe I am just too nerdy about finance, but I find lots of the PP related graphs to be very beautiful, especially the ones that show all of the asset classes on them interacting with each other. I think that is part of the reason I check on the PP so often because I like seeing the squiggly lines "dancing" with each other...

The other explanation is that I am slightly crazy  ;)

EDIT: Here is one of the favorites that I have made (inflation adjusted returns btw)...

[MediumTex]

Maybe I am just too nerdy about finance, but I find lots of the PP related graphs to be very beautiful, especially the ones that show all of the asset classes on them interacting with each other. I think that is part of the reason I check on the PP so often because I like seeing the squiggly lines "dancing" with each other...

The other explanation is that I am slightly crazy  ;)

EDIT: Here is one of the favorites that I have made (inflation adjusted returns btw)...

That is beautiful.

Not so much because of the greed that we all have for gains, but just the symmetry and order.  It's like investment physics.

[melveyr]

Not so much because of the greed that we all have for gains, but just the symmetry and order.  It's like investment physics.

Craig really chose a nice name for the forum.

[hpowders]

A sight for sore eyes.

[Bean]

Makes me want to increase my stock holding, since in theory it should cross that black line in the future.

[hpowders]

Then, "in theory" you will be market timing and not following the PP passive discipline.

[Bean]

Then, "in theory" you will be market timing and not following the PP passive discipline.

That is what the VP is perfectly suited for, my speculation.

[Tortoise]

Bean, I think the current (i.e., right-most) positions of the component assets relative to the overall PP in that graph depend heavily on the starting date and exactly when the rebalance events occurred.

But you do raise an interesting point. Similar to how some people track the Dow/gold ratio to determine when stocks might be over/under-priced relative to gold, has anyone ever looked at the historical price ratios between the PP's component assets?

Tracking the historical stock/gold ratio, LTT/gold ratio, and stock/LTT ratio and comparing the three of them to each other might provide the basis for some interesting VP strategies. But I'm sure someone else on this forum must have suggested this before.

[hpowders]

Then, "in theory" you will be market timing and not following the PP passive discipline.

That is what the VP is perfectly suited for, my speculation.

Good luck with it. I was never successful at it.

[MachineGhost]

http://cssanalytics.wordpress.com/2012/ ... rformance/

Nice how he screwd up "Growth Rising + Inflation Rising".  Naive investors still belabor under the illusion that gold is useful when inflation is rising.

As more and more people continue to discover and report on the PP, my anxiety rises proportionally.

I don't agree that the weightings reflect the probability of the regime occuring, but it would be interesting to find out if performance is better when constructed as such.