Gyroscopic Investing

Recently rolled over a 401(K) balance of ~$150K in an IRA. Now need to figure out where to invest. Discovered Permanent Portfolio while researching and after few days of reading and research, it makes a whole lot of sense! My goal is to divide my dough in four parts and over next 6 to 8 months invest it whatever strategy I finalize.

Now questions I am struggling with are...

• Should I simply invest in PRPFX or look at some other allocations such as TLT+GLD+SPY+Some-Short-Term-Treasury
• I also refinanced my mortgage at 3.5% for 30 years and I know that bond yields are at their lowest point. Isn't investing in bonds a guaranteed loss in long term? If inflation rises, bond yields will go through the roof.

I know, I know..... many of you will say that Permanent Portfolio strongly advises against timing the market and if I was to invest in PRPFX I wouldn't probably be able to do much about it but I was to look at controlling PP allocation myself, I am hesitant in investing in TLT. I also have invested $15K in TBT essentially betting that bond yields will rise significantly over next few years. So I am a bit torn between trying to follow "Do not try to time the market" and "I am certain that long term interest rates have no where to go but up!". Please advise.

Thank you for your guidance.

The debate over PRPFX vs the Harry Browne 4x25% PP is as old as this forum. My answer FWIW is that both work. But PRPFX has some drawbacks...

1. Expenses are about .7%. That's low average for an actively managed mutual fund but its very high for an indexed portfolio. You can do the HBPP for about 1/3 that. Why give away money you don't need to? Expenses also detract from long term returns.
2. PRPFX is weighted towards inflation. It under-weights US Gov't bonds so you could underperform in a deflationary situation. This can be remedied by adding 10% in EDV.
3. It's actively managed so you aren't necessarily going to get the same results as the broader market for whichever asset class your looking at. I.E. stocks might not mirror the S&P 500 etc.

That said, PRPFX has some attractive advantages over the HBPP.

1. It's probably the best fund out there if you are looking for 1 stop shopping. The volatility level will be a bit higher but over the long term you are likely to get comparable returns with the HBPP. So if you just really want a one fund portfolio that you can add money to and leave it alone forever, PRPFX is best in breed.
2. It's weighted towards inflation. The last 100 years (post World War I) have been among the most inflationary in history. The world has abandoned sound money and that strongly suggests to me that inflation is going to be more of a threat than deflation in general. Yes, I'm prognosticating here. But I think it's a reasonable assumption based on history and the current state of the world. But I stress that I am talking about long term trends. I make no predictions regarding near or even intermediate term events. But yea, long term my gut says to brace for inflation. PRPFX will likely outperform the HBPP in an inflationary environment.
3. If you doubt your ability to resist playing with the asset allocations if you see all the wheels turning then PRPFX is a better choice. You really just don't know how it all works because its actively managed and it's not an ETF.

Beyond that I would call it a gut check. A lot of people here started with PRPFX before migrating to the HBPP as their comfort level improved.

P.S. Welcome to the forum!