Gyroscopic Investing

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I'm not sure I buy his claim of currently being unable to feed the world...isn't there an obesity epidemic??



 

Paul Farrell is one of the most shrill purveyors of doomer porn out there.

His analysis is consistently half-baked and gratuitously gloomy.

Malthusians and TEOTWAWKI-ers always have scary things to say, but they never seem to come true. I'm a firm believer in preparedness, but you can prepare without the paranoia, despair, and hysteria encouraged by these sorts of articles.

MediumTex wrote: Paul Farrell is one of the most shrill purveyors of doomer porn out there.

It's interesting to compare the joyless, "hellfire and brimstone" voice of this Farrell article to absolutely anything written or spoken by Harry Browne.

He doesn't even appear to offer any advice.  Will my leather chaps portfolio protect me in this apocalyptic, war-torn future where we all drink our own pee a la Bear Grylls and gold has no value because "you can't eat it"?

This style of his isn't exactly new.  Farrell warned that a crash was right around the corner in 2010.  See: "Warning: Crash dead ahead. Sell. Get liquid. Now." (May, 2010.)  His prediction came with no actionable advice of any kind while the PP let you coast right on through.  Also, the stock market had a nice upward run the rest of the year.  (Oops.)

Farrell again warned that we'd all be doomed by Christmastime 2011.  Didn't happen.

Browne, on the other hand, gave us real solutions on how to deal with an uncertain world and did so with good humor, specific advice, and humility.  Farrell's just lobbing treats at the fearful, hissing reptilian part of my brain.  I've seen this act before.  It no longer impresses me.

Lone Wolf wrote:

MediumTex wrote: Paul Farrell is one of the most shrill purveyors of doomer porn out there.

It's interesting to compare the joyless, "hellfire and brimstone" voice of this Farrell article to absolutely anything written or spoken by Harry Browne.

He doesn't even appear to offer any advice.  Will my leather chaps portfolio protect me in this apocalyptic, war-torn future where we all drink our own pee a la Bear Grylls and gold has no value because "you can't eat it"?

This style of his isn't exactly new.  Farrell warned that a crash was right around the corner in 2010.  See: "Warning: Crash dead ahead. Sell. Get liquid. Now." (May, 2010.)  His prediction came with no actionable advice of any kind while the PP let you coast right on through.  Also, the stock market had a nice upward run the rest of the year.  (Oops.)

Farrell again warned that we'd all be doomed by Christmastime 2011.  Didn't happen.

Browne, on the other hand, gave us real solutions on how to deal with an uncertain world and did so with good humor, specific advice, and humility.  Farrell's just lobbing treats at the fearful, hissing reptilian part of my brain.  I've seen this act before.  It no longer impresses me.

I feel like I have earned my stripes as a doomer enthusiast (I read American Survival Guide magazine in junior high for entertainment), and the one thing I have learned is that fear is not a good frame of mind for much of anything, including preparing for the realistic risks we all face in life.

Farrell's message is basically childlike and destructive.  I hate to think of all the fear and despair that his writing creates in people who have only recent come to the subject of doom and gloom and who take it all at face value.  It would be like going to a horror movie without understanding that what you were about to see was only intended to be escapist entertainment.

The biggest problem for me with doom and gloomers is that they work out this vision of how things are going to play out. But if they are wrong they are completely boxed in. What they overlook is that the best way to prepare for the unknown is not to work out some specific scenario, but to have a set of flexible response options you can apply no matter what is going on.

As I've said many times, what I liked about the Permanent Portfolio is I have these basic assets that can be flexible going into the future. It's the start-up side of me I guess where I always want to have a way to deal with unknown problems. But at the same time I don't want to waste my time thinking about worse case scenarios because they never happen the way you expect, or even at all. However I want options that are likely to be useful if a true emergency does in fact happen. I just want that option to be future independent because I don't know what the future will be.

I'll occasionally read doomer with an "Oh, yeah?" attitude, but I admit I'm a sucker for the kind that comes backed with economic data that's actually related to the doom being proposed.  (A lot of the economic data are nonspecific and general, applicable to doom or boom (or toom).

Here's one I found online, from a doomer hedge fund manager:

Former Hedge Funder Presents A Terrifying Vision Of THE END GAME.

http://www.businessinsider.com/raoul-pa ... ame-2012-6#

Too bad there's no audio commentary.

smurff wrote: I'll occasionally read doomer with an "Oh, yeah?" attitude, but I admit I'm a sucker for the kind that comes backed with economic data that's actually related to the doom being proposed.  (A lot of the economic data are nonspecific and general, applicable to doom or boom (or toom).

Here's one I found online, from a doomer hedge fund manager:

Former Hedge Funder Presents A Terrifying Vision Of THE END GAME.

http://www.businessinsider.com/raoul-pa ... ame-2012-6#

Too bad there's no audio commentary.

Interesting piece. By coincidence I just read Byron Wein's (of Blackstone) article that offered a rather grim (though I would not call it apocalyptic) view of the future from the perspective of his "smartest man in Europe."

http://www.blackstone.com/news-views/ma ... firedancer

He seems wiser than the guys Lindsey Williams (a doomer who listens to his "elite friends") hangs out with.