Gyroscopic Investing

Our very own Medium Tex is the guest on my podcast this week. We talked about the permanent portfolio of course and, in particular, his approach to understanding all the different economic conditions we might face and how to be financially prepared for any of them as a private investor.

Here is the episode page http://thevoluntarylife.blogspot.co.uk/ ... -with.html

and here is the audio file http://thevoluntarylife.com/financial_preparedness.mp3

Jake and I had a good discussion on this podcast and we touched on a lot of different topics.

Between this one and craig's new podcast, it's like a PP double feature.

Fantastic podcast!!

Very informative, very clear, good questions and answers.

Would love to have one with Clive.

Have you guys read anything on Kondatiev cycles?

Craig's discussion on  a change in market via technological breakthrough reminded me of my rudimentary understanding of Kondatiev theories.

LonerMatt wrote: Have you guys read anything on Kondatiev cycles?

Craig's discussion on  a change in market via technological breakthrough reminded me of my rudimentary understanding of Kondatiev theories.

When you look at history I think that there is clearly an ebb and flow to human progress, but I don't think that it is anything that could be the basis for a reliable investment strategy.

In other words, I think that there are clearly cycles in history, but I don't think that the cycles are regular and predictable enough to model any reliable vision of the future.

I don't believe in cycles of any type. Even when used to describe modern markets the past 100 years, there is simply not enough data to prove the idea.

I understand the appeal of the idea of cycles that Kondratieff was talking about. A similar idea is the "wealth cycles" that Mike Maloney talks about with regard to gold vs stocks http://youtu.be/tj2s6vzErqY

However I agree that nothing about these "cycles" (length, severity etc) is predictable in advance so the concept is only useful as a way of looking back at history and trying to make sense of what has happened with some conceptual framework. It's not a predictive tool.

Jake wrote:
I understand the appeal of the idea of cycles that Kondratieff was talking about. A similar idea is the "wealth cycles" that Mike Maloney talks about with regard to gold vs stocks http://youtu.be/tj2s6vzErqY

However I agree that nothing about these "cycles" (length, severity etc) is predictable in advance so the concept is only useful as a way of looking back at history and trying to make sense of what has happened with some conceptual framework. It's not a predictive tool.

Certainly Kondratieff cycles are not a cycle for predicting time or when to move, or anything like that, but certainly a way of considering whether we are in an innovative cycle, or a stagnant one. The 08 crash and relative global stagnation seems to fall well within those waves. I'm not suggesting the implications are anything for choices to be based on, but rather it's just a way of viewing history/the present/considering the future: that certain technologies drive innovation that fosters economic growth, but that ultimately those technologies then stagnate and the economic boom they brought also stagnates.

Simplistic? Sure, but there's a lot more going on in his theories/proponents ideas.

Once again, these are not ideas I'd apply to investing, but rather concieving of things more broadly.

Very nice podcast. I'm trying to focus on the content, but Jake I could listen to you just reading the phone book.
One of these days, I'm going to start a thread in the Other section asking the Brits on this forum to help me I.D. the different accents in 'Tinker, Tailor' and 'Peep Show'.

dualstow wrote: Very nice podcast. I'm trying to focus on the content, but Jake I could listen to you just reading the phone book.
One of these days, I'm going to start a thread in the Other section asking the Brits on this forum to help me I.D. the different accents in 'Tinker, Tailor' and 'Peep Show'.

I felt like I was on the BBC.

MediumTex wrote:

dualstow wrote: Very nice podcast. I'm trying to focus on the content, but Jake I could listen to you just reading the phone book.
One of these days, I'm going to start a thread in the Other section asking the Brits on this forum to help me I.D. the different accents in 'Tinker, Tailor' and 'Peep Show'.

I felt like I was on the BBC.

Ha! My wife, who listens to BBC-4 every day and has a similar accent, asked me if I was listening to that.

Hehehe thanks guys. BBC: ha! That gave me a chuckle

Jake wrote: Our very own Medium Tex is the guest on my podcast this week. We talked about the permanent portfolio of course and, in particular, his approach to understanding all the different economic conditions we might face and how to be financially prepared for any of them as a private investor.

Here is the episode page http://thevoluntarylife.blogspot.co.uk/ ... -with.html

and here is the audio file http://thevoluntarylife.com/financial_preparedness.mp3

Did anyone else think MediumTex should have sounded like Bruce Campbell? I was fully expecting him to say "this, is my boomstick!" somewhere in the audio file.

Also, a fantastic job for the two of you. I thought it was a great audio file and very informative. I listened to it as I was washing dishes and made the whole experience much more enjoyable.