Gyroscopic Investing

I had teamed up with a couple partners to buy a small farm but finished second in the farm auction a few days ago.  The guy who won was some 70 year old 'tard.  This guy had gone bankrupt 3 times previously yet still scored a monster loan.   It really irks me when us cash investors lose out to a 3 time loser the banks feel is a good credit risk.  

It's like the real estate bubble that was fueled by banks handing out big loans to anyone with a pulse.  This drove up housing prices so that worthy people had to pay far more than they would have otherwise.  I'm afraid the same thing may be happening in the farm sector now.

Sorry for the rant - just had to get that off my chest.

You are so right. It's clear that anything that makes it easier to get a loan results precisely in one thing - higher prices. For example, take morgtage interest deduction - countries that don't have it didn't suffer as much from the real estate bubble as the US did.

Who knows, that guy might have gotten the loan by having his relatives co-sign on the loan (bad idea!).
I hope you will win next time! I think membership on this forum really should be considered as a plus by the lenders. 

Maybe it's a sign to cut back on buying farms and wait for a bust to get good deals?

foglifter wrote: You are so right. It's clear that anything that makes it easier to get a loan results precisely in one thing - higher prices.

Increased availability of student loans ---> Increased cost of higher education.

It's really sad that so many young people start their adult lives under a mountain of debt that a generation ago wouldn't have been necessary.

Very sad indeed.

dualstow wrote: Very sad indeed.

People they trusted told them that was the way to do it and they just followed their instructions.

I was fortunate to have been raised by parents whose earliest memories were of the last part of the Depression, and they passed on to me all sorts of beliefs that are suddenly making a lot more sense: stay out of debt, don't trust banks, the stock market is very risky, live below you means, etc.

craigr wrote: Maybe it's a sign to cut back on buying farms and wait for a bust to get good deals?

You may be right.  My brother and an former farm bank manger I know are deeply concerned about the loose credit situation in farming.  I've heard stories about farmers lying though their teeth on loan applications just like people when people lied on their mortgage applications in the mid 2000's. 

What stuns me is the bankers just accept the farmers at their word when they say, "Yeah I own 300 head of cattle.  I'll use them as collateral."  I know one farmer who used hat line when in fact he owned zero cattle. 

FarmerD wrote: I know one farmer who used hat line when in fact he owned zero cattle. 

So he really was "all hat, no cattle." 

MediumTex wrote:

dualstow wrote: Very sad indeed.

People they trusted told them that was the way to do it and they just followed their instructions.

I was fortunate to have been raised by parents whose earliest memories were of the last part of the Depression, and they passed on to me all sorts of beliefs that are suddenly making a lot more sense: stay out of debt, don't trust banks, the stock market is very risky, live below you means, etc.

Your parents sound an awful lot like mine.  Of course, those old fashioned ideas are out of vogue now.  A while back I bought a car.  I must have had 7-8 people ask me what the interest rate on my car loan was.  They all seem dumbfounded when I told I never have taken out a loan.  I save up my money, then when I have enough to buy a car, I buy it.  I don't think I have ever even carried a credit card balance over the past 25 years I've had a credit card.   

MediumTex wrote:

FarmerD wrote: I know one farmer who used hat line when in fact he owned zero cattle. 

So he really was "all hat, no cattle."   :D

Spoken like a true Texan. 

MediumTex wrote:

FarmerD wrote: I know one farmer who used hat line when in fact he owned zero cattle. 

So he really was "all hat, no cattle."   :D

LOL

MediumTex wrote:
I was fortunate to have been raised by parents whose earliest memories were of the last part of the Depression, and they passed on to me all sorts of beliefs that are suddenly making a lot more sense: stay out of debt, don't trust banks, the stock market is very risky, live below you means, etc.

same here... i am so glad that much of it rubbed off on me...

MediumTex wrote:

dualstow wrote: Very sad indeed.

I was fortunate to have been raised by parents whose earliest memories were of the last part of the Depression, and they passed on to me all sorts of beliefs that are suddenly making a lot more sense: stay out of debt, don't trust banks, the stock market is very risky, live below you means, etc.

My parents were married in 1929.  Of course what they lived through was passed on to me.  However, growing up and going to college in the '60's had its own profound affect.  The latter somtimes counteracted the former.  Not always for the better.

Alanw wrote:

MediumTex wrote:

dualstow wrote: Very sad indeed.

I was fortunate to have been raised by parents whose earliest memories were of the last part of the Depression, and they passed on to me all sorts of beliefs that are suddenly making a lot more sense: stay out of debt, don't trust banks, the stock market is very risky, live below you means, etc.

My parents were married in 1929.  Of course what they lived through was passed on to me.  However, growing up and going to college in the '60's had its own profound affect.  The latter somtimes counteracted the former.  Not always for the better.

I also had the experience of being a child whose earliest memories were of the economic stagnation of the late 1970s, so I had my own early childhood memories of a bad economic environment.  They say that whatever the "vibe" is in the world when you first become aware of vibes in a way that you can remember (normally age 5-7) tends to become your frame of reference for future vibes.

I also had the experience of being a child whose earliest memories were of the economic stagnation of the late 1970s, so I had my own early childhood memories of a bad economic environment.  They say that whatever the "vibe" is in the world when you first become aware of vibes in a way that you can remember (normally age 5-7) tends to become your frame of reference for future vibes.
[/quote]My childhood years at that age (5-7) were spent on a farm in the midwest.  My parents were of very modest means even though they owned the land.  We had a coal fired furnace for heat (of course no air conditioning) and the heat would seldom reach the second floor where the bedrooms were.  We had no running water in the house but a well and pump on the back porch.  I have fond memories of that period of my life because that was the only point of reference.  We had plenty of food, shelter and clothing and in my mind lacked nothing.  These memories I have carried forward into my adult life and have referenced frequently.

Trying to explain these humble beginings to todays "Apple" youth is like a cave man try to explain his home and crops to a wall street executive with a home in the Hamptons.  My two boys are the same way.  They can't comprehend those times and can't even imagine how we could have endured such hardship.  To me, there was no hardship, just a loving family living and working like everyone else in the neighborhood.

Alanw wrote: Trying to explain these humble beginings to todays "Apple" youth is like a cave man try to explain his home and crops to a wall street executive with a home in the Hamptons.  My two boys are the same way.  They can't comprehend those times and can't even imagine how we could have endured such hardship.  To me, there was no hardship, just a loving family living and working like everyone else in the neighborhood.

I don't want to wax too nostalgic here, but as crappy as the economy was, and as strange as the clothing styles were, and as ill-suited to the job of President as Carter was, there was some really good music being made back then, youth culture was really cool, and it wasn't the norm for children and adults alike to be taking a cocktail of medications to counter the effects of reality (though the teenagers and young adults apparently were self-medicating pretty heavily).

As cool as much of our technology is, I have this creeping feeling that we have created a world that fundamentally frightens us, and people seek refuge from this fear and sense of inadequacy in the form of things like mindless consumption, antidepressant medication and a sort of fast food approach to spirituality.

For anyone who has watched THX-1138 (George Lucas's first film--it's on Netflix), it's downright creepy how similar our world is in many ways to the world in that movie, right down to the constant surveillance and prescription cocktails to make us feel normal (which have the annoying habit of ceasing to work properly).  Here is the trailer for the film (2:19):

http://youtu.be/RL7517_udNI

MediumTex wrote:

Alanw wrote: Trying to explain these humble beginings to todays "Apple" youth is like a cave man try to explain his home and crops to a wall street executive with a home in the Hamptons.  My two boys are the same way.  They can't comprehend those times and can't even imagine how we could have endured such hardship.  To me, there was no hardship, just a loving family living and working like everyone else in the neighborhood.

I don't want to wax too nostalgic here, but as crappy as the economy was, and as strange as the clothing styles were, and as ill-suited to the job of President as Carter was, there was some really good music being made back then, youth culture was really cool, and it wasn't the norm for children and adults alike to be taking a cocktail of medications to counter the effects of reality (though the teenagers and young adults apparently were self-medicating pretty heavily).

As cool as much of our technology is, I have this creeping feeling that we have created a world that fundamentally frightens us, and people seek refuge from this fear and sense of inadequacy in the form of things like mindless consumption, antidepressant medication and a sort of fast food approach to spirituality.

For anyone who has watched THX-1138 (George Lucas's first film--it's on Netflix), it's downright creepy how similar our world is in many ways to the world in that movie, right down to the constant surveillance and prescription cocktails to make us feel normal (which have the annoying habit of ceasing to work properly).  Here is the trailer for the film (2:19):

http://youtu.be/RL7517_udNI

MT, wax all you want.  I'm sure everyone enjoys it.

It would be interesting to see how many individuals on this forum would have preferred "growing up" in an era other than the one they did.

As for me, I can't imagine a better time to spend my teenage and college years other than the 60's.  The music, much of which is still played today on clasic rock stations, college unrest, women's lib (Ah, women's lib), the drug culture and the general rebellious nature of that days youth.  Many of us who are still here remark about how miraculous it is that we survived that era. I still listen to the music of the 60's, 70's and 80's.  I'm sure my kids think of me the way I thought of my parents listening to big band music.

Yet here we are with all the modern trappings of flat screen tv's, computers, i-pods, i-phones, i-pads.  Yes I have them all except the i-phone.  Still can't give up my blackberry.  Would I trade it for my humble beginings?  Not a chance.

RE life in the 1970s, doesn't this just look like a window into an existence that is less self-conscious and distracted than ours:



(You may recognize one or more of the people in this photo.)

I was thinking about what our lives are like and it hit me that we are like air traffic controllers.  We have our little screens that we monitor and there is radio traffic to keep up with, and at any given time our heads are packed with a large number of unfolding events, one or more of which could be catastrophic if not managed properly.

Think about what the average person is monitoring:

1. Email traffic
2. Text message traffic
3. Cell phone traffic
4. Home phone traffic
5. Office phone traffic
6. Facebook traffic
7. News feed (i.e., entertainment masquerading as news)
8. Market data feed (i.e., investments)
9. Financial data feed (i.e., debit card/checking account balance)
10. Entertainment feed (Snookie, American Idol, etc.)

MediumTex wrote: RE life in the 1970s, doesn't this just look like a window into an existence that is less self-conscious and distracted than ours:



(You may recognize one or more of the people in this photo.)

I was thinking about what our lives are like and it hit me that we are like air traffic controllers.  We have our little screens that we monitor and there is radio traffic to keep up with, and at any given time our heads are packed with a large number of unfolding events, one or more of which could be catastrophic if not managed properly.

Think about what the average person is monitoring:

1. Email traffic
2. Text message traffic
3. Cell phone traffic
4. Home phone traffic
5. Office phone traffic
6. Facebook traffic
7. News feed (i.e., entertainment masquerading as news)
8. Market data feed (i.e., investments)
9. Financial data feed (i.e., debit card/checking account balance)
10. Entertainment feed (Snookie, American Idol, etc.)

My head is spinning.  Please send me back to the 60's.

Alcohol sales should plummet with Snookie being pregnant (no I don't watch Jersey Shore).
American Idol looks wide open this year (yes I watch, Idol).  My love for music has me tuned in to all the music shows;ie, Idol, The Voice, etc.

Is that Warren Buffett and family?

lazyboy wrote: Is that Warren Buffett and family?

Yes.

MediumTex wrote:

lazyboy wrote: Is that Warren Buffett and family?

Yes.

And "The Buff" still lives in the same house he bought 40 years ago. Or was it 50?

MediumTex wrote: Think about what the average person is monitoring:

1. Email traffic
2. Text message traffic
3. Cell phone traffic
4. Home phone traffic
5. Office phone traffic
6. Facebook traffic
7. News feed (i.e., entertainment masquerading as news)
8. Market data feed (i.e., investments)
9. Financial data feed (i.e., debit card/checking account balance)
10. Entertainment feed (Snookie, American Idol, etc.)

Good (and frightening) summary. I had the same realization recently, and it spurred me to start the process of "unplugging".

I recently took the step to remove work email from my phone. That's been a crutch for years, and took some practice. But now I don't look back at all - you don't realize how heavy that chain is until you cut it.

Next step - I'm in the process of weening myself from a smartphone data plan altogether. Havent quite made that leap, but once I do I can't imagine how much more time I'll have to think and not simply consume information.

Alanw wrote: It would be interesting to see how many individuals on this forum would have preferred "growing up" in an era other than the one they did.

I wouldn't.  All-in-all, I thought growing up in the sixties and seventies was great  -- probably a bit more fun and uncertain both than now.  As a male from a military family, the only real downer was when I realized at about age sixteen (1968 or so) how misconceived the Vietnam War was and how I might be forced to play a bit part in it if I didn't play my cards right.  Looking back, I feel a little sorry for some of the WWII-bred parents of the era who weren't able to view many of the "generation gap" and political turmoil issues in a broader philosophical/historical light.  The great music, soft drugs and pre-AIDs environment of the period was great fun for many of us in our late teens and early twenties, although some did crash and burn from too much excess.  I'm sure most women and black americans experienced there own unique combinations of exhilaration/disappointments during that time.

Too bad the "culture wars" of the period had to last so long.  Appreciating the fairly cyclical, but also unique, perspective each generation brings to a culture takes a long time -- more than a lifetime for many of us.  I find works (like the books written by Strauss and Howe) on this subject pretty interesting.