Gyroscopic Investing

Medium Tex has often said that he has got the impression that the PP only appeals to a certain mindset. Apparently because of that there is never any chance that it will become popular. I find it very hard to spot a common thread to the mindset of people who post on here. I like this forum precisely because it seems to be a meeting place for such diversely minded people- so unlike the typical echo chamber internet forum scenario.

If there was a room full of people and you had to work out who amongst them were the PP holders, would you have any chance or working out who they were based on talking to them about other stuff or whatever? What would give you clues? I'm struggling to imagine managing it myself.
One interesting similar situation I once came across was a large group photo of a crowd of mathematicians with one non-mathematician amongst them. I have a family member who is a mathematician. I found it immediately obvious who was the non-mathematician in the photo and that was true for other people too. Would PP holders really be like that

I'll go out on a limb here and say this as a newcomer:  I think there is, first of all, a certain segment of people who:

1.  Want to invest.  It seems most discussion groups like this are about 50/50 between people of normal modest means looking to build a retirement portfolio and people of extraordinary means looking to manage the portfolio they already have.

2.  Want value.  Some people seek not maximum return, but maximum return for expended effort.  I fully realize that if I put all my effort into it, there's a small chance I could be one of the few who discovers some investment method which yields much greater returns but it would represent an opportunity cost.  When it comes to investing, there are people who are happy to be average investors so they can be extraordinary in other ways instead.  But the critical third leg is:

3.  Want self direction/independence to some degree without tedium.  I really do not want the tedious task of selecting exactly how many shares of Exxon Mobil I think I should have, but at the same time I'm not content to buy a Targeted Fund or invest in Vanguard Wellesley or something like that either.

I would hazard a guess this sounds like it should be 50% or more of the population of developed countries, but in my life experience it's probably about a tenth of people and they tend to be predominantly male.

That's not quite the whole of it though, this is just that segment of the population which follows what I consider a "lazy" approach be it a Bogle-esque index fund portfolio or something else, like the PP.

The thing is, from a social perspective, anyone who holds a portfolio of passive investments with an allocation for some kind of diversity across broad asset classes is a freak, an anomaly, a weirdo.  This includes me and I say who wants to be completely normal?

The point being the people interested in the PP are a subset of this first group, and I think the PP is unique in its appeal.  I would hazard a further guess that its adherents:

1.  Are skeptical of societal instituitions but not to any degree of uniformity.  For pity's sake, I am a government employee and I don't think the government is necessarily evil, but I don't trust it any further than I can throw it.  Another thing is I don't trust someone else to make financial decisions for me.  Other people seem to be far more worried about tyranny or counterparty risks.  While I don't weigh that so heavily I understand the concern.

2.  Do not care about perpetuating orthodoxies for their own sake.

Now as to how to spot these people, I have no idea.

stone wrote: If there was a room full of people and you had to work out who amongst them were the PP holders, would you have any chance or working out who they were based on talking to them about other stuff or whatever?

As a nonbeliever when it comes to religion, sometimes I am surprised when I get to know a person and find out that s/he is religious. I hadn't seen it coming, and it usually turns out that religion was just something they were brought up with. Other times, I can pick it out. Some of my fellow unbelievers (unfairly) surmise that extremely religious people are unintelligent. I think that intelligence and religious beliefs can easily coinhabit the same mind. I cannot reliably predict who's going to be religious and who isn't.

Now, I know exactly why the pp appeals to me. I am not someone whom you 'd call a person with street smarts. I am slow to calculate, easily distracted when reading,  and I have an unreliable short term memory. However, I have a pretty decent long term memory, perhaps strenthened by habitual journal writing. In spite of my lack of quick intelligence or, more likely, as a direct result of experiencing this lack, I think I have acquired wisdom. It's a kind of "slow intelligence." I know myself. Therefore, I take steps to mitigate the impact that a lack of street smarts often brings.

I put my key in the same pocket of my pants, always. (I think I learned this from the director of 'Memento'). I have to remind myself that people make mistakes when giving change, and I have to eyeball calculations on spreadsheets to see if something just doesn't look right, instead of accepting everything at face value. I have to remind myself not to be gullible, and so on. These things aren't effortless for me, but require constant discipline.

When it comes to figuring out the economy, my experience is -- pun intended -- a 'no brainer'. With humility comes wisdom and unfortunately this scarecrow can't go and see the Wizard to learn that he's intelligent after all. What I can do is latch on to something like the permanent portfolio that frees me from having to make smart, timely decisions. I think Medium Tex once referred to Cuggino of PRPFX as a mere train driver. Well, that's all any of us need to be to run a pp. Harry Browne has already designed a fine train.

I have faith in the pp. I know it works.

I don't think most pp'ers are like me at all. I think many of them are exceedingly good at mathematics, like fnord. I think they are far closer to understanding how the economy works -- I *am* working on that. I think that they are far more likely to discover something better than the permanent portfolio should it ever come along. A huge sea change, something like that which Browne foresaw when he wrote 'How You Can Profit from the Coming Devaluation.'

So, I'm fortunate to be able to read the thoughts of others here, but I definitely cannot tell how some of them came to adopt a strategy that requires very little smarts, something as tinker-free as the pp.

dualstow, I once got a reference that said, "slow but gets there in the end". At the time I thought that that was pretty damning but perhaps that is like what you are describing and getting there in the end is what really matters . I hadn't imagined that such a trait was widespread amongst people who post on here but it would be curious if that were true.

dualstow, that is a really great post.

Lots of stuff packed into a small space.

I would say that an unusual level of humility may be one common thread that runs through many people who find the PP appealing.

Many thanks, MT.

stone wrote: dualstow, I once got a reference that said, "slow but gets there in the end". At the time I thought that that was pretty damning but perhaps that is like what you are describing and getting there in the end is what really matters . I hadn't imagined that such a trait was widespread amongst people who post on here but it would be curious if that were true.

Slow but gets there in the end, eh? I love it. Sounds like a savings bond. Or perhaps any kind of long-term investing. And yes, like me.

stone wrote: dualstow, I once got a reference that said, "slow but gets there in the end". At the time I thought that that was pretty damning but perhaps that is like what you are describing and getting there in the end is what really matters . I hadn't imagined that such a trait was widespread amongst people who post on here but it would be curious if that were true.

Having that trait is exactly why I picked "Tortoise" as my handle.