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Rule #17 in effect... Go to cash immediately!

Posted: Wed Jan 04, 2012 12:05 pm
by PP67
Rule #17: Your investment plan will fail as soon as you as you implement it...

I started my PP allocation today with about 50% of my easily accessible investment assets (after trying it for a whole 18 days last year before succumbing to 3 different pundits admonishments to get out of the market!)...  So this is far warning that you should all cash out your positions now as a crash is imminent!... Is there a hand-holding thread somewhere?...

Re: Rule #17 in effect... Go to cash immediately!

Posted: Wed Jan 04, 2012 12:53 pm
by MediumTex
PP67 wrote: Rule #17: Your investment plan will fail as soon as you as you implement it...

I started my PP allocation today with about 50% of my easily accessible investment assets (after trying it for a whole 18 days last year before succumbing to 3 different pundits admonishments to get out of the market!)...  So this is far warning that you should all cash out your positions now as a crash is imminent!... Is there a hand-holding thread somewhere?...
I view every thread here as having a "hand holding" element to it. 

Just hang in there and let the PP do its thing.  It's amazing how hard the PP can be initially and how easy it can be once you get into the groove.

For now, try not to think in terms of gains and losses; rather, try to start thinking in terms of having a well-designed method of participating in whatever market happens to be doing well at a given point in time.  When you are preoccupied with gains and losses, you will have a tendency to bail on the strategy at the first 2% decline or sell out of the entire portfolio when you see your first 2% gain.

The PP is supposed to be a multi-year, mutli-decade sort of approach to investing.  What you are talking about is digging up an acorn a week after you plant it because you don't suddenly see a giant oak in your yard.

One thing that you often see is that in the months and years following your PP implementation the PP asset that you had the hardest time buying will be the one that you most enjoy owning, while the asset that you thought was a no-brainer will surprise you with how poorly it does. 

The PP is simple, but it takes discipline.  Think of yourself as owning your own small casino where you have a house advantage on every game.  It's the knowledge that you have this house advantage that keeps you from closing your doors when you have a few days of gamblers taking more money out of the casino than they leave behind.  The house advantage doesn't guarantee that the house will have profits every single day, it just promises that if players play long enough they will lose and the house will win.

Re: Rule #17 in effect... Go to cash immediately!

Posted: Wed Jan 04, 2012 12:57 pm
by craigr
PP67 wrote: Rule #17: Your investment plan will fail as soon as you as you implement it...

I started my PP allocation today with about 50% of my easily accessible investment assets (after trying it for a whole 18 days last year before succumbing to 3 different pundits admonishments to get out of the market!)...  So this is far warning that you should all cash out your positions now as a crash is imminent!... Is there a hand-holding thread somewhere?...
We'll bring the hand-holding thread to you.

First I will say that you should stop watching the financial news. It has zero predictive value and no actionable information can be gained from it. Once it is on CNBC, there is simply no way you can make any use of the news to make a profit. The firms on Wall St. have already taken action.

Secondly, there is nothing that says you need to go 100% into the portfolio if you are nervous. You could be bulk in cash and a smaller part in the portfolio if you are worried.

For instance, you could go 70% in cash and 10% each into stocks, bonds and gold. Now let's say the doomsday for stocks come and they fall by 50%. A disaster for sure, right? Not in this case. A 50% drop in your 10% allocation would be a -5% impact on your money. That assumes no other assets rebound in response upwards which is unlikely. A -5% drop is peanuts in terms of investing and other risks that are out there.

Is 70% in cash not enough? Then go 85% and put 5% each into stocks, bonds and gold. A big -50% drop then will have a -2.5% impact.

You could run a portfolio like that for a while until you get comfortable. Then move more cash into the assets over time.

The big problem with this idea is to not turn it into a market timing maneuver. Which most people cannot do. But if you are determined to do it, then write down a statement like "I will put 5% of my cash into the allocation each month for the next X months." Then when the 1st of the month rolls around, do it. And in-between you should not be reading, watching or listening to any financial news. I would even limit intake of most major news media in general. As the election cycle rolls around it will be mixed with economic predictions. If something important in the world is happening, you'll hear about through friends and family anyway.

But the big thing is that you can start off small and go from there. I'm a lump sum guy personally but I understand your concern. Just be aware of the challenges involved in staying committed when you do things slowly. Each month will be a new chance to question your prior decisions or be influenced. It is a harder road to travel, but if it makes you feel better, that's what needs to be done.

For a few months or so after implementing my portfolio I did watch it frequently. But eventually I just began to not worry about it at all. That's what the portfolio brings to your life: Tranquility so you can focus on other things.

Re: Rule #17 in effect... Go to cash immediately!

Posted: Wed Jan 04, 2012 1:03 pm
by MediumTex
craigr wrote:
PP67 wrote: Rule #17: Your investment plan will fail as soon as you as you implement it...

I started my PP allocation today with about 50% of my easily accessible investment assets (after trying it for a whole 18 days last year before succumbing to 3 different pundits admonishments to get out of the market!)...  So this is far warning that you should all cash out your positions now as a crash is imminent!... Is there a hand-holding thread somewhere?...
We'll bring the hand-holding thread to you.

First I will say that you should stop watching the financial news. It has zero predictive value and no actionable information can be gained from it. Once it is on CNBC, there is simply no way you can make any use of the news to make a profit. The firms on Wall St. have already taken action.
Think of the financial news as the economic equivalent of sports talk radio.  It's noisy, it's passionate, it has apparent authority figures telling persuasive sounding stories, but it really doesn't tell you much about who is going to win the next game.  It's just entertainment.