Gyroscopic Investing

Serious question: What is the difference between HB's futility of predicting vs. reading the writing on the wall?

Coffee wrote: Serious question: What is the difference between HB's futility of predicting vs. reading the writing on the wall?

Normally, it's timing and scale of effects.

I can tell you many things that are virtually certain to happen in the future, but what I can't tell you is the precise date they will happen, the scale of the events' effects, or the ways in which people will react to and cope with the events.

Coffee wrote: Serious question: What is the difference between HB's futility of predicting vs. reading the writing on the wall?

I think that it's difficult to predict future events (and their timing) in a way that the market has not already priced.

If I give you a Nostradamus-style prediction of "In the future... there will be inflation!", it's difficult to know how to turn that into actionable investment advice based on the current prices of things like gold and silver.