Gyroscopic Investing

I'm having long term treasury at 29% and stocks at 21% and I feel temptation to rebalance. I never rebalanced and I'm not sure if I should do it at 20/30 rather than 15/35 given that I don't have to pay capital gain tax.

Just be prepared that stocks may fall further down, and bonds may appreciate further up. If that happens, don't blame the PP.

You could rebalance half way by bringing stocks up to 23% and bonds down to 27%.  Just by eyeballing charts, it seems like long term treasuries tend to mean revert pretty greatly in the medium term.

Rarely do you see the 10 year drop this much below the S&P 500 dividend yield.  Maybe that's not the best technical indicator, but it's something.  P/E ratios on stocks may not be stellar, but with bond rates so low, the alternative is hardly so either.

moda0306 wrote: Rarely do you see the 10 year drop this much below the S&P 500 dividend yield.  Maybe that's not the best technical indicator, but it's something.  P/E ratios on stocks may not be stellar, but with bond rates so low, the alternative is hardly so either.

You're right. Clearly this means that dividend yielding companies on the SP500 are about to cut dividends again, due to poor economic conditions, and thus reduce things back in line.

Also, everyday for the last 6 years, my neighbor has left his house at 6:02am. Today he left at 6:04am. The only logical explanation is brain cancer.

There are no indicators. Or there are indicators but you don't know if they were indicators until after they've indicated successfully.

Something like that.

TripleB... Not sure where the analysis ends and the sarcasm starts.

I don't know what the history is of companies lowering yields.  Personally, I tend to want to look at the fundamentals of the earnings of the companies, as well as their balance sheets, while putting only minimal weight on what dividends they're throwing out.  I was simply indicating that we're well past a threshhold that would maybe indicate expensive bonds & cheap stocks.... maybe.