Gyroscopic Investing

boglerdude wrote: ↑Wed Aug 27, 2025 10:50 pm https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A091RC1Q027SBEA

Completely scary.

Is this like Rome where Nero fiddled? Our politicians have been doing the same for decades on end?

I don't see any way out of it. They would have to let inflation run hot and keep interest rates low across the yield curve, not just the short end, by the Fed buying more and more and more and more and more longer term Treasury bonds, so that they could default by inflation... pay the bondholder at face value in 10, 20, 30 years but with money of greatly diminished purchasing power.

Loss of purchasing power will make everyone more miserable and poorer, trade barriers in the form of tariffs make both trading partners poorer. Can't wait to see those North American coffee crop and banana crop and wintertime fresh fruit production capabilities emerge. I'm sure that demand will make the supply magically appear.

Artificially low long rates will beggar the saver as we did all the way from GFC until only a few years ago, and will add fuel to Stupidity Bubbles and zombie companies that would die off and help reset the deck were it not for low interest financing.

When we have a true exploding crisis, they're going going to raise tax rates back anyway, when the other party is in power. Roth convert now, Take capital gains in a low tax regime.

Get your gold allocation set up, and hold it through cyclical bear markets. I think the crisis comes when Jamie Dimon suggested... around 2034. That's after the mandatory 23% Social Security haircut.

What’s GFC? I’m sure it will be totally obvious once I see it, but right now I can’t think of it.

dualstow wrote: ↑Mon Sep 01, 2025 2:16 pm What’s GFC? I’m sure it will be totally obvious once I see it, but right now I can’t think of it.

Must be Great Financial Crisis.

Ah, thank you Xan

I've been inclined to read it as Global Financial Crisis

Ah yes. That’s what Gemini says

seajay wrote: ↑Sat Sep 06, 2025 4:50 am I've been inclined to read it as Global Financial Crisis

Always (for those inclined to use oft-confusing acronyms).

yankees60 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 06, 2025 3:39 pm

seajay wrote: ↑Sat Sep 06, 2025 4:50 am I've been inclined to read it as Global Financial Crisis

Always (for those inclined to use oft-confusing acronyms).

Always what? Always grateful for an answer?

See what you did now ?!?!?

Fed cuts 0.25%

IEF is down, TLT is down.

People are going to be mad that mortgage rates aren't going down today!

Buy the rumor sell the news. Long rates will rise until (if!) the Fed steps in.

My brain says buy whats beat up, EDV. But I dunno...despite all time highs I dont see how you could end up a bagholder with gold.

the rate cuts raised inflation expectations for bonds with longer durations.

rates hit their highest in the last two weeks today on bonds

Expected, sell the news, was able to buy the mini dip after the announcement

Re-allocated from a few years ago, went from 0 to 25% gold, 25% VTSMX, 50% long treasury. Large emergency fund. If they decide to run the deficits with short issues only I'm toast.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A091RC1Q027SBEA

https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe