Gyroscopic Investing

I hadn't thought that gold would be tariffed... but yeah, why shouldn't it be?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-ta ... 39342.html

This sounds like a real chaos maker. It's just about like putting tariffs on foreign exchange movements, because gold is a currency. Gold is THE currency.

So gold could become more expensive for US buyers. Especially for States that have their own State taxes on bullion. What's the workaround? Use an ETF that stores outside the US? Perth Mint certificates?

I guess if you're a private gold seller in the US, you have more leeway to raise prices, since you're not going to pay the tariff on a sale to a person in the US. That could be good if you're divesting.

Bob is a good follow on X. He's been all over this story for weeks now:

I'd be extremely pissed off if tariffs and retaliatory tariffs harmed the safe haven / store of value role of gold.


LIKE THIS KIND OF ACTIVITY REALLY CREATES VALUE FOR HUMANITY :-(

“If you’re a trader and you can find someone who’s willing to sell you outside the US at a discount to the US price, and then ship it to the US on an airplane and sell it for $40 more, you’re going to do that,” said Max Layton, global head of commodities research at Citigroup Inc. “So of course there’s a scramble.”

It was in the low 2600s last week. i shouldn’t have blinked.

ochotona wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2025 11:50 am I'd be extremely pissed off if tariffs and retaliatory tariffs harmed the safe haven / store of value role of gold.


LIKE THIS KIND OF ACTIVITY REALLY CREATES VALUE FOR HUMANITY :-(

“If you’re a trader and you can find someone who’s willing to sell you outside the US at a discount to the US price, and then ship it to the US on an airplane and sell it for $40 more, you’re going to do that,” said Max Layton, global head of commodities research at Citigroup Inc. “So of course there’s a scramble.”

That would be smuggling, avoiding not paying the import tax on the gold when it entered the US.

The obvious outcome from US tariffs is indeed retaliatory tariffs and yet another step towards the US losing its role as a primary international trade settlement currency (demise of the dollar) that Xi and Putin will no doubt celebrate.

seajay wrote: ↑Wed Jan 22, 2025 10:02 am

ochotona wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2025 11:50 am I'd be extremely pissed off if tariffs and retaliatory tariffs harmed the safe haven / store of value role of gold.


LIKE THIS KIND OF ACTIVITY REALLY CREATES VALUE FOR HUMANITY :-(

“If you’re a trader and you can find someone who’s willing to sell you outside the US at a discount to the US price, and then ship it to the US on an airplane and sell it for $40 more, you’re going to do that,” said Max Layton, global head of commodities research at Citigroup Inc. “So of course there’s a scramble.”

That would be smuggling, avoiding not paying the import tax on the gold when it entered the US.

The obvious outcome from US tariffs is indeed retaliatory tariffs and yet another step towards the US losing its role as a primary international trade settlement currency (demise of the dollar) that Xi and Putin will no doubt celebrate.

Weren't tariffs one of the major causes of The Great Depression?

Dust bowl and panic. Stock bubble burst at the end of roaring 20s. Bank runs and hoarding. Fed couldnt step in to extend credit to sound business because the dollar was gold backed. OTOH when the Fed can simply print you get other problems. We should get rid of interest rates on fully liquid accounts. If you want interest you should have to tie that money up a few months. would mitigate bank runs.

boglerdude wrote: ↑Wed Jan 22, 2025 11:37 pm Dust bowl and panic. Stock bubble burst at the end of roaring 20s. Bank runs and hoarding. Fed couldnt step in to extend credit to sound business because the dollar was gold backed. OTOH when the Fed can simply print you get other problems. We should get rid of interest rates on fully liquid accounts. If you want interest you should have to tie that money up a few months. would mitigate bank runs.

Top response I got on a Bing search:

"The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, also known as the Tariff Act of 1930, increased import tariffs, which many economists blame for worsening the Great Depression123. While it may not have directly caused the Depression, its passage exacerbated the economic situation4."

Here is another article from Kitco... obviously with a Canadian slant, but it asks the question which I think is important...

“And that begs the question, why target Canada when you're going to have to replace it with foreign product from somewhere else?"

They cite oil as example. US has to get heavier crude for blending in refineries... we have to get it from Canada, Venezuela, Saudi, and I think Mexico's Maya crude is heavy. Our existing refineries can't refine West Texas crude alone, that stuff is extremely light (honestly, it might blow a refinery up if you tried).

Here’s a podcast that talks about what’s going on with gold, starting at about the 28 minute mark. I listened on Apple Podcasts but it is on all of them. YouTube link below.

Podcast name is Doug Casey’s Take, episode 369.

If you’d like to hear alternative opinions on Gaza and USAID, start at the beginning. Just post any of that in its own thread. The USAID stuff is wild.

They did put in a plug for SWP Cayman. I really need to get going on that.

Do they forecast bad things for paper gold ETFs like IAU?

stuper1 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 05, 2025 1:53 pm Do they forecast bad things for paper gold ETFs like IAU?

Not exactly but he is of the same mind as HB was. Physical gold.

I Shrugged wrote: ↑Wed Feb 05, 2025 12:49 pm Here’s a podcast that talks about what’s going on with gold, starting at about the 28 minute mark. I listened on Apple Podcasts but it is on all of them. YouTube link below.

Podcast name is Doug Casey’s Take, episode 369.

If you’d like to hear alternative opinions on Gaza and USAID, start at the beginning. Just post any of that in its own thread. The USAID stuff is wild.

I listened to the whole thing. When I saw the picture of Doug Casey in what you put here plus when I went there ... I thought to myself is this the same Doug Casey who wrote all those books in the 80s? However, if so, wouldn't he look a lot older than he does in that picture? As soon as it started he did look old enough. And, sometimes Biden-like in being defectively old.

Don't know who the other person was. Had never heard of him. Did not seem like either did much preparation for the show. Just like two people talking to one another without doing any preparation.

ochotona wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2025 10:59 am I hadn't thought that gold would be tariffed... but yeah, why shouldn't it be?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-ta ... 39342.html

This sounds like a real chaos maker. It's just about like putting tariffs on foreign exchange movements, because gold is a currency. Gold is THE currency.

So gold could become more expensive for US buyers. Especially for States that have their own State taxes on bullion. What's the workaround? Use an ETF that stores outside the US? Perth Mint certificates?

I guess if you're a private gold seller in the US, you have more leeway to raise prices, since you're not going to pay the tariff on a sale to a person in the US. That could be good if you're divesting.

The arbitrage will settle down - much more of settlements usually made in cash having transitioned over to asking for physical delivery will be balanced out. US taxation (tariffs) on top of regular US taxation of gold would seem to be just a means to further dissuade Americans from holding 'dirty' money (hard cash, gold ..etc. that can transact outside of state monitored digital audit trails). Absent physical dollar bills or the likes of gold ... digital only transactions, and that monopoly can levy any charges it likes (absent any competition). As does state visibility/control open up potential additional tax revenues - individuals fined for having bought too much red meat or suchlike.