Gyroscopic Investing

Hi Everyone,

A few job changes over the last couple of years allowed me to roll over some employer-sponsored 401k's into a personal IRA that gives me a whole lot more freedom in terms of what I can invest in. As a result I jumped into the Golden Butterfly portfolio after reading about it here and on Tyler's site. I was familiar with the Permanent Portfolio after reading Fail-Safe Investing years ago.

I'm curious. Are most people here invested in a traditional PP, a GB, or something else entirely?

burley wrote: ↑Mon Aug 26, 2024 2:40 pm I'm curious. Are most people here invested in a traditional PP, a GB, or something else entirely?

Good Morning Burley,

Depends on the funds available where you live, and the tax sheltered retirement account rules. For us in Australia, we just do 25% Gold, 75% Vanguard VDCO. The Early Retirement Extreme website has some useful information.

burley wrote: ↑Mon Aug 26, 2024 2:40 pm Hi Everyone,

A few job changes over the last couple of years allowed me to roll over some employer-sponsored 401k's into a personal IRA that gives me a whole lot more freedom in terms of what I can invest in. As a result I jumped into the Golden Butterfly portfolio after reading about it here and on Tyler's site. I was familiar with the Permanent Portfolio after reading Fail-Safe Investing years ago.

I'm curious. Are most people here invested in a traditional PP, a GB, or something else entirely?

For my main portfolio I'm currently holding 1/3rd each in value stocks, long treasury bonds, and long/flat commodities.

Golden Butterfly in my 401k and basic stock in taxable that is slowly backing into gold, treasuries, small cap value. But still mostly stocks. I also would not do cash in the 401k in hindsight.

Seemed like enough of a push to get me to check. Currently:

37% Stocks
27% T-Bills
18% Gold
10% I-Bonds
7% TIPS
1% Cash

Supposed to add up to roughly 50% in high-quality USG debt and the remaining 50% split up into 2/3 Stocks & 1/3 Gold. Alas, the latter two have done so well in 2024 that they are just a bit high. I keep asking my wife if we should sell down Stocks and Gold and her response is borrowed from this Carvana commercial:



So we HOOOOOLD!!

barrett wrote: ↑Wed Sep 25, 2024 6:18 am Seemed like enough of a push to get me to check. Currently:

37% Stocks
27% T-Bills
18% Gold
10% I-Bonds
7% TIPS
1% Cash

Supposed to add up to roughly 50% in high-quality USG debt and the remaining 50% split up into 2/3 Stocks & 1/3 Gold. Alas, the latter two have done so well in 2024 that they are just a bit high. I keep asking my wife if we should sell down Stocks and Gold and her response is borrowed from this Carvana commercial:



So we HOOOOOLD!!

Looks QUITE good!

I'm currently 16% each of US Large Cap Growth, US Small Cap Value, Intl Small Cap Value, Cash, Long Term Treasuries and Gold with 4% in Managed Futures.

I plan on slowly transitioning to equal weights of all seven asset classes (noted above).

joypog wrote: ↑Thu Sep 26, 2024 2:40 pm I'm currently 16% each of US Large Cap Growth, US Small Cap Value, Intl Small Cap Value, Cash, Long Term Treasuries and Gold with 4% in Managed Futures.

I plan on slowly transitioning to equal weights of all seven asset classes (noted above).

I was just reading that some guru (reputable one) stated that if you had Small Cap in either US or International, you did not need it both places. One was enough.

It's possible...but in any case, it gives me some international exposure and with a state pension on the back end, I can push to be closer to 50% stocks. And the reality is that my intl portion is half MCW and half SCV because of my 401k offerings.

pp + vp // ends up being not much of a pp

Stocks 58% // mostly domestic to
Bonds 16% // nearly all treasuries; not many left that would qualify for long-term per Harry Browne
Cash 16%
Gold 8% // @Smithers: “whole coiner”
iBonds 2%

I am a long time lurker, started learning about the PP in 2008. My current portfolio is very much influenced by Tyler's excellent writing and his Golden Butterfly portfolio, also Harry Browne's advice for people who consider government treasury bonds to be immoral (since their value is based on siphoning off wealth from productive citizens in the future). I would go to 20% in AAA corporate bonds if there were more companies to choose from.

25% US small cap value
20% US large cap growth
20% gold
15% t-bills (cash and up to one year treasuries)
10% Long corporate AAA rated bonds (basically Microsoft and J&J)
10% 5-10 year treasuries (since I live in the US, and have to use bills issued by the US Treasury as money regardless- I decided that is the longest dated bond I will invest in now)

This is where I am heading, but I did the regular PP for quite a while and some of my individual treasuries are still longer dated: up to 2050, sigh. They are my big losers, of course. I am just letting them age into the new version of my portfolio instead of selling them. (I sold TLT a couple of years ago, good riddance)

Greetings from Europe. My USD-based portfolio is still pure of the purest HBPP, though only 5 years in it (invested since end of 2019) happy so far... Haven't calculated the performance in the last year or so, but think its doing rather well nowadays. Anyway, working for an early retirement, no time for that haha. Wish you all the best, folks.

PS. Btw, lately I also invest in buying useful things - solar panels, etc. home resilience stuff (did I mention guns ). Well, not yet a real prep (or might be I do not realize it yet) .. Well, the good thing is one does not need to be a prepper to make self independence 'tools' work for him/her, now.
PPS. New iPhone and brand new BMW are not useful things, IMHO

Always good to hear from Vil.
I thought BMW's and Mercedes were less expensive and less of a big deal in Europe. I might be out of date. I was told that in the very early 90's.

60% Total Stock Market
20% Long Term Treasurys (mostly individual issues)
20% Gold (about 2/3 physical at a depository, other 1/3 in SGOL ETF)

I have lots of cash too, but I hold cash based on my need to sleep at night. I don't manage it based on wanting a fixed allocation, but if I were to weigh in the cash it would look like this
49% Total Stock Market
17% Long Term Treasurys (mostly individual issues)
17% Gold (about 2/3 physical at a depository, other 1/3 in SGOL ETF)
17% Cash

welderwannabe wrote: ↑Thu Oct 03, 2024 12:56 pm ..17% Gold (about 2/3 physical at a depository, other 1/3 in SGOL ETF)
17% Cash

I misread the 2/3 physical as being for cash for a moment and imagined you had rubberbanded bricks of the stuff

I follow the standard 4x25 PP with a 20/30 (not 15/35) rebalancing band. Keeping things simple enables me to sleep well at night, and makes rebalancing easier. But if I had to do it over I might have done the Golden Butterfly from the start, and I'm still considering a switch to GB.

50% equity funds

33% ultra short to intermediate term bonds , some high yield and floating rate

6% gold , oil , bitcoin

11% cash instruments

welderwannabe wrote: ↑Thu Oct 03, 2024 12:56 pm 60% Total Stock Market
20% Long Term Treasurys (mostly individual issues)
20% Gold (about 2/3 physical at a depository, other 1/3 in SGOL ETF)

I have lots of cash too, but I hold cash based on my need to sleep at night. I don't manage it based on wanting a fixed allocation, but if I were to weigh in the cash it would look like this
49% Total Stock Market
17% Long Term Treasurys (mostly individual issues)
17% Gold (about 2/3 physical at a depository, other 1/3 in SGOL ETF)
17% Cash

A sensible allocation. Where are you in your lifecycle?

Jack Jones wrote: ↑Fri Oct 11, 2024 10:46 am

welderwannabe wrote: ↑Thu Oct 03, 2024 12:56 pm 60% Total Stock Market
20% Long Term Treasurys (mostly individual issues)
20% Gold (about 2/3 physical at a depository, other 1/3 in SGOL ETF)

I have lots of cash too, but I hold cash based on my need to sleep at night. I don't manage it based on wanting a fixed allocation, but if I were to weigh in the cash it would look like this
49% Total Stock Market
17% Long Term Treasurys (mostly individual issues)
17% Gold (about 2/3 physical at a depository, other 1/3 in SGOL ETF)
17% Cash

A sensible allocation. Where are you in your lifecycle?

My wife and I are 49 years young/old...

I am 100% on

European permanent portfolio

And wondering if I should add USA HB-PP

There is a Spanish guy with multiple PP from Europe and UK and US and more …

Let me know your thoughts

Hug

total global stock index
gold
the currency you spend in
long bonds from a very stable gov

it looks to me like a lot of posters here are not hb 4x4 investors.

likely a lot more are not than are

mathjak107 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 08, 2025 8:03 am it looks to me like a lot of posters here are not hb 4x4 investors.

likely a lot more are not than are

Time for a new poll of sorts?

burley wrote: ↑Mon Aug 26, 2024 2:40 pm Hi Everyone,

Just a side note — I was surfing wikipedia yesterday, starting at SMS and eventually I ended up at Bell Labs and its once upon a time operating system, Plan 9.

Lo and behold, the mascot, Glenda, is Burley’s avatar!

frugal wrote: ↑Sat Feb 08, 2025 12:34 am I am 100% on
European permanent portfolio
And wondering if I should add USA HB-PP
There is a Spanish guy with multiple PP from Europe and UK and US and more …
Let me know your thoughts
Hug

What is your part for Stocks?