Gyroscopic Investing

Not to be confused with the ‘Best Deals Right Now in Gold.’ This is not the best deal. There’s a French 20-franc rooster coin on sale at Apmex.
I usually stick with 1 oz bullion for investments, but I’m tempted to have one or a few to add to the collection.
Does anyone own a rooster?

dualstow wrote: ↑Tue Mar 19, 2024 10:03 am Not to be confused with the ‘Best Deals Right Now in Gold.’ This is not the best deal. There’s a French 20-franc rooster coin on sale at Apmex.
I usually stick with 1 oz bullion for investments, but I’m tempted to have one or a few to add to the collection.
Does anyone own a rooster?

No, but it definitely looks cool!

I see a lot of gold bullion on sale at Apmex today, but due to the price rise I can't even think about it.

dualstow wrote: ↑Mon Apr 01, 2024 2:39 pm I see a lot of gold bullion on sale at Apmex today, but due to the price rise I can't even think about it.

Buy some chocolate gold coins then. Much cheaper and taste much better!

Why not
Well, maybe the occasional fractional gold. “Expensive” and yet palatable.

Krugs on sale
https://www.apmex.com/product/62/south- ... andom-year

Eagles, too.

dualstow wrote: ↑Mon Apr 01, 2024 2:39 pm due to the price rise I can't even think about it.

Recent gold/silver ratio of 84+ and selling a ounce of gold in return for 84 ounces of silver ... and some time later the GSR might have dropped back down to 42, so those 84 ounces of silver buy 2 ounces of gold.


https://www.macrotrends.net/1441/gold-to-silver-ratio

seajay, have you ever bought (or sold) gold per the ratio?

dualstow wrote: ↑Sat Jul 27, 2024 4:56 pm seajay, have you ever bought (or sold) gold per the ratio?

Yes. Indeed recently, 85+ ounces of silver for a ounce of gold having been the temptation. I may very well switch back when it takes 70 ounces of silver to buy a ounce of gold (20% more gold). Historically high gold-silver ratio has tended to reduce as high inflation declines more towards average levels (and here in the UK inflation hit 11% in 2002/3), where gold levels off or even declines a little in nominal terms (loses in real term) whilst silver rises (both in nominal and real terms). Economy improves pushing silver for manufacturing purposes higher, gold becomes less sought after prior/recent relatively strong inflation busting gains - inciting rebalancing out of gold into stocks (that at which times are perceived to be better value - resumption of greed over fear). Perhaps my move is too early, but better to be before rather than subsequent regrets (a.k.a the GSR could still extend to 100+ before subsequently at some point dropping to 70 levels, which motion isn't a issue if bought-and-held, only a issue if you need to sell (substantial amounts/all)).

Interesting. Imagine if we could actually buy gold with silver, and vice versa, with no friction.
I would definitely participate in that.

dualstow wrote: ↑Mon Jul 29, 2024 6:22 am Interesting. Imagine if we could actually buy gold with silver, and vice versa, with no friction.
I would definitely participate in that.

When a price chart has Bollinger Bands added and the price has rattled along the upper (or lower) BB level for a while, the BB range widened, that can lead to a reversal of the price down to the opposite end BB. For instance recently the GSR is up at the upper BB and the BB range (red and green lines) has widened



With Bullonvault the first $75K/year of trade value incurs a 0.5% cost, thereafter that drops to 0.1% (and further down to 0.5% at $750K/year) https://www.bullionvault.com/help/QuickStart.html Which might be considered as a 0.4% x $75K = $300 yearly membership fee and a 0.1% trade cost, Within that link they claim the average spread is zero.

Looking at a recent snapshot https://www.bullionvault.co.uk/order-board.do



the best Buy price for gold is 1854.39 (London vault) and best Sell 1850.93 (Zurich vault) so 0.1% fee to buy in Zurich and 0.187% spread 0.1% fee to sell in London i.e. < 0.4% full round trip (ignoring the $300/year 'membership fee'). The same can obviously be applied to silver, sell gold from one vault, buy silver in another (or even same) vault.

For a 'golden membership' that costs the equivalent of £1050/year, trade costs of 0.05% narrow the conceptual sell gold to buy silver round trip to 0.287% i.e. < 0.3%. (two 0.05% commissions + 0.187% spread).

Perhaps half your gold in 'bottom draw' physical/in-hand (bought and left), half in BullionVault or suchlike - for 'trading'. With maybe periodic (infrequent) moves to/from physical. Here in London the likes of Tavex https://tavexbullion.co.uk/ that is a relatively short (and free coz I'm old (60's)) subway ride away typically has a spot+2% buy (10+ one ounce gold coins), spot -1% sell back spread, but where if you're selling a reasonable number they may offer spot (or maybe more such as if they're running low of stock that might otherwise lose them 'out-of-stock' business).

For single coins gold/silver groups might typically buy/sell coins at spot, seller pays the <1% secure/insured postage cost. Oh and here legal tender gold is exempt from capital gains taxation (nor can losses be offset, but for other gold losses can be claimed).

Worth it? Well looking at the GSR chart https://www.macrotrends.net/1441/gold-to-silver-ratio and in 1984 it was down at 50 levels. Setting simple/crude 60 upper/50 lower trade range, swap silver for gold at GSR 50, swap gold forsilver at GSR 60



and before 1995 (start of the above chart) you would have rotated into silver at some point (60 GSR), and subsequently gone on to full-flip 3 more times since as the GSR transitioned through 60+ and 50- levels. Each full-flip = 60/50 benefit = 20% more gold per full-flip. 1.2 compounded 3.5 times = 100% more gold, since 1985 and bearing in mind we're half way through a 4th flip ... and of the order 1985-2024 = 1.65% annualized benefit (gross). For very low effort/slow swing trading.

Combined with stock and that in itself will add more ounces/reduce stock shares, or add more shares/reduce ounces in a add-low/reduce-high trading style manner if you just periodically rebalance the two. Additionally I 'trade' two forms of shares that are both 'world' type stock fund holdings, one a ETF the other is like a Mutual that at times may trade at premium/discount to net asset value. Flip into the 'Mutual' when at a -10% discount (at a level where the specific fund itself looks to buy back shares), flip into the ETF when the Mutuals price to NAV discount closes to 0% ... type rotations.

The other account worthwhile opening is a margin account. Perhaps a CME Futures account. Primarily for short duration leveraged shorts, infrequently used. A available option to short stocks and/or gold to some/all of your total exposure levels if/when breaking news might suggest it to be a reasonable time to be out of the market - without having to close/dump all your actual holdings.

If you can add 1% or 2% alpha, 'trading' gains, then that's like uplifting the worst cat SWR by 1 or 2%, potentially just as safe to draw a 5% or 6% SWR instead of a 4% SWR. Which for some might be worthwhile. Personally I don't bother with bonds, just hold stocks and gold (silver). I don't like the idea of lending to someone who has a money printing press.

seajay wrote: ↑Mon Jul 29, 2024 6:55 pm I don't like the idea of lending to someone who has a money printing press.

That reminds me of something craigr said about TIPS, not bonds in general: “Why buy fire insurance from the arsonist?”

As for the rest of your post, whoosh! I know Harry Browne said something in favor of technical analysis if it’s done properly. I only have a small particle of brain, so will continue to just accumulate when I can and sell when I need to rebalance .

dualstow wrote: ↑Mon Jul 29, 2024 7:24 pm

seajay wrote: ↑Mon Jul 29, 2024 6:55 pm I don't like the idea of lending to someone who has a money printing press.

That reminds me of something craigr said about TIPS, not bonds in general: “Why buy fire insurance from the arsonist?”

As for the rest of your post, whoosh! I know Harry Browne said something in favor of technical analysis if it’s done properly. I only have a small particle of brain, so will continue to just accumulate when I can and sell when I need to rebalance .

Even just splitting your gold 50/50 gold/silver (yearly rebalaned) historically uplifted rewards



to a 4.5% SWR since 1932 (putting aside Americans couldn't trade gold 1933-1975, across which time silver served as a reasonable alternative). Data based on macrotrends year end gold and silver prices to 1967, LBMA year end data since 1968. A modified simbas backtest spreadsheet for the TSM/inflation data and chart production).

Setting that single 4.5% SWR worst case aside, and 5% SWR had high success rate.

Is something wrong with my browser/system, or is entering text into the post box slowed for everyone (board issue)? Starts off OK but for longer posts such as this there's a distinct lag.

seajay wrote: ↑Mon Jul 29, 2024 8:33 pm
Is something wrong with my browser/system, or is entering text into the post box slowed for everyone (board issue)? Starts off OK but for longer posts such as this there's a distinct lag.

I haven’t had any issues this week but I know what you’re taking about. I’ve had that happen before.