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Are you positive or negative on the future?
Posted: Sat Dec 17, 2022 10:25 am
by jalanlong
I have heard investor psychologists say that how you invest depends on your outlook for the future. If you are a positive person you will most likely be heavy into stocks? Negative you may be into gold. I am guessing risk parity portfolios would be for people who are agnostic. I have also heard other psychologists say that people in general are predisposed to be negative.
What are you experiences with being a positive or negative about the future and how does that affect your investment choices?
Re: Are you positive or negative on the future?
Posted: Sat Dec 17, 2022 10:47 am
by Mountaineer
I am a positive realist. The glass is neither half empty nor half full, it’s just twice as big as it needs to be.
I am heavily invested in my eternal future.
Re: Are you positive or negative on the future?
Posted: Sat Dec 17, 2022 12:05 pm
by yankees60
I am definitely a positive for the future. That in most ways the world just keeps getting better and better. Therefore that does lead to investing in equities to an extent.
Re: Are you positive or negative on the future?
Posted: Sat Dec 17, 2022 1:57 pm
by Smith1776
I adopt the Harry Browne philosophy on this one... I guess that's why I invest in the PP?
That is: I don't know what the future will bring, and I am therefore totally neutral about it.
Re: Are you positive or negative on the future?
Posted: Sat Dec 17, 2022 1:58 pm
by jalanlong
yankees60 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 17, 2022 12:05 pm
I am definitely a positive for the future. That in most ways the world just keeps getting better and better. Therefore that does lead to investing in equities to an extent.
Not to sidetrack the original question but even though we can back up with statistics that many, many areas of life have shown incredible improvements in our lifetimes, does it really matter if the populace believes the opposite? Almost every friend or family member I know thinks this is the most dangerous/divisive time in our history. From parents who are convinced they cannot let their children out of their sight or they’ll get abducted to my leftist friends who believe the earth is burning up and racism is the worst it has ever been; if these people actually believe and vote/behave as if it is the case, then does it matter if it is not true?
Re: Are you positive or negative on the future?
Posted: Sat Dec 17, 2022 3:32 pm
by yankees60
jalanlong wrote: ↑Sat Dec 17, 2022 1:58 pm
yankees60 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 17, 2022 12:05 pm
I am definitely a positive for the future. That in most ways the world just keeps getting better and better. Therefore that does lead to investing in equities to an extent.
Not to sidetrack the original question but even though we can back up with statistics that many, many areas of life have shown incredible improvements in our lifetimes, does it really matter if the populace believes the opposite? Almost every friend or family member I know thinks this is the most dangerous/divisive time in our history. From parents who are convinced they cannot let their children out of their sight or they’ll get abducted to my leftist friends who believe the earth is burning up and racism is the worst it has ever been; if these people actually believe and vote/behave as if it is the case, then does it matter if it is not true?
Depends how truly prevalent the view you state is.
My main recent social activity was my fall softball team. I was its coach and I was there for a lot of games that my team was not involved in.
In all cases I saw a lot of happy people, enjoying themselves.
What you state above was not the topic of conversations I overheard.
Wouldn't people's actual behaviors be a better measure than what they say they believe?
Similar to the thing I have oftentimes read ....that your true values are revealed by your checkbook. In other words, you can say you believe in this and support this but your checkbook reveals the true realities of your life.
Re: Are you positive or negative on the future?
Posted: Sun Dec 18, 2022 8:31 pm
by boglerdude
When I changed middle school from NY to AZ in the 90s, people were shocked by my cynicism
You can get away from negative people.
My investments are pro-growth because of the past mistake of the housing bubble. If I were liquid Id be more defensive, but thats because I have enough (to live in a ghetto and eat once a day)
Tech will keep improving, drones doing most of the work...and surveilling us. Will those productivity gains be shared, or will low-skill labor be given only enough wealth not to riot? Maybe what happens in China over the next year will be informative...
Re: Are you positive or negative on the future?
Posted: Mon Dec 19, 2022 6:32 pm
by Mountaineer
A not so positive view of the future:
https://www.resilience.org/stories/2020 ... -collapse/
“Greer estimates that it takes, on average, about 250 years for civilizations to decline and fall, and he finds no reason why modern civilization shouldn’t follow this “usual timeline.”[3]
But Greer’s assumption is built on shaky ground because industrial civilization differs from all past civilizations in four crucial ways. And every one of them may accelerate and intensify the coming collapse while increasing the difficulty of recovery.”
Re: Are you positive or negative on the future?
Posted: Mon Dec 19, 2022 6:35 pm
by yankees60
Mountaineer wrote: ↑Mon Dec 19, 2022 6:32 pm
A not so positive view of the future:
https://www.resilience.org/stories/2020 ... -collapse/
“Greer estimates that it takes, on average, about 250 years for civilizations to decline and fall, and he finds no reason why modern civilization shouldn’t follow this “usual timeline.”[3]
But Greer’s assumption is built on shaky ground because industrial civilization differs from all past civilizations in four crucial ways. And every one of them may accelerate and intensify the coming collapse while increasing the difficulty of recovery.”
I am sure that most here are well aware of this 50 year old book?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Limits_to_Growth
The report concludes that, without substantial changes in resource consumption, "the most probable result will be a rather sudden and uncontrollable decline in both population and industrial capacity". Although its methods and premises were heavily challenged on its publication, subsequent work to validate its forecasts continue to confirm that insufficient changes have been made since 1972 to significantly alter their nature.
Re: Are you positive or negative on the future?
Posted: Wed Dec 21, 2022 3:16 pm
by dualstow
jalanlong wrote: ↑Sat Dec 17, 2022 10:25 am
What are you experiences with being a positive or negative about the future and how does that affect your investment choices?
Things are getting better
and worse all the time.
Agnostic-to-positive.
pp and lots of equities
Re: Are you positive or negative on the future?
Posted: Wed Dec 21, 2022 4:42 pm
by I Shrugged
Suggested book:
The Rational Optimist, by Matt Ridley.
Re: Are you positive or negative on the future?
Posted: Wed Dec 21, 2022 11:26 pm
by yankees60
I Shrugged wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 4:42 pm
Suggested book:
The Rational Optimist, by Matt Ridley.
Had prior been unaware of it. Looks like a good one. Thanks.
Re: Are you positive or negative on the future?
Posted: Tue Jan 24, 2023 6:59 pm
by I Shrugged
Here is a 6 minute video by John Stossel on the subject. It features the constantly wrong Paul Ehrlich (
Population Bomb), Greta T, and a guy, Marian Tupy, who argues the other side and has written a new book,
Superabundance.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GZmVLpfunzE