Gyroscopic Investing

Thanks for banning me Xan.
Even more time to reflect how pathetic this portfolio is along with the crooks that sold it as the holy grail.

Good riddance to all of you.
Economic climates, one asset will buoy the portfolio…what a joke…all cratered at the same time.
Thanking my lucky stars I abandoned this concept earlier this year.

Budd, I recommend trying to get every cent out of the "crooks" that they got from you.

Xan wrote: ↑Tue Aug 30, 2022 3:28 pm Budd, I recommend trying to get every cent out of the "crooks" that they got from you.

I doubt they have any to give.
Dying portfolio, dying site…
Good luck to you.

buddtholomew wrote: ↑Tue Aug 30, 2022 3:19 pm
Thanks for banning me Xan.
Even more time to reflect how pathetic this portfolio is along with the crooks that sold it as the holy grail.

Good riddance to all of you.
Economic climates, one asset will buoy the portfolio…what a joke…all cratered at the same time.
Thanking my lucky stars I abandoned this concept earlier this year.

If I am seeing this how were you banned?

I'm equally confused.

It's kind of like when I joke around with people and say to them, "Sorry, I don't speak english."

And the PP isn't dying nor dead.

It's fucking awesome.

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 30, 2022 4:04 pm It's kind of like when I joke around with people and say to them, "Sorry, I don't speak english."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Rl9Cxc7uZA

joypog wrote: ↑Tue Aug 30, 2022 4:32 pm

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 30, 2022 4:04 pm It's kind of like when I joke around with people and say to them, "Sorry, I don't speak english."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Rl9Cxc7uZA

lol the bloopers for that movie were hilarious.

On another note: I love that I've adopted a strategy that most people don't like, or even despise. Going with the crowd and the "cheery consensus" hardly yields good results. Give me unusual any day of the week.

yankees60 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 30, 2022 3:56 pm

buddtholomew wrote: ↑Tue Aug 30, 2022 3:19 pm Thanks for banning me Xan.
Even more time to reflect how pathetic this portfolio is along with the crooks that sold it as the holy grail.

Good riddance to all of you.
Economic climates, one asset will buoy the portfolio…what a joke…all cratered at the same time.
Thanking my lucky stars I abandoned this concept earlier this year.

If I am seeing this how were you banned?

I was banned for some time just like the Chinese get rid of those that speak out against the state.

buddtholomew wrote: ↑Wed Aug 31, 2022 12:50 pm I was banned for some time just like the Chinese get rid of those that speak out against the state.

Ahhhhh makes sense now.

Welcome back, I hope you enjoyed your stay at Cabo de Reeducación.

Budd, serious question, why do you continue to frequent the forum if this strategy causes you this much angst and irritation?

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 31, 2022 1:17 pm Budd, serious question, why do you continue to frequent the forum if this strategy causes you this much angst and irritation?

Budd has been asked this question several times...it is one of life's great mysteries. :-)

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 31, 2022 1:17 pm
Budd, serious question, why do you continue to frequent the forum if this strategy causes you this much angst and irritation?

Also, Budd ... I try to see the whole person rather than some limited things the person expresses opinions on here.

Therefore I have valued your presence here.

Particularly when it came to your weight lifting feats.

On a personal note ... I was stuck forever on a 175 pound deadlift and could not even budge 180 pounds 1/16" off the floor. That five pound increase was just too much for me.

I finally broke down and spent about $40 for 5 pounds total weight consisting of a pair of 1/4, 1/2, 3/4, 1. I then started increasing all my weights each session by 1/2 pound more than the prior.

By doing that I did 5 reps this morning of 202 pounds deadlift! It was only around March that I had been stuck at the 175 pounds with seemingly no paths to go forward. It only took me 11 years of rapidly plateauing to finally achieve a solution!

yankees60 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 31, 2022 1:23 pm

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 31, 2022 1:17 pm Budd, serious question, why do you continue to frequent the forum if this strategy causes you this much angst and irritation?

Also, Budd ... I try to see the whole person rather than some limited things the person expresses opinions on here.

Therefore I have valued your presence here.

Particularly when it came to your weight lifting feats.

On a personal note ... I was stuck forever on a 175 pound deadlift and could not even budge 180 pounds 1/16" off the floor. That five pound increase was just too much for me.

I finally broke down and spent about $40 for 5 pounds total weight consisting of a pair of 1/4, 1/2, 3/4, 1. I then started increasing all my weights each session by 1/2 pound more than the prior.

By doing that I did 5 reps this morning of 202 pounds deadlift! It was only around March that I had been stuck at the 175 pounds with seemingly no paths to go forward. It only took me 11 years of rapidly plateauing to finally achieve a solution!

Excellent yankees60, that is exactly the approach to take when attempting to breakthrough any plateaus. I too use 1/4# weights to progress.

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 30, 2022 5:40 pm On another note: I love that I've adopted a strategy that most people don't like, or even despise. Going with the crowd and the "cheery consensus" hardly yields good results. Give me unusual any day of the week.

SPY YTD -17%
TLT YTD -22%
GLD YTD -5%

How could you possibly be comfortable with the PP?

buddtholomew wrote: ↑Wed Aug 31, 2022 2:33 pm

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 30, 2022 5:40 pm On another note: I love that I've adopted a strategy that most people don't like, or even despise. Going with the crowd and the "cheery consensus" hardly yields good results. Give me unusual any day of the week.

SPY YTD -17%
TLT YTD -22%
GLD YTD -5%

How could you possibly be comfortable with the PP?

Well, cause no portfolio has been spared from the rout, and the lump of cash has done its job.

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 31, 2022 2:35 pm

buddtholomew wrote: ↑Wed Aug 31, 2022 2:33 pm

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 30, 2022 5:40 pm On another note: I love that I've adopted a strategy that most people don't like, or even despise. Going with the crowd and the "cheery consensus" hardly yields good results. Give me unusual any day of the week.

SPY YTD -17%
TLT YTD -22%
GLD YTD -5%

How could you possibly be comfortable with the PP?

Well, cause no portfolio has been spared from the rout, and the lump of cash has done its job.

I don’t hold LTT’s so I have been spared the rout. If you go back a few threads you’ll see me write “soon people on this board will be touting the 25% cash position as the saving grace”. Also, cash has not done its job as it has under-performed inflation.

Point is the PP has an achilles heal and rising interest rates is the straw that broke the camels back.

Noise about noise.

The March 2008 drawdown (end October 2008) was deeper in nominal terms -12%

Start End Length Recovery By Recovery Time Underwater Period Drawdown

Mar 2008 Oct 2008 8 months Aug 2009 10 months 1 year 6 months -12.01%

PV

Feels like the present drawdown might excel that in both depth and duration. More so in real terms.

But most wont be buying in and selling out across that period and are more inclined to be looking at the broader/longer-term outcome. And where drawing income might be taken from the least down (cash or gold, both down around -2.7% YT end of July 2022).

Taking a marked to market hit against LTT's now is of course in part compensated by higher yields/income to come. More ideally another of the assets might have stepped up to cover the capital decline 'losses', but that doesn't always perfectly align in time, can take weeks/months, as the 2008 drawdown case indicates. A greater risk is that of deep and prolonged drawdowns (years), which the PP is more inclined to avoid.

It's rare for all four of the assets to be down such amounts, when so there's a inclination towards forward time seeing one (or more) pop quite substantially to the upside in compensation. Which could even be LTT's.

buddtholomew wrote: ↑Wed Aug 31, 2022 2:51 pm
I don’t hold LTT’s so I have been spared the rout. If you go back a few threads you’ll see me write “soon people on this board will be touting the 25% cash position as the saving grace”. Also, cash has not done its job as it has under-performed inflation.

Point is the PP has an achilles heal and rising interest rates is the straw that broke the camels back.

You could have been spared even more if you had abandoned stocks, too.

buddtholomew wrote: ↑Wed Aug 31, 2022 2:29 pm

yankees60 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 31, 2022 1:23 pm

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 31, 2022 1:17 pm
Budd, serious question, why do you continue to frequent the forum if this strategy causes you this much angst and irritation?

Also, Budd ... I try to see the whole person rather than some limited things the person expresses opinions on here.

Therefore I have valued your presence here.

Particularly when it came to your weight lifting feats.

On a personal note ... I was stuck forever on a 175 pound deadlift and could not even budge 180 pounds 1/16" off the floor. That five pound increase was just too much for me.

I finally broke down and spent about $40 for 5 pounds total weight consisting of a pair of 1/4, 1/2, 3/4, 1. I then started increasing all my weights each session by 1/2 pound more than the prior.

By doing that I did 5 reps this morning of 202 pounds deadlift! It was only around March that I had been stuck at the 175 pounds with seemingly no paths to go forward. It only took me 11 years of rapidly plateauing to finally achieve a solution!

Excellent yankees60, that is exactly the approach to take when attempting to breakthrough any plateaus. I too use 1/4# weights to progress.

It has been even been recommended to me here to do that long ago.

My major stumbling block was that I looked at me having paid $225 for a half rack, nice bench, Olympic bar, and 275 pounds of Olympic weights.

Therefore paying $40 for just 5 pounds of weights seemed like extremely poor value.

But, now as we both know, that was $40 quite well spent as it's allowed me to progress like I never would have without them.

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 31, 2022 3:53 pm

buddtholomew wrote: ↑Wed Aug 31, 2022 2:51 pm
I don’t hold LTT’s so I have been spared the rout. If you go back a few threads you’ll see me write “soon people on this board will be touting the 25% cash position as the saving grace”. Also, cash has not done its job as it has under-performed inflation.

Point is the PP has an achilles heal and rising interest rates is the straw that broke the camels back.

You could have been spared even more if you had abandoned stocks, too.

honestly…down the toilet you go
TLT -2.2%, GLD -1.1%
cinco de mayo, bye bye yo…

buddtholomew wrote: ↑Thu Sep 01, 2022 9:19 am honestly…down the toilet you go
TLT -2.2%, GLD -1.1%
cinco de mayo, bye bye yo…

lmao ok

buddtholomew wrote: ↑Wed Aug 31, 2022 2:51 pm

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 31, 2022 2:35 pm

buddtholomew wrote: ↑Wed Aug 31, 2022 2:33 pm

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 30, 2022 5:40 pm On another note: I love that I've adopted a strategy that most people don't like, or even despise. Going with the crowd and the "cheery consensus" hardly yields good results. Give me unusual any day of the week.

SPY YTD -17%
TLT YTD -22%
GLD YTD -5%

How could you possibly be comfortable with the PP?

Well, cause no portfolio has been spared from the rout, and the lump of cash has done its job.

I don’t hold LTT’s so I have been spared the rout. If you go back a few threads you’ll see me write “soon people on this board will be touting the 25% cash position as the saving grace”. Also, cash has not done its job as it has under-performed inflation.

Point is the PP has an achilles heal and rising interest rates is the straw that broke the camels back.

Not to pour fuel on this fire, but I will admit being surprised and disappointed that the gold component has not performed better than it has this year. Last time we saw a high inflation/rising rate environment was the late 70s and early 80s. The PP performed very well at that time because gold rose to the occasion, in a big way.

One observation - in the historical charts, I have noticed a certain inverse relationship between the PP and USD. This is probably mostly due to gold moving inversely to the USD. But for reasons I don't understand, that pattern seems to have changed from 2015 onwards.