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When does PP inflation protection usually kick in?
Posted: Mon Mar 28, 2022 12:48 pm
by jason
CAGR of the PP from Jan 2021 through now is around 1%. Inflation during that time frame was over 8%, so we are about 11% short of the inflation plus 4% that the PP usually makes. I know it takes time to work itself out. Historically, has there been a delay between when inflation kicks in and the PP starts providing inflation protection? How long of a delay has been typical?
Re: When does PP inflation protection usually kick in?
Posted: Mon Mar 28, 2022 1:12 pm
by Hal
Here's a starter
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-sta ... lation-cpi
You may wish to check out John Williams at
http://www.shadowstats.com for the non-rigged inflation rate
I believe the indicator to watch is the real interest rate. From what I recall, once that goes negative gold tends to increase in value.
Too early in the morning now
Re: When does PP inflation protection usually kick in?
Posted: Mon Mar 28, 2022 3:34 pm
by perfect_simulation
Inflation is always a lagging indicator. HB said gold will move when inflation surpasses 8, 9%. But the caveat is that much of this inflation is supply chain related. Time will reveal the truth. Glad to be in gold regardless.