Gyroscopic Investing

With skyrocketing fuel prices and an economy in deep stress, this is starting to remind me of 2008, with differences, of course. This should be where the PP earns it's keep. What do you think?

Fed wont give you time to buy the dip. And move to FL/TX.

I can't say yet that it feels like 2008, but it feels similar to Q3 and Q4 of 2007 that's for sure. Big tech started to stumble, but I especially started to feel it when the S&P failed to match the previous high, on February 9, I've been assuming big downs after that day. We're certainly down from near 4800, but still a long way off of a 20% pullback which would be around 3,837. BUT, another 8% from here isn't unthinkable with the invasion of Ukraine, the already high inflation, and inflation that is likely to go much higher, rising rates.

Smells like a recession is hiding just around the corner ahead to me.

Don wrote: ↑Sat Mar 05, 2022 1:58 pm With skyrocketing fuel prices and an economy in deep stress, this is starting to remind me of 2008, with differences, of course. This should be where the PP earns it's keep. What do you think?

Except that in 2007 the 30 year Treasury was almost 5%. Now it is 2.24%. What can you reasonably expect out of LTTs now? I have added some commodity etfs to my gold slice to try and boost those returns since I don't think the other 3 components are going to help much.

Don wrote: ↑Sat Mar 05, 2022 1:58 pm With skyrocketing fuel prices and an economy in deep stress, this is starting to remind me of 2008, with differences, of course. This should be where the PP earns it's keep. What do you think?

Yes. I suspect US permanent portfolio investors can consider the road map for their performance to be what Iceland did during that previous period.

I think we'll get to learn what a permanent portfolio can do in the midst of the loss of reserve status of the dollar.

I suspect we'll find out definitively that bitcoin is not the digital gold that has been touted as.

Gas hasnt reached 2008 peak

https://twitter.com/safrazie/status/1499913594556674050

jalanlong wrote: ↑Mon Mar 07, 2022 4:45 pm

Don wrote: ↑Sat Mar 05, 2022 1:58 pm With skyrocketing fuel prices and an economy in deep stress, this is starting to remind me of 2008, with differences, of course. This should be where the PP earns it's keep. What do you think?

Except that in 2007 the 30 year Treasury was almost 5%. Now it is 2.24%. What can you reasonably expect out of LTTs now? I have added some commodity etfs to my gold slice to try and boost those returns since I don't think the other 3 components are going to help much.

This is the part that has me most concerned. Add in very high stock valuations (not sure exactly how it compares to 2008ish time frame, but regardless, they were overpriced then and they're overpriced now), and we have lots to be concerned with, and not much 'juice'/fed firepower left to help overcome what may be heading down the pipe. It sounds ridiculous to say right now, with inflation roaring, but I still wonder if we don't end up with a severe bout of deflation as these bubbles start to burst. Sadly, if we don't get at least some deflation, I can't see how the PP will deliver anything close to 3-6% real over the next several years.

I going with a triple stagnflation hedge.

OIL
GLD
Bitcoin.

With BTC growing popularity, gold hasn't been really behaving as it once was as an inflation hedge, so I figure adding some oil stocks to mix.

BTC actually holding up pretty well too the Ukraine war. seems to sort have decoupled from the stock market.

thoughts?

var wrote: ↑Wed Mar 09, 2022 12:36 pm BTC actually holding up pretty well too the Ukraine war. seems to sort have decoupled from the stock market.

thoughts?

Bitcoin's Correlation to S&P 500 Hits 17-Month High
The 90-day correlation between the top cryptocurrency and the S&P 500 has risen to its highest level since October 2020.

bitcoininthevp wrote: ↑Mon Mar 28, 2022 12:37 pm *

where’s that bat signal that kriegs created for bitcoininthevp?

I had to migrate from BreadWallet to Coinbase. Tim Draper says they’re not going to go bankrupt. Still…if they do, our wallets may be emptied. I wonder what I should do with my 0.08 BTC

dualstow wrote: ↑Mon May 16, 2022 2:23 pm

bitcoininthevp wrote: ↑Mon Mar 28, 2022 12:37 pm *

where’s that bat signal that kriegs created for bitcoininthevp?

I had to migrate from BreadWallet to Coinbase. Tim Draper says they’re not going to go bankrupt. Still…if they do, our wallets may be emptied. I wonder what I should do with my 0.08 BTC

I have not used Coinbase's wallet. The Coinbase Wallet is separate from Coinbase (the exchange). Coinbase Wallet is non custodial so its not subject to bankruptcy risks as you hold your own keys.

Of course any wallet software can change (hack, regulatory, etc) so those sorts of risks still apply.

Wow that was fast. Thank you. I …. think I hold my own keys. I hold something. The same passphrase I had set up with Breadwallet. I’ll have to do some reading.

dualstow wrote: ↑Mon May 16, 2022 3:22 pm Wow that was fast. Thank you. I …. think I hold my own keys. I hold something. The same passphrase I had set up with Breadwallet. I’ll have to do some reading.

I think they bought BRD (Bread wallet) and are largely compatible is my understanding.