Gyroscopic Investing

Hi Folks,

I decided to track a simple crypto port. Let's see how it does.
Just to keep it simple I am using BTC and ETH. I have other altcoins but I have excluded them to keep things simple.

starting with 20k on 12.28.21

*formating is a little off.

CRYPTO USD crypto price qty
BTC 10000 48465 0.2063344682
ETH 10000 3850 2.597402597

Buying the dip 5k in ETH and BTC.


buy the dip 1.10.22
CRYPTO USD crypto price added qty previous qty new total qty
BTC 5000 41860 0.1194457716 0.2063344682 0.3257802398
ETH 5000 3075 1.62601626 2.597402597 4.223418858

How goes?

Well hit a bear market


Btc recovered hit 49k then dropped to 39k
Next stop 53k


Eth at 2222

I think it will be positive 2024.

I have added more Btc

Avg cost about 20k

Forgot to add I am trading alt coins


But for the sake of newbs.

I think one should only trade Btc and eth as they always recover

Consider Bitcoin as a 5x tech stock type holding, so 5% bitcoin instead of 25% stock, 25% gold (PAXG perhaps, or XAUt), and the rest in dollars (50% USDt) and you can backtest that in PortfolioVisualizer - such as comparing to the PP https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... jatgsAU96x



Not much point in going back earlier than 2019 however as bitcoin was still pretty much a wild-west back then, has only really become more mainstream since 2019

PortfolioVisualizer doesn't seem to have PAXG or XAUt so I just used regular gold

That's without any staking (lending of crypto assets), which is highly variable ranging up to double digits amounts, presumably in reflection of high risks of defaults.

Cool SeeJay,

to update all... I moved off Gold for the most part, and I've been a Bitcoin maxi.

BTC has been performing exceptionally well, outperforming the TQQQ and UPRO, which I both have.

negative on owning miners like RIOT or MARA. BTC mining requires too much infra investment.

that said IBIT ETF been my trading vehicle.

Hello



What do you recommend for European investors ?

Regards

var wrote: ↑Wed Jul 09, 2025 11:15 pmBTC has been performing exceptionally well, outperforming the TQQQ and UPRO, which I both have.

That's standard form. Leveraged holdings will rise more during Bull phases, dive deeper during Bear phases. Wouldn't be surprised to see another October type crash this year across which Bitcoin/TQQQ/UPRO could each dive deeply (in reflection of S&P500 declines). Trick is to be prepared for such (potentially seeing 90% or deeper declines in leveraged holdings i.e. having taken some of the good upside gains off the table).

I further suspect that long dated treasury's might correlate, yields rising (price falling), so the BogleHeads hedgefundie 3x long stock, 3x long long dated treasury combination might not hedge as they expect. The likes of GDE might fair better (90 long stock, 90 gold exposure (1.8x leverage of stock/gold)). Futures based gold is more tax efficient in the US, but that flips around the other way here in the UK so as a form of replication I'd be inclined to go with something like 25 TQQQ/75 gold (1.5x leverage of 50/50 stock/gold).

Trump is really playing a dice roll with the US - that could backfire big time as it did in the 1930's when tariffs were seen as a easy escape/road. Increasingly 'others' are seeing the US as a no-go, just too uncertain/variable. We've already seen -6% type US/others trade declines, whilst others to others trade is up +12% type levels. Wouldn't take much for a trickle to turn into a torrent - sudden largescale/rapid selling of US dollars/US treasury's/US stocks.

May all work out OK, but best to keep in mind how you are placed if it doesn't.

var wrote: ↑Tue Dec 28, 2021 10:56 am CRYPTO USD crypto price qty
BTC 10000 48465 0.2063344682
ETH 10000 3850 2.597402597

Perhaps consider selling (profit taking) half of that at recent price levels and putting half of that into something like USDt (stablecoin/cash) and half into GDE. Be better placed to be able to buy more BTC/ETH if/when prices dive (average up the number of shares (bitcoin) you hold after declines).