Gyroscopic Investing

mathjak107 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 10:14 am It back tested to within spitting distance of the pp without gbtc and that was through a time that was ripe for the pp with low rates and falling inflation ..

Now it will be interesting to watch it going forward under the opposite conditions

I bet a GB with BITCOIN outperforms.

dualstow wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 10:03 pm
Vinny, your analogy is flawed in at least two ways, but probably far more than that. This just has nothing to do with fans of an athlete. Hell, it has nothing to do with entertainment! These are people’s financial plans we’re talking about here. Retirement! Financial security!

You focused too much on the specifics of my analogy. The larger point was people trying to exert some degree of control over the lives of others when those people have no rights to exert this control. It is not their lives.

ppnewbie wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 12:19 pm

mathjak107 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 10:14 am It back tested to within spitting distance of the pp without gbtc and that was through a time that was ripe for the pp with low rates and falling inflation ..

Now it will be interesting to watch it going forward under the opposite conditions

I bet a GB with BITCOIN outperforms.

Well track it going forward, let’s see

mathjak107 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 1:56 pm

ppnewbie wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 12:19 pm

mathjak107 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 10:14 am It back tested to within spitting distance of the pp without gbtc and that was through a time that was ripe for the pp with low rates and falling inflation ..

Now it will be interesting to watch it going forward under the opposite conditions

I bet a GB with BITCOIN outperforms.

Well track it going forward, let’s see

Sorry - meant to say I bet it beats your portfolio. But one take away for me is that a ~5% allocation to gbtc to my GB could be very wise.

It may or may not …my portfolio unlike wellsely does not have long term bonds if rates rise and inflation won’t come down ….

While wellesly is close it isn’t the same..wellesly has a lot of bonds going out 10-30 years.. only the equity allocation is in the range. Wellesly has no high yield either

There is a big difference in bond side

vnatale wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 12:35 pm

dualstow wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 10:03 pm Vinny, your analogy is flawed in at least two ways, but probably far more than that. This just has nothing to do with fans of an athlete. Hell, it has nothing to do with entertainment! These are people’s financial plans we’re talking about here. Retirement! Financial security!

You focused too much on the specifics of my analogy. The larger point was people trying to exert some degree of control over the lives of others when those people have no rights to exert this control. It is not their lives.

Yes, but it’s the permanent portfolio forum, for shit’s sake. Not mathjak’s life album! I think you missed that!

It looks like if we were not discussing me , there wouldn’t be a discussion here and this forum would be dead. So at least some activity is better then no activity if it is interesting activity…

If it wasn’t for something I said or a response to bud there is nothing to read here for days on end

mathjak107 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 3:52 am It looks like if we were not discussing me , there wouldn’t be a discussion here and this forum would be dead. So at least some activity is better then no activity if it is interesting activity…

If it wasn’t for something I said or a response to bud there is nothing to read here for days on end

Now that I agree with. It might be easier to rename the forum.
Look, the fundamental problem, which I have failed to communicate to Vinny is this:

At bogleheads, there was a single Permanent Portfolio thread where craigr posted his ideas aboout Harry Browne’s pp. It wasn’t Craig posting in every single section and thread saying that the Boglehead 3-fund portfolio was a bet against xyz, with people asking for followups on Craig’s magical portfolio.

At some point, I suggested that you corral your ideas into a single place, which i set up for you: Mathjak’s daytrading thread. That seemed to work for awhile. Then you disappeared for a while, took a break, got covid, recovered, came back. “I’m not really posting because I’m not running the pp right now.”

Now it seems to be the mathjak forum. That’s cool, except it was supposted to be the pp forum. Admittedly, there’s not much left to say about it that hasn’t been said. What continues on are the Lounge area, for off-topic fun stuff and news, and the obligatory But Does It Still Work?/Is it Different This Time?

It’s clear that if someone were curious about the pp, they would have to dig deep to find posts that correspond with the principles in the book(s). Gold? That’s for daytrading. Bonds? Those are done. Cash? No sir. I’ve got a 3-fund leveraged thing that is way better. Rebalancing? Tactical rebalancing.

As pug would say, whatever. I can’t spend hours a day moving posts. I’m just continuing to enjoy the lounge section, keeping tabs on what Kriegs is drinking today.

The problem is when statements are made about the pp action , others ask questions about what I am doing or try to counter what was said about the pp with a negative to what my alternatives are or how they perform.

So any comment against something about the pp results in discussions of what happens when you go other routes …it is almost like you cant discuss economics without some how politics and government actions being brought in

Yep. But it should probably be routed to an existing thread, like the aforementioned Mathjak thread, so that a newbie sees that the alternatives exist (not to mention the alternatives all over the rest of the web) but sees pp threads about the pp.

Meh ….

My feeling is a newbie should be exposed to as much information about the pp as they can both good and bad .

Moving certain facts away and only presenting the good really is not a good thing to do to new bees ..but then it goes back to the discussion being flipped back in to my choices and direction on a negative .

So if you are going to have informative discussions and not just praise's or a doctor phil support group high fiving each other ,all these discussions go together.

So any discussion of the pp that looks at good and bad will always be pulled in to other directions or alternatives

mathjak107 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 8:09 am Meh ….

My feeling is a newbie should be exposed to as much information about the pp as they can both good and bad .

Moving certain facts away and only presenting the good really is not a good thing to do to new bees ..but then it goes back to the discussion being flipped back in to my choices and direction on a negative .

So if you are going to have informative discussions and not just praise's or a doctor phil support group high fiving each other ,all these discussions go together.

So any discussion of the pp that looks at good and bad will always be pulled in to other directions or alternatives

As I see it, we don't have a healthy balance of skepticism for the newbies. We have a forum with 98% posts from you. You suck up all the oxygen, derail each thread, and leave nothing else to discuss other than you, your thoughts, your portfolio, etc. Perhaps there would be more intelligent discussion/activity on the PP threads, both for and against, if you didn't derail every discussion and divert it into the same old tropes that we discuss ad nauseum.

There are next to no posts in this forum …I can easily not post it means nothing to me whether I post or not ..but I try to At least keep posts alive , interesting and informative.

No problem we can just go back to near no posts in this section then there is nothing new to read or take interest in …

In fact , I am done here ….i don’t think you really care about discussing the pros and cons of the pp at all in this forum or alternative ideas for supporting up some of the pp weaknesses.

Because quite frankly there is nothing else left to discuss about it

dualstow wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 5:55 am It’s clear that if someone were curious about the pp, they would have to dig deep to find posts that correspond with the principles in the book(s).

This is exactly why (though I frequently recommend the PP to others for consideration) I never suggest this forum. I have no problem with Mathjak, but there seem to be few PP purists active at this point. Perhaps simply because its all been said over the years. Perhaps because we are deep into a long Bull Market. Regardless of the reason, you truly do have to dig deep to find posts that “correspond with the principles in the book(s)”, and IMO a newbie is more likely to be turned off the PP these days by coming to the forum than turned on. I am glad that I found the original BH thread, HB radio show archives, and book(s) first myself.

Sorry if that is harsh, I do enjoy the forum. Just very glad that I got a thorough grasp of the concepts/theory behind the portfolio before exposure. Now back to lurking…

Lorddoskias123 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 9:11 am

dualstow wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 5:55 am It’s clear that if someone were curious about the pp, they would have to dig deep to find posts that correspond with the principles in the book(s).

This is exactly why (though I frequently recommend the PP to others for consideration) I never suggest this forum. I have no problem with Mathjak, but there seem to be few PP purists active at this point. Perhaps simply because its all been said over the years. Perhaps because we are deep into a long Bull Market. Regardless of the reason, you truly do have to dig deep to find posts that “correspond with the principles in the book(s)”, and IMO a newbie is more likely to be turned off the PP these days by coming to the forum than turned on. I am glad that I found the original BH thread, HB radio show archives, and book(s) first myself.

Sorry if that is harsh, I do enjoy the forum. Just very glad that I got a thorough grasp of the concepts/theory behind the portfolio before exposure. Now back to lurking…

I think this is a common problem of old forums.

I'm with you, Lordo, and would wager that there are a lot of us here.

I started w/ PP in the late 80's but didn't go all-in until seeing what happened to my slice-and-dice portfolio in 2007, finding this forum about that time. I have learned a ton here, including enough to switch to GB. That was prompted by many voices, including people raising concerns about various aspects of PP and other voices searching for viable alternatives/mitigation for those concerns. Most recently, I have learned about iBonds here and am about to take the plunge for my first $25k. There is a lot of practical advice here, but it's definitely not a place where a PP noob will easily pick it up. Most is buried in the historical forums.

My point is that I see this forum like a family party. Everyone brings what they have in terms of experience, knowledge and personality. Some don't want to be in the middle of it but often have something valuable to say if you draw it out. Others want to be the center of attention. Just like with my family, feel that I can learn from them all, but just have to filter carefully. For example, I bought and am currently reading the book Mathjak recommended by Clyatt that describes a withdrawal strategy that I had not previously considered.

I do think sometimes we spin ourselves up too much on single trains of thought; be that a single economic opinion, or politics or religion (just like my family!). Thoughtful people who are drawn here by the headline maybe get tired of the type of discussion that is now happening and move on. There are still thoughtful voices here, but we could all name many more who are now mostly or completely absent from the family.

My hope is that this forum will pivot back to financial focus as covid passes. We'll see.

Be well.

If people are concerned about maintaining a clean, well-lit place to educate others about the PP, perhaps there should be a separate Permanent Portfolio Skepticism forum.

flyingpylon wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 12:31 pm If people are concerned about maintaining a clean, well-lit place to educate others about the PP, perhaps there should be a separate Permanent Portfolio Skepticism forum.

I see no issue with that type of stuff being covered in the VP forum section? Perhaps that's too simplistic of a thought, though, and not delineated enough from the main forum.

To reiterate, I see no issue with debate for and against the portfolio being covered inside the PP forum, but when every single thread devolves into some derivation of interest rate risk for the portfolio, with lots of 'expertise' being shared with an admittance that the person has no intention of tracking the performance of their 'expertise', it seems to damage the usefulness of the entire forum to me.

flyingpylon wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 12:31 pm If people are concerned about maintaining a clean, well-lit place to educate others about the PP, perhaps there should be a separate Permanent Portfolio Skepticism forum.

E.g. every second when gold is down, the guy is screaming about it and about the portfolio.

mathjak107 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 3:52 am It looks like if we were not discussing me , there wouldn’t be a discussion here and this forum would be dead. So at least some activity is better then no activity if it is interesting activity…

If it wasn’t for something I said or a response to bud there is nothing to read here for days on end

What’s unseen are all the posters who have tired of the MJ forum, and left.

Ugly_Bird wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 1:20 pm

flyingpylon wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 12:31 pm If people are concerned about maintaining a clean, well-lit place to educate others about the PP, perhaps there should be a separate Permanent Portfolio Skepticism forum.

E.g. every second when gold is down, the guy is screaming about it and about the portfolio.

Budd is just trolling. In some ways that’s easier to take.

I Shrugged wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 2:02 pm

Ugly_Bird wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 1:20 pm

flyingpylon wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 12:31 pm If people are concerned about maintaining a clean, well-lit place to educate others about the PP, perhaps there should be a separate Permanent Portfolio Skepticism forum.

E.g. every second when gold is down, the guy is screaming about it and about the portfolio.

Budd is just trolling. In some ways that’s easier to take.

It is pointless, it floods the forum, creates negativity, deters the newbies... yes, this is trolling.

mathjak107 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 8:41 am There are next to no posts in this forum …I can easily not post it means nothing to me whether I post or not ..but I try to At least keep posts alive , interesting and informative.

No problem we can just go back to near no posts in this section then there is nothing new to read or take interest in …

In fact , I am done here ….i don’t think you really care about discussing the pros and cons of the pp at all in this forum or alternative ideas for supporting up some of the pp weaknesses.

Because quite frankly there is nothing else left to discuss about it

If mathjak is in fact done, let the record show he quit on a day when his oft-hated LTTs are the only thing carrying water for the portfolio (or likely any portfolio).

I, for one, enjoy reading mathjak's posts even if I don't always agree with them. I've learned from him and I hope that we have a big enough tent here not to drive him away.

Lorddoskias123 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 9:11 am

dualstow wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 5:55 am It’s clear that if someone were curious about the pp, they would have to dig deep to find posts that correspond with the principles in the book(s).

This is exactly why (though I frequently recommend the PP to others for consideration) I never suggest this forum. I have no problem with Mathjak, but there seem to be few PP purists active at this point. Perhaps simply because its all been said over the years. Perhaps because we are deep into a long Bull Market. Regardless of the reason, you truly do have to dig deep to find posts that “correspond with the principles in the book(s)”, and IMO a newbie is more likely to be turned off the PP these days by coming to the forum than turned on. I am glad that I found the original BH thread, HB radio show archives, and book(s) first myself.

Sorry if that is harsh, I do enjoy the forum. Just very glad that I got a thorough grasp of the concepts/theory behind the portfolio before exposure. Now back to lurking…

Not at all harsh. In fact, I appreciate your post, because I can’t tell what the lurkers out there are thinking.