Permanent Portfolio Forum
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https://www.gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=12325
Excellent post, thanks! Sounds similar to Soro's theory of reflexivity.Kriegsspiel wrote: ↑Wed Oct 13, 2021 3:07 pm Interesting longread about the concept of "the bezzle" and economic fakery.
Why the Bezzle Matters to the Economy
Calling a top is one of the most difficult things to do. It's the old shorting saying...the market can go up longer than you can remain solvent.barrett wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 11:55 am Yes, thanks for posting this! For those of you who have read the piece or are otherwise familiar with the bezzle, do you think that a PP-esque portfolio can withstand the unwinding stage? Does it follow that unwinding benefits high-quality long duration bonds? I mean, such an unwinding is deflationary, right? Or is cash potentially the big winner because of the optionality that it offers?
Not sure if this question should be spun off to another post .. but.. What is everyone's best guess as to what HB would be recommending if he still had his call in show?Kbg wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 2:08 pmCalling a top is one of the most difficult things to do. It's the old shorting saying...the market can go up longer than you can remain solvent.barrett wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 11:55 am Yes, thanks for posting this! For those of you who have read the piece or are otherwise familiar with the bezzle, do you think that a PP-esque portfolio can withstand the unwinding stage? Does it follow that unwinding benefits high-quality long duration bonds? I mean, such an unwinding is deflationary, right? Or is cash potentially the big winner because of the optionality that it offers?
In PP theory, LTTs are supposed to provide that pop and they still basically do that. However, now it would take the Fed stepping in to artificially send rates lower and/or make them negative. No one in history has had to deal with what is going on now and certainly it wasn't HB's data set when he developed the PP.
Cash is always good for the exact reason you stated.
I've often wondered about this. I think others have too.
Question is, what country would he store his gold.I Shrugged wrote: ↑Fri Oct 15, 2021 8:58 amI've often wondered about this. I think others have too.
My best guess is that as long as the PP has not been broken, he wouldn't change it.