BTC in the PP

[Jack Jones]

Stocks: 25%
Bonds: 20%
Gold: 20%
Cash: 20%
Bitcoin: 15%

12.9% Annualized Return from 2021-01-01 to 2024-10-31 vs 6.9% benchmark (Vanguard Balanced Index). 27% draw down in 2022.

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... OT9MItlFm8

However, I don't expect Bitcoin's returns to keep pace with its history.

[Smith1776]

$80k per coin today! ATH!

[dualstow]

$80k per coin today! ATH!

Ok, getting a little envious (84K now) but only a little.

[I Shrugged]

I have a hard time fathoming who is making the bid at 84K.

[boglerdude]

Maybe Goldman and Morgan are trading it back and forth like mortgages in 08. When it pops, fed bailout. Blame Trump.

Why is ETH up twice as much as BTC over the last 5 years, priced in gold.

[ochotona]

I have a hard time fathoming who is making the bid at 84K.

I was a whole coiner at one time. {sigh} Bought at $10k.

It's a hard asset to hold, worse than gold or TLT.

[dualstow]

Bitcoin Flips Silver Again, Becomes Eighth Largest Asset By Market Cap
https://decrypt.co/291216/bitcoin-flips ... market-cap

[Jack Jones]

I have a hard time fathoming who is making the bid at 84K.

I was a whole coiner at one time. {sigh} Bought at $10k.

It's a hard asset to hold, worse than gold or TLT.

Ah, but did you really hold it? I haven't had much success holding paper bitcoin assets. Like gold, the real thing is harder to liquidate than an ETF.

[I Shrugged]

Maybe Goldman and Morgan are trading it back and forth like mortgages in 08. When it pops, fed bailout. Blame Trump.

That's funny because it's probably true!

[Smith1776]

We just briefly touched $90k today. Holy moly.

[I Shrugged]

We just briefly touched $90k today. Holy moly.

Yeah it’s nuts.

[dualstow]

I was a whole coiner at one time. {sigh} Bought at $10k.

It's a hard asset to hold, worse than gold or TLT.

Ah, but did you really hold it? I haven't had much success holding paper bitcoin assets. Like gold, the real thing is harder to liquidate than an ETF.

Is there even a real thing?

[ochotona]

Well it was at Coinbase. Too easy to sell it.

[Jack Jones]

I was a whole coiner at one time. {sigh} Bought at $10k.

It's a hard asset to hold, worse than gold or TLT.

Ah, but did you really hold it? I haven't had much success holding paper bitcoin assets. Like gold, the real thing is harder to liquidate than an ETF.

Is there even a real thing?

This is what the real thing looks like:

https://mempool.space/address/bc1qq7lhe ... atfs0j438z

Bitcoin, in an address, that you have the keys for (this one isn’t mine).

When you own Bitcoin in this way, you have the power to transact on the network.

[dualstow]

Ah. And “paper bitcoin” is an etf, right?
I still have most of what Marc de Mesel (sp?) gave me here on this forum. It’s in Coinbase now.
It didn’t feel real until I bought fractional gold with it. Now it does.

[Smith1776]

Holy shit

IMG_7282.png (1005.49 KiB) Viewed 2832 times

[Smith1776]

Now that it's finally the weekend, I felt like sharing some thoughts on why I basically went all-in on Bitcoin. This won't be super structured. More like a bit of a brain dump.

I guess the first point to address would be why Bitcoin instead of gold. The way I see it, Bitcoin is essentially just like gold, but better in several crucial ways. Bitcoin is like an engineered or synthetic gold, where the defects have been stripped away. 3 key thoughts:

1) True self-custody: with a memorized seed phrase, I can travel around the world with any arbitrary amount of money stored literally in my head with 100% stealth.
2) It's digital: unlike gold, Bitcoin can be sent electronically over a communications channel from New York to Tokyo with negligible time. Try that with gold.
3) Truly capped supply: We often think of gold as being anti-inflationary. Compared to fiat, it certainly is, but even the gold supply is being inflated by a couple percent per year. Putting it another way, gold has a much smaller leak as a "container" for economic value, but it's still there. Bitcoin is hermetically sealed.

Also, regarding the nature of my Bitcoin/MicroStrategy position, I honestly don't really see it as speculative. I actually am now seeing investment in Bitcoin as being defensive. From the perspective of maintaining and growing purchasing power for all but the shortest of time periods, I think it's literally the safest thing out there. It doesn't have a board of directors that issues more stock in a dilutive fashion. It doesn't have a central bank that prints more of it ad infinitum. It's just a container that stores economic energy without leaking any of it. And as adoption is likely to grow, it still appears to be an asymmetric bet.

I've had my view turned on its head. When it comes to Bitcoin, I only invest the money I can't afford to lose.

Tick tock, next block.

[dualstow]

Now that it's finally the weekend, I felt like sharing some thoughts on why I basically went all-in on Bitcoin.
../

Mind if I do a little devil's advocate (blame it on Randy Holden's 'fruit and icebergs'; that's what I'm listening to) or not in the mood?

[Smith1776]

Now that it's finally the weekend, I felt like sharing some thoughts on why I basically went all-in on Bitcoin.
../

Mind if I do a little devil's advocate (blame it on Randy Holden's 'fruit and icebergs'; that's what I'm listening to) or not in the mood?

i'm always interested to hear other people's viewpoints!

[dualstow]

I should reiterate that I love blockchain and the idea of bitcoin. And, as you mentioned, there’s something great about the way it contrasts with seemingly unlimited dollar printing.

Yes it’s more convenient than gold because it’s digital. When the hackers come calling for ransomware, they won’t ask for gold. (And when robbers put a gun to a homeowner’s head, they won’t ask where the bitcoin is).

It’s easier for me to think of gold as savings than as an investment. It has a timeless quality, so I could think of it as an investment in future generations, but … savings.
Bitcoin may really take hold as a kind of world currency, but it also feels like even more of a Greater Fool system than gold or anything else.

Credit cards are convenient and although you may carry a plastic rectangle around, they’re basically digital. You can travel around the world on credit cards and dollars (and many other currencies), and you can use them in most stores. Although you couldn’t use them to make a $5 purchase a few decades ago, now you can.

But you can’t buy a pizza or a cup of coffee with bitcoin in *most* places. So is it really that convenient?

As with gold or traveler’s cheques, you usually have to convert it into dollars first,unless you’re paying the salary of certain atheletes or buying a 3D printed item from PointedStick’s store, or a few other places. El Salvador, maybe.

And isn’t there a lot of friction? I may be out of date but there was a big fee when I used some bitcoin to buy gold. That’s decidedly inconvenient.

If bitcoin continues to go up vs the dollar, that’s great. It may as well be Nvidia shares. But if it doesn’t, it’s just a bunch of clever digital nothingness, isn’t it? It could turn out to be quite expensive.

Why should it go up? Because fiat money is inflating? I guess. Maybe? Because Trump is president and he seems to like bitcoin? Well, he’s only got four years. The next guy or woman might have other plans, like clamping down on bitcoin.

What could make bitcoin go down? Well, sometimes people talk about discovering vast amounts of gold on an asteroid and finding a way to get it to earth, making gold less valuable. Or, maybe gold could be synthesized one day. Until then, it won’t be replaced by another precious metal, or any other element.

However, what if something more clever than bitcoin is created? There are other systems, like ethereum, but what if something comes along that has mass appeal for whatever reason, and the governments and citizens of the world readily adopt it, leaving bitcoin behind. Maybe they resent bitcoin and its MIT-graduate early adopters/hoarders, and this new system presents a level playing ground. What happens to bitcoin then? Just something to think about.

It does seem like bitcoin is here to stay, or more so than 10 years ago or even 5 years ago. I hope you make money off of it. It just doesn’t seem like a foregone conclusion.

[yankees60]

I should reiterate that I love blockchain and the idea of bitcoin. And, as you mentioned, there’s something great about the way it contrasts with seemingly unlimited dollar printing.

Yes it’s more convenient than gold because it’s digital. When the hackers come calling for ransomware, they won’t ask for gold. (And when robbers put a gun to a homeowner’s head, they won’t ask where the bitcoin is).

It’s easier for me to think of gold as savings than as an investment. It has a timeless quality, so I could think of it as an investment in future generations, but … savings.
Bitcoin may really take hold as a kind of world currency, but it also feels like even more of a Greater Fool system than gold or anything else.

Credit cards are convenient and although you may carry a plastic rectangle around, they’re basically digital. You can travel around the world on credit cards and dollars (and many other currencies), and you can use them in most stores. Although you couldn’t use them to make a $5 purchase a few decades ago, now you can.

But you can’t buy a pizza or a cup of coffee with bitcoin in *most* places. So is it really that convenient?

As with gold or traveler’s cheques, you usually have to convert it into dollars first,unless you’re paying the salary of certain atheletes or buying a 3D printed item from PointedStick’s store, or a few other places. El Salvador, maybe.

And isn’t there a lot of friction? I may be out of date but there was a big fee when I used some bitcoin to buy gold. That’s decidedly inconvenient.

If bitcoin continues to go up vs the dollar, that’s great. It may as well be Nvidia shares. But if it doesn’t. it’s just a bunch of clever digital nothingness, isn’t it? It could turn out to be quite expensive.

Why should it go up? Because fiat money is inflating? I guess. Maybe? Because Trump is president and he seems to like bitcoin? Well, he’s only got four years. The next guy or woman might have other plans, like clamping down on bitcoin.

What could make bitcoin go down? Well, sometimes people talk about discovering vast amounts of gold on an asteroid and finding a way to get it to earth, making gold less valuable. Or, maybe gold could be synthesized one day. Until then, it won’t be replaced by another precious metal, or any other element.

However, what if something more clever than bitcoin is created? There are other systems, like ethereum, but what if something comes along that has mass appeal for whatever reason, and the governments and citizens of the world readily adopt it, leaving bitcoin behind. Maybe they resent bitcoin and its MIT-graduate early adopters/hoarders, and this new system presents a level playing ground. What happens to bitcoin then? Just something to think about.

It does seem like bitcoin is here to stay, or more so than 10 years ago or even 5 years ago. I hope you make money off of it. It just doesn’t seem like a foregone conclusion.

Excellent, Dualstow!!!

In the myriad of posts you've written in this forum, this is definitely a Hall of Famer Top Ten of All time of yours!

[dualstow]

Glad you appreciate it.
Just my 2 cents, in debased US currency

[Smith1776]

I should reiterate that I love blockchain and the idea of bitcoin. And, as you mentioned, there’s something great about the way it contrasts with seemingly unlimited dollar printing.
...

Thanks for the thoughts, dualstow. It's also nice to see some actual discussion on the forum. I'll share some thoughts.

I personally agree with Michael Saylor and Saifedean Ammous that Bitcoin isn't really meant to replace (or even compete with) currency in circulation for POS purchases per se. Even in a Bitcoin world, our Visa/Mastercard purchases will continue as normal.

Rather, Bitcoin would replace the "base layer" for final settlement transactions between institutions where currently the final settlement time can literally be weeks. ("Final settlement" meaning the point in which a transaction can't be reversed.) From this frame of reference, Bitcoin's 1 hour time for final settlement is lightning fast.

In this world, you'd have 2 sleeves of Bitcoin. You'd have some Bitcoin backed currency or Bitcoin in a lightning wallet for daily transactions. And then you'd have Bitcoin in cold storage for long-term savings that you can self-custody.

I see Bitcoin as essentially being the best of fiat and gold in a single entity. It can be sent electronically like fiat but is verifiably scarce like gold. It's the best form of capital I think we've ever encountered.

In the end though, no I don't know for certain what will happen. I'm definitely not confident (arrogant?) enough to say for sure that Bitcoin will succeed. There is definitely an element of being a leap of faith.

[dualstow]

I see. Thank you for the follow-up!

[Jack Jones]

Rather, Bitcoin would replace the "base layer" for final settlement transactions between institutions where currently the final settlement time can literally be weeks. ("Final settlement" meaning the point in which a transaction can't be reversed.) From this frame of reference, Bitcoin's 1 hour time for final settlement is lightning fast.

I’m familiar with this argument, but find it far fetched. The institutions in question benefit from the fact that they control the base layer. They went through great lengths to own the base layer and will not easily give it up. In fact, I believe Bitcoin has already been neutered by these parties.

Earlier Bitcoiners believed that it would be a bottom up revolution. If enough people used it for commerce, a network effect would take off and make it unstoppable. Current Bitcoiners hope to HODL until they can sell out to bankers to become rich. But why would these bankers want your Bitcoin when they already own the real money machine?