Gyroscopic Investing

Grathams latest interview with Financial Times. Many years of experience behind these opinions...



https://youtu.be/Y_yRgMgBis0

doodle wrote: ↑Fri Feb 26, 2021 4:35 pm
Grathams latest interview with Financial Times. Many years of experience behind these opinions...



https://youtu.be/Y_yRgMgBis0

You have sufficiently motivated me to pause a live 1979 Boston, MA Talking Heads show that I'm listening to to, instead, listen to the above.

Thanks

I watched carefully* .

He's got a good point when he says it's ludicrous to compare the stock market to the overpriced bond market. "Why not just compare it to bitcoin?"
Hmm.

*young lady makes an appearance at 7.21.

Listened to it once. Was going to listen to it again but then Celtics pregame show started. Will listen to it again tomorrow.

He is always full of insight and wisdom.

I will also listen to this tomorrow, at least once.

Why Grantham Says the Next Crash Will Rival 1929, 2000

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RYfmRTyl56w

Do not understand much of it. I mean I do not underestimate what he is saying, but also I cannot say its of incredible value. Seems I am not mature enough (in investing means) to see the gem here. The way those guys are talking sometimes gives me the impression they leave an escape door so after X months/years they can claim they were right (as they said 'anything can happen' in rather obfuscated way).
PS. Of course they do not live to pretend being right

Vil wrote: ↑Sat Feb 27, 2021 3:46 am they leave an escape door so after X months/years they can claim they were right (as they said 'anything can happen' in rather obfuscated way).

Sure, eventually the crash will happen and he'll look great. If Cortopassi hadn't looked it up, I wouldn't have known that Grantham made the same prediction 3 years ago. Until it does happen, there's plenty to be said.

dualstow wrote: ↑Sat Feb 27, 2021 8:38 am

Vil wrote: ↑Sat Feb 27, 2021 3:46 am they leave an escape door so after X months/years they can claim they were right (as they said 'anything can happen' in rather obfuscated way).

Sure, eventually the crash will happen and he'll look great. If Cortopassi hadn't looked it up, I wouldn't have known that Grantham make the same prediction 3 years ago. Until it does happen, there's plenty to be said.

Indeed, I haven't seen what Cortopassi shared or cited, but on 3rd Jan 2018, his executive summary is quite bold on the pending bubble burst:

On the other hand, as a historian of the great equity bubbles, I also recognize that we are currently showing signs of entering the
blow-off or melt-up phase of this very long bull market. The data on the high price of the market
is clean and factual. We can be as certain as we ever get in stock market analysis that the current
price is exceptionally high.

But OK, his stuff appears well said and quite reasonable... timing problems are just part of the business, I guess

Vil wrote: ↑Sat Feb 27, 2021 2:16 pm

dualstow wrote: ↑Sat Feb 27, 2021 8:38 am

Vil wrote: ↑Sat Feb 27, 2021 3:46 am they leave an escape door so after X months/years they can claim they were right (as they said 'anything can happen' in rather obfuscated way).

Sure, eventually the crash will happen and he'll look great. If Cortopassi hadn't looked it up, I wouldn't have known that Grantham make the same prediction 3 years ago. Until it does happen, there's plenty to be said.

Indeed, I haven't seen what Cortopassi shared or cited, but on 3rd Jan 2018, his executive summary is quite bold on the pending bubble burst:

On the other hand, as a historian of the great equity bubbles, I also recognize that we are currently showing signs of entering the
blow-off or melt-up phase of this very long bull market. The data on the high price of the market
is clean and factual. We can be as certain as we ever get in stock market analysis that the current
price is exceptionally high.

But OK, his stuff appears well said and quite reasonable... timing problems are just part of the business, I guess

He'd be the first to admit timing is the piece that is hardest to predict. As example he cites his similar bubble prediction on japan where it got to the point where the real estate sitting under the emperor's palace in tokyo became more valuable than the entirety of the state of california. Crazy can last a long time. I think his point is that valuations are overstretched and that the confluence of covid and political upheavel and unique monetary conditions are the reasons people are using to justify that "this time is different".

We all know bubbles pop. So if he can be off by years and years, and everyone is*, i’m not sure what purpose he’s serving except maybe to increase interest in GMO’s emerging value etf’s.

*The flip side of that is that Harry Browne is often praised for the timing of his gold call in ‘The Coming Devaluation’. He stated that he was lucky on the close timing, and that it could have gone into effect 10 years after his prediction.

New interview from Grantham

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JlEGU2ypr1Q

Ahhh Grantham again. No disrespect to anyone in this thread but I find it a little curious that he gets so much air time. Everybody can clearly see the markets are overvalued.

And their a million billionaires at this point so he just seems to be one of the pack. I guess the one thing is he has a charming accent, he’s rich, he is articulate so…let’s cover what he has to say because we need to fill this dead airtime.