Gyroscopic Investing

Surely a Biden win vs. a Trump win vs. complete chaos (martial law, riots etc.) will have an effect on investments.

Anyone want to discuss what they think the effects will be?

Personally I think Trump will stay in office. I am 100% it will be horribly chaotic if that happens. There could be a lot of arrests and investigations of political officials. If it's via martial law, I would think stocks crumble and gold surges. Treasuries, wow, VERY hard to say. I am sure the fed or treasury would be ordered to print and pay them, but Chinese treasuries could be voided if they are found to be involved in the election fraud.

I realize some people don't believe there was fraud. I'm just saying what I expect:

1. Trump stays in
2. it's chaotic with the media and dem leaders instigating riots
3. Stocks pummeled, Gold surges
4. Treasuries I have no blinking idea. Do they stay a safe haven? Does the government void some of them? Are interest payments suspended?
5. Cash is rough too. I think tax rev will plummet. Government spending could go down if lots of departments are suspended. It could surge for lots of reasons too. I think the government prints lots of money so gold does better than cash, but cash will at least hold it's own.

If Biden takes office:

1. Another round of even bigger lockdowns shutting down the economy.
2. fed printing kicks into overdrive
3. Stocks hold steady based on "stimulus", but PE's keep going up and dividends keep going down
4. Gold surges
5. protesting but no rioting as the Trump supporters have to go back to work
6. Not sure if Trump is arrested or leads a political movement apart from the republicans
7. Bonds stay at ultra low interest for years longer (high prices)
8. Cash is probably more risky than the others with inflation rising.

Correct Answer: How the hell do I know?

Guys, investments don't care about politics. Regardless who winds up in the White House Jan 20...

Stocks got likely another 1-2 years left of it's secular bull market. They likely will start their next secular bear market at some point in the next term.

Gold is likely to up. It's early on in a new secular bull market.

Bonds will likely mostly continue to go sideways, but there is a non-zero possibility for negative or increasing yields.

Cash will stay negative real yield.

It really doesn't matter who is in the White House.