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Seeking alpha looks at tlt
Posted: Sun Nov 22, 2020 3:50 pm
by mathjak107
Re: Seeking alpha looks at tlt
Posted: Mon Nov 23, 2020 2:22 pm
by Don
Add some TBT as a hedge in VP?
Re: Seeking alpha looks at tlt
Posted: Mon Nov 23, 2020 2:26 pm
by mathjak107
These reverse funds can be very risky as a buy and hold
Re: Seeking alpha looks at tlt
Posted: Tue Nov 24, 2020 6:45 am
by mathjak107
Re: Seeking alpha looks at tlt
Posted: Tue Nov 24, 2020 5:32 pm
by Kbg
Bonds are easy fellas...don't over think them.
Re: Seeking alpha looks at tlt
Posted: Tue Nov 24, 2020 5:41 pm
by buddtholomew
I’m out of TLT entirely at 160.xx
Personally feel as if I am sitting on a 3 legged stool although 1 of the legs is as thick as an OX (cash)
40/15/45 - Stocks/Bonds/Cash
Re: Seeking alpha looks at tlt
Posted: Tue Nov 24, 2020 5:50 pm
by mathjak107
Same totally out of Tlt
Re: Seeking alpha looks at tlt
Posted: Fri Dec 04, 2020 9:47 am
by buddtholomew
buddtholomew wrote: ↑Tue Nov 24, 2020 5:41 pm
I’m out of TLT entirely at 160.xx
Personally feel as if I am sitting on a 3 legged stool although 1 of the legs is as thick as an OX (cash)
40/15/45 - Stocks/Bonds/Cash
Yikes!
Watching for the rotation back into LTT’s in the near future.
Re: Seeking alpha looks at tlt
Posted: Mon Dec 21, 2020 9:38 am
by Kevin K.
Resurrecting this thread (or at least trying to) because this link that you kindly shared mathjak107 caused me to explore the rest of the "Better Buy & Hold" site. I find their approach intriguing in that they're using real-time interest rate data to tweak portfolios.
This post in which they "currentize" the returns for all 16 buy-and-hold portfolios on Portfolio Charts is especially interesting:
https://betterbuyandhold.com/buy-hold-b ... trategies/
Seems like for $50 a year this could be an interesting way to split the difference between a PP or GB and a variable portfolio. Thoughts?
Re: Seeking alpha looks at tlt
Posted: Mon Dec 21, 2020 12:07 pm
by ochotona
Kevin K. wrote: ↑Mon Dec 21, 2020 9:38 am
Resurrecting this thread (or at least trying to) because this link that you kindly shared mathjak107 caused me to explore the rest of the "Better Buy & Hold" site. I find their approach intriguing in that they're using real-time interest rate data to tweak portfolios.
This post in which they "currentize" the returns for all 16 buy-and-hold portfolios on Portfolio Charts is especially interesting:
https://betterbuyandhold.com/buy-hold-b ... trategies/
Seems like for $50 a year this could be an interesting way to split the difference between a PP or GB and a variable portfolio. Thoughts?
My thought is that I should monitor for a giant drawdown on the order of 19.1% for the HBPP then buy it.
Re: Seeking alpha looks at tlt
Posted: Mon Dec 21, 2020 1:27 pm
by jhogue
An interesting take on the future of LTTs in the Permanent Portfolio.
Given its prominent mention of portfoliocharts I hope that Tyler will respond to it.
Re: Seeking alpha looks at tlt
Posted: Mon Dec 21, 2020 4:22 pm
by buddtholomew
Missed the link. Thanks Kevin
Re: Seeking alpha looks at tlt
Posted: Mon Dec 21, 2020 4:35 pm
by Kevin K.
They do take those factors into account in this post:
https://betterbuyandhold.com/bond-etfs- ... ing-rates/
Using SHY, IEF and TLT:
"Practically speaking, rates can’t fall much further from here, but for the curious: What if rates fell to zero in the coming years? How would Treasury ETFs perform in this hypothetical scenario? Pretty good in the very short-term, but terrible in the long-term.
If rates fell to zero (linearly) over the course of the next 5-years, our three ETFs would return about 2.4%, 5.9% and 16.4% per year. That’s great. But then after that no coupon, nada. And any increase in rates would be devastating for returns."
As the linked post shows, the risk if rates rise is basically without a ceiling. I think their strategy makes a lot of sense.