Gyroscopic Investing

This harkens back to the Will you wear a mask thread.

I am pretty sure I will get the vaccine.

I Shrugged wrote: ↑Wed Nov 11, 2020 12:36 pm This harkens back to the Will you wear a mask thread.

I am pretty sure I will get the vaccine.

Not for a while -

If the FDA approves the vaccine, yes I will get is as soon as I can. The benefit of being able to travel and such without worry outweighs the risks of the vaccine to me. I also get the flu shot every year and have had no issues. Not worried, so long as the FDA and the scientific community as a whole put their stamp on it.

MangoMan wrote: ↑Wed Nov 11, 2020 4:12 pm

pmward wrote: ↑Wed Nov 11, 2020 4:00 pm If the FDA approves the vaccine, yes I will get is as soon as I can. The benefit of being able to travel and such without worry outweighs the risks of the vaccine to me. I also get the flu shot every year and have had no issues. Not worried, so long as the FDA and the scientific community as a whole put their stamp on it.

It would make me more comfortable if some politicians got it first...

Amen! Starting with Nancy, Joe, and Kamala.

I have never taken a Flu vaccine so I don't see any reason to start taking a Covid vaccine. My only exception would be if Biden or some governors put in restrictions that said you have to be vaccinated before coming in from out-of-state. Most of my relatives are in California and I could see that happening there so I may have to.

pmward wrote: ↑Wed Nov 11, 2020 4:00 pm The benefit of being able to travel and such without worry outweighs the risks of the vaccine to me.

Don't be so sure of that. The vaccine won't protect you 100%, and I think highly unlikely that travel & mask restrictions will be lifted for people who get the vaccine. I'm guessing also that the reported 90% efficacy rate is probably wildly optimistic and statistically not well supported. I'd much more readily believe a number like 70% in real life.

For myself - I'm not an antivaxxer, but I find the idea of rolling out a barely tested and poorly understood treatment to practically the whole population in a situation where COVID really doesn't pose a serious threat anymore really ticks me off. I fully expect my employer (university medical center) to make this mandatory. Best I can do is to delay as long as I can and watch for signs of adverse effects. If I do see evidence of that (e.g. the ill-fated swine flu vaccine), and it comes down to quit or take the vaccine, well, I'm not sure which way I'll go to be honest.

For lifting travel and mask restrictions for people who get the vaccine, how would authorities check vaccination status for each person? A national database? A special card or other physical document?

MangoMan wrote: ↑Wed Nov 11, 2020 6:17 pm

Tortoise wrote: ↑Wed Nov 11, 2020 6:09 pm For lifting travel and mask restrictions for people who get the vaccine, how would authorities check vaccination status for each person? A national database? A special card or other physical document?

Bill Gates microchip, silly.

I think I prefer the t-shirt method:

I imagine there won’t be a get out of jail free card. I think by early summer the vaccine will be widespread, cases dwindling to very low numbers, and they will declare victory.

For those of you who say you will take the vaccine: How many of you actually have any idea what this "vaccine" consists of? How many have any idea how it will work? (No fair researching it now.) Considering that a number of different products and technologies are being prepared for market (some of them having nothing to do with the traditional concept of "vaccine"), does your decision to accept "the vaccine" represent your consent to whatever technology happens to be mandated, or to be made available, first?

I Shrugged wrote: ↑Wed Nov 11, 2020 7:12 pm I imagine there won’t be a get out of jail free card. I think by early summer the vaccine will be widespread, cases dwindling to very low numbers, and they will declare victory.

This is exactly what I'm expecting too. Except, it will take a LONG time for the positive test results (remember it's that and NOT cases) to dwindle, and there's a point below which they will never dwindle. That's because a proportion of the tests will be false positives, and another fraction of the positive results will be due to past infection (e.g. months previously). We don't know what this is but it could easily be a couple of percent - and it is likely to grow over time. So it could be a very long lag between the start of distribution of the vaccine and Biden declaring victory. And, I expect the virus to resurface every flu season just like it's doing now, so the whole deal with lockdowns and mask mandates may recur each winter for years.

Pug, the answer to your question about employer vaccine mandate is yes, although it has not been tested in court. I guess they figure no one is going to court over the flu vaccine, but COVID may be a different story. We'll see.

I would be glad to donate my vaccination shot to a minority (I'm thinking disabled lesbian) in exchange for my veneration by society and the proper credentials to go about my life as if I had gotten it myself, instead of valiantly checking my privilege.

I have yet to get a regular flu shot in my life.

Last year my doctor convinced me to get one but they failed to flag me on my way out to get it then. I was never sufficiently motivated to make the five minute walk back there from my office to get one.

Same for this year so far. I can get one in the supermarket but not been sufficiently motivated to take the time to do so.

Probably will not get that one since I live such an isolated life these days.

As far as the virus shot goes? It depends where things stand both in my area and my life. If I'm going back to playing basketball and and softball and being in crowds for live music, definitely yes. If I'm still only off my property briefly once every three weeks...then probably no.

Vinny

yankees60 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 12, 2020 9:17 pm I have yet to get a regular flu shot in my life.

Last year my doctor convinced me to get one but they failed to flag me on my way out to get it then. I was never sufficiently motivated to make the five minute walk back there from my office to get one.

Same for this year so far. I can get one in the supermarket but not been sufficiently motivated to take the time to do so.

Probably will not get that one since I live such an isolated life these days.

As far as the virus shot goes? It depends where things stand both in my area and my life. If I'm going back to playing basketball and and softball and being in crowds for live music, definitely yes. If I'm still only off my property briefly once every three weeks...then probably no.

Vinny

Just remember in the days of the US testing nukes underground in Nevada, the radiation could be detected a day or two later on the east coast. I remember our High School science class standing outside the class room with a geiger counter to do experiements. Virus particles are a whole lot smaller than the alpha/beta particles (and perhaps a touch of gamma radiation) that drifted in on the wind from a couple thousand miles away. Your isolated life style might not be quite as isolated from a virus as you think.

I listened to Dr. Fauci on Face the Nation this morning. Looking ahead, he talked about the two vaccines that have made it through trials with 90%+ efficacy rates, with others hopefully on the way. The ultimate public health strategy of a vaccine is for wide enough adoption to allow for herd immunity. Thus far only 5% or so of the US population has contracted Covid, so we would have a really long way to go if getting herd immunity naturally was the goal without a vaccine.

So two issues arise, one being the logistics of vaccine distribution and administration. The other being acceptance.

I think the logistics would eventually be worked out one way or another. They're talking about cost to the recipient being minimal or zero.
But given the politicization and controversy over masks, I have no idea what the acceptance level might be for receiving the vaccine at all.

What is your position?

I haven’t decided yet. Nurses in my family and friends say they won’t unless mandated, in which case they could quit rather than be vaccinated; can take 10-12 years to understand long term consequences, e.g. Guillin-Barre paralysis, for new antivirals.

A thread with almost exactly the same title already exists:

https://www.gyroscopicinvesting.com/for ... hp?t=11504

Tortoise wrote: ↑Sun Nov 22, 2020 1:51 pm A thread with almost exactly the same title already exists:

https://www.gyroscopicinvesting.com/for ... hp?t=11504

Sorry, didn't realize that. I'll see if the moderator can delete this thread.

glennds wrote: ↑Sun Nov 22, 2020 1:58 pm

Tortoise wrote: ↑Sun Nov 22, 2020 1:51 pm A thread with almost exactly the same title already exists:

https://www.gyroscopicinvesting.com/for ... hp?t=11504

Sorry, didn't realize that. I'll see if the moderator can delete this thread.

merged...

I have a cautious distrust of generic solutions. Especially medical ones.

In general, I think the medical industry is well meaning and net positive - much like the religion industry. They both do a lot of good. Just not my cup of tea. Some stitches and staples now and then or maybe something to kill giardia.

But I don’t plan on being front of the line for the vaccine. I’d volunteer to be infected though. Better and more proven immunity. I’ve been trying my best and if I haven’t been exposed to it yet, then it’s damn near impossible to catch.

glennds wrote: ↑Sun Nov 22, 2020 1:07 pm Thus far only 5% or so of the US population has contracted Covid

Dr. Fauci really ought to read medical journals more often. Studies in Santa Clara, CA and New York State in April and May both showed that positive tests underestimated the number of people who have somehow gained antibody-mediated immunity by a factor of between 20 and 50. A similar observation was made based on the proportion of COVID cases on cruise or military ships. Allowing for easier availability of testing in recent months, you still should count on at least a factor of 10. That would put the proportion of people who are already immune at about half the US population.

Based on this I'd predicted that New York City already has some level of herd immunity. It's looking like that's the case. The rate of positive tests is around 3%, but they are mainly concentrated in clusters of close-knit groups (in Brooklyn, Staten Island, and Inwood). The positivity rate in the city schools and universities (including faculty/staff) is less than 0.5%. None of the micro-clusters or isolated cases have instigated anything like the widespread infections we saw in March and April.

So I would be very much against a universal, mandatory vaccination program using a vaccine that's not been completely tested. Can you imagine if some unforeseen side effect emerges, like what happened with thalidomide? Also, from an ethics perspective, forcing people to take what amounts to an experimental treatment violates every legal principle that exists. I have no problem as long as it's voluntary (and not mandatory), but Fauci's statement is pretty worrying.

Just spotted the bit about this being a duplicate thread - oh well! Too late!

I will get vaccinated first chance I get. No question about it for me. I don’t really get why someone wouldn’t want to be.

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 22, 2020 3:37 pm I will get vaccinated first chance I get. No question about it for me. I don’t really get why someone wouldn’t want to be.

Why would someone your age and health pick vaccination over exposure to the actual virus?

Do we even know if you are not infectious during the days following the vaccination?

Before heading overseas for some defense work, the DoD shot me up with everything in their toolkit. The one caveat was the Smallpox vaccine. They wouldn’t give it to anyone with young children at home because of the risk of transmission.

Maddy wrote: ↑Thu Nov 12, 2020 7:22 am For those of you who say you will take the vaccine: How many of you actually have any idea what this "vaccine" consists of? How many have any idea how it will work?
...

I don’t even know where the universe came from or who I am. I am going to take the vaccine like a good sheep and I’ll report back how it goes.