Gyroscopic Investing

tomfoolery wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 7:23 pm Excuse my ignorance, as a cis white heterosexual male, but why are liberals getting to emotional to vote Orangeman out?

I've heard a bunch of hypothetical things like abolishing Roe V Wade and getting rid of gay rights and getting rid of Obamacare, but none of those things happened in the last 4 years, so what makes them think it will happen in the next 4 years?

What exactly did Orangeman do that was so bad? What laws have been enacted by him to make liberals lives worse?

I'll ask you the same question I asked here many, many, many months ago.

Let's assume you created a highly successful business. It's the source of nearly your entire net worth. But now you as owner want to remove yourself from the day-to-day running of your business and want to hire someone to run it for you while you still reap the rewards of ownership and preserve the net worth that the value of your business represents.

Would you hire Trump to run your business?

All this policy discussion is, of course, important and interesting. But when we elect a president we are hiring someone to perform a job. And, that job is to run our country, to occupy the most important position in the universe (written by a U.S.-centric person).

I will not cite the reasons as I've done it several times in other posts but I find him to be completely unqualified to be president. Saying that is irrelevant to whether Biden is any more qualified or less qualified.

Trump flat out does not possess the necessary character or qualities to be president of our country. Nor the president of my company if I was the owner of that hypothetical company I earlier described.

I've many times stated that I find him to be wildly entertaining (which is why I'll watch repeatedly some of his rallies). But the role of the president is far more than Entertainer-In-Chief.

Vinny

yankees60 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 7:37 pm
I'll ask you the same question I asked here many, many, many months ago.

Let's assume you created a highly successful business. It's the source of nearly your entire net worth. But now you as owner want to remove yourself from the day-to-day running of your business and want to hire someone to run it for you while you still reap the rewards of ownership and preserve the net worth that the value of your business represents.

Would you hire Trump to run your business?

...
Vinny

Having actually started successful businesses, and hired CEOs to take over running them, I can say unequivocally that I would be a very lucky man if I could hire Trump to run one of my businesses.

Hard to explain unless you’ve actually started and run a business yourself.

Mark

Mark Leavy wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:19 pm

yankees60 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 7:37 pm
I'll ask you the same question I asked here many, many, many months ago.

Let's assume you created a highly successful business. It's the source of nearly your entire net worth. But now you as owner want to remove yourself from the day-to-day running of your business and want to hire someone to run it for you while you still reap the rewards of ownership and preserve the net worth that the value of your business represents.

Would you hire Trump to run your business?

...
Vinny

Having actually started successful businesses, and hired CEOs to take over running them, I can say unequivocally that I would be a very lucky man if I could hire Trump to run one of my businesses.

Hard to explain unless you’ve actually started and run a business yourself.

Mark

I've started my own accounting business but that was just a simple one person business. However, I've been intimately involved with many businesses and organization, and been a key person in several of them. I'd have NEVER wanted Trump involved in any of them in ANY capacity.

Vinny

yankees60 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 7:37 pm
Would you hire Trump to run your business?

I think he would be an excellent candidate if you were in the demolition business.

glennds wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 9:07 pm

yankees60 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 7:37 pm
Would you hire Trump to run your business?

I think he would be an excellent candidate if you were in the demolition business.

Thank you!!!! I have to memorize that one! Or, better yet. To put him in to sabotage a business nearly run it into the ground but not killing it so that you could swoop in. buy it for pennies on the dollar. get rid of him and, finally, bring it back to health!

Vinny

yankees60 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 9:13 pm

glennds wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 9:07 pm

yankees60 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 7:37 pm
Would you hire Trump to run your business?

I think he would be an excellent candidate if you were in the demolition business.

Thank you!!!! I have to memorize that one! Or, better yet. To put him in to sabotage a business nearly run it into the ground but not killing it so that you could swoop in. buy it for pennies on the dollar. get rid of him and, finally, bring it back to health!

Vinny

Honestly, I realize the most rabid Trump fans call any criticism of him TDS and "orange man bad". But in reality you have to concede that if there was a candidate that held most (all?) of the Trump political ideology but presented themselves more competently, successfully recruited, managed and retained a team, and maybe refrained from the temptation to crawl into the gutter with pettiness, that person would be much better for the ideological movement, and possibly unstoppable politically. Also not being a serial liar would be a big plus too.

For conservatives, Trump is the almost the man they wish he was. Like a great big diamond but with a whole bunch of massive cracks in it. And you find yourself desperately trying to ignore the cracks, but there they are, some of them gaping at you. And every time you think you've gotten past them, voila, another crack appears. Everyone involved whether a Trump voter, a political ally, a foreign leader, or cabinet member finds themselves in a self-negotiation weighing off the values and stability flaws against the things they hope he can deliver that would benefit them. In the end a decision must be made to overlook the flaws that in anyone else would be deal breakers.
What a curious character.

yankees60 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 9:13 pm

glennds wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 9:07 pm

yankees60 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 7:37 pm
Would you hire Trump to run your business?

I think he would be an excellent candidate if you were in the demolition business.

Thank you!!!! I have to memorize that one! Or, better yet. To put him in to sabotage a business nearly run it into the ground but not killing it so that you could swoop in. buy it for pennies on the dollar. get rid of him and, finally, bring it back to health!

Vinny

Interesting.

I gave you a real answer, from someone with real money on the line. Yet, you wrote it off like it was blather.
Fascinating.

When you hire a CEO, here is what you are looking for:

1) First and foremost, the CEO is really the Salesman in Chief. Sell ice cubes to Eskimos
2) Next, the CEO is the primary fund raiser. He has to be able to attract capital.
3) The world is an ugly place. For a real business, you need someone that can wade into the muck and cut deals with labor leaders, corrupt politicians, corrupt government procurement officers, front men, mobsters and petty regulatory agencies. If you think that isn't a real thing, you've never run a real business. No place for boy scouts.
4) The CEO has to understand how money works. On a visceral level. Debt, cash flow, interest, exchange rates, cost cutting, etc.
5) The CEO has to make fast gut decisions and then ruthlessly correct, segue and fire bad hires with no remorse.
6) The CEO has to rally the troops and encourage them when it looks like all is lost.

Trump is a rock star in all of these areas. Really. Try it for yourself and see how you compare.

Mark Leavy wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 9:51 pm

yankees60 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 9:13 pm

glennds wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 9:07 pm

yankees60 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 7:37 pm
Would you hire Trump to run your business?

I think he would be an excellent candidate if you were in the demolition business.

Thank you!!!! I have to memorize that one! Or, better yet. To put him in to sabotage a business nearly run it into the ground but not killing it so that you could swoop in. buy it for pennies on the dollar. get rid of him and, finally, bring it back to health!

Vinny

Interesting.

I gave you a real answer, from someone with real money on the line. Yet, you wrote it off like it was blather.
Fascinating.

Did you not see my initial DIRECT response to you? This was in response to what glennds wrote.

Vinny

yankees60 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 10:10 pm
Did you not see my initial DIRECT response to you? This was in response to what glennds wrote.

Vinny

I must have missed the reasons.

Mark Leavy wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 10:05 pm When you hire a CEO, here is what you are looking for:

1) First and foremost, the CEO is really the Salesman in Chief. Sell ice cubes to Eskimos
2) Next, the CEO is the primary fund raiser. He has to be able to attract capital.
3) The world is an ugly place. For a real business, you need someone that can wade into the muck and cut deals with labor leaders, corrupt politicians, corrupt government procurement officers, front men, mobsters and petty regulatory agencies. If you think that isn't a real thing, you've never run a real business. No place for boy scouts.
4) The CEO has to understand how money works. On a visceral level. Debt, cash flow, interest, exchange rates, cost cutting, etc.
5) The CEO has to make fast gut decisions and then ruthlessly correct, segue and fire bad hires with no remorse.
6) The CEO has to rally the troops and encourage them when it looks like all is lost.

Trump is a rock star in all of these areas. Really. Try it for yourself and see how you compare.

I don't dispute your first six items for someone who is after the most money in certain environments and who has no conscience. However, I do dispute the first sentence of your last paragraph. How does one such individual end up with a billion $$$$ tax write-off?

When I worked with a highly successful business owner $$$$-wise and he was complaining about how much in taxes he was paying...I told him that that was a good thing. He should want to pay more and more in taxes because that would mean his after-tax income was going up and up and up. He understood it right away.

Vinny

yankees60 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 10:15 pm However, I do dispute the first sentence of your last paragraph. How does one such individual end up with a billion $$$$ tax write-off?

I have no idea what your question is here.
Your accountants tell you what your write-off is and you sign off on it. It's not any more complicated than that.

Edit: Okay, I reread your comment and I think you are assuming that a write-off implies bad profit management. At least that is what I think you are saying. In that case, I assume you don't handle much real-estate business. I'm guessing though, so feel free to correct me.

yankees60 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 10:15 pm When I worked with a highly successful business owner $$$$-wise and he was complaining about how much in taxes he was paying...I told him that that was a good thing. He should want to pay more and more in taxes because that would mean his after-tax income was going up and up and up. He understood it right away.

Vinny

Dude should have fired you right away and gone with a serious tax firm.
I use Geffen Mesher out of Portland.

Mark Leavy wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 10:05 pm When you hire a CEO, here is what you are looking for:

1) First and foremost, the CEO is really the Salesman in Chief. Sell ice cubes to Eskimos
2) Next, the CEO is the primary fund raiser. He has to be able to attract capital.
3) The world is an ugly place. For a real business, you need someone that can wade into the muck and cut deals with labor leaders, corrupt politicians, corrupt government procurement officers, front men, mobsters and petty regulatory agencies. If you think that isn't a real thing, you've never run a real business. No place for boy scouts.
4) The CEO has to understand how money works. On a visceral level. Debt, cash flow, interest, exchange rates, cost cutting, etc.
5) The CEO has to make fast gut decisions and then ruthlessly correct, segue and fire bad hires with no remorse.
6) The CEO has to rally the troops and encourage them when it looks like all is lost.

Trump is a rock star in all of these areas. Really. Try it for yourself and see how you compare.

First off, I don't dispute your success as an entrepreneur and business person one bit.

With regard to Trump being a rock star CEO, I would like to recommend a book called White House, Inc. by Dan Alexander. Alexander works for Forbes and I think he leads the team that produces the Forbes 400 compilation. This involves their own financial verification (a substantial undertaking because they don't simply accept people's self reported net worth). As such his book is more forensic accounting than political analysis and it is very revealing regarding where Trump has been successful as a business person and where he has not, and in quantifiable financial terms, not opinion.
This book can be criticized as dry to the layperson, but for a financially minded business person like you, it may as well be an action novel. Admittedly a good part of it is dissection of the immense amount of conflict of interest financial dealings post election and emoluments violations. But the background summary of Trump's pre-presidency business career is my primary focus in response to your post.

If you read this book, and assuming you do not dismiss it as fake news, it would be very interesting to hear whether your admiration for Trump as a rock star CEO is dimmed in any way.

IMO the most compelling (and ironic) item on your list is #1. The question might be who are the Eskimos and exactly what ice cubes have they been sold?

glennds wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:34 pm ...

With regard to Trump being a rock star CEO, I would like to recommend a book called White House, Inc. by Dan Alexander. Alexander works for Forbes and I think he leads the team that produces the Forbes 400 compilation. This involves their own financial verification (a substantial undertaking because they don't simply accept people's self reported net worth). As such his book is more forensic accounting than political analysis and it is very revealing regarding where Trump has been successful as a business person and where he has not, and in quantifiable financial terms, not opinion.
This book can be criticized as dry to the layperson, but for a financially minded business person like you, it may as well be an action novel. Admittedly a good part of it is dissection of the immense amount of conflict of interest financial dealings post election and emoluments violations. But the background summary of Trump's pre-presidency business career is my primary focus in response to your post.

If you read this book, and assuming you do not dismiss it as fake news, it would be very interesting to hear whether your admiration for Trump as a rock star CEO is dimmed in any way.

IMO the most compelling (and ironic) item on your list is #1. The question might be who are the Eskimos and exactly what ice cubes have they been sold?

Looks good. I just bought it.
Mark

Mark Leavy wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 12:05 am

glennds wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:34 pm ...

With regard to Trump being a rock star CEO, I would like to recommend a book called White House, Inc. by Dan Alexander. Alexander works for Forbes and I think he leads the team that produces the Forbes 400 compilation. This involves their own financial verification (a substantial undertaking because they don't simply accept people's self reported net worth). As such his book is more forensic accounting than political analysis and it is very revealing regarding where Trump has been successful as a business person and where he has not, and in quantifiable financial terms, not opinion.
This book can be criticized as dry to the layperson, but for a financially minded business person like you, it may as well be an action novel. Admittedly a good part of it is dissection of the immense amount of conflict of interest financial dealings post election and emoluments violations. But the background summary of Trump's pre-presidency business career is my primary focus in response to your post.

If you read this book, and assuming you do not dismiss it as fake news, it would be very interesting to hear whether your admiration for Trump as a rock star CEO is dimmed in any way.

IMO the most compelling (and ironic) item on your list is #1. The question might be who are the Eskimos and exactly what ice cubes have they been sold?

Looks good. I just bought it.
Mark

So cool! Dying to know what you think once you're done.

Okay. I just finished it. I didn't read the last 100 pages of references.

I would say that I knew about 75% of the allegations going in. And nothing too surprising for the rest. I have a lot of history working with the middle east. I don't disagree with any of the factual material. The author interspersed a lot opinion and speculation into the narrative - which was the point of the book. I don't know the author but his commentary felt like a disgruntled paycheck worker. Not somebody that has ever had to make a payroll.

Of the facts in the book (not the author's opinions) what did you find most disqualifying? From a legal standpoint, not your personal ethos.

Mark Leavy wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 12:27 am Okay. I just finished it. I didn't read the last 100 pages of references.

I would say that I knew about 75% of the allegations going in. And nothing too surprising for the rest. I have a lot of history working with the middle east. I don't disagree with any of the factual material. The author interspersed a lot opinion and speculation into the narrative - which was the point of the book. I don't know the author but his commentary felt like a disgruntled paycheck worker. Not somebody that has ever had to make a payroll.

Of the facts in the book (not the author's opinions) what did you find most disqualifying? From a legal standpoint, not your personal ethos.

Did you just read a 320 page book minus 100 pages of references in 20 minutes?
Holy Evelyn Wood, Batman.

Kbg wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 7:00 am So let me attack the premise that good business person = great or even good President?

Go, name just one.

Throw out farm owning businessmen, and I’ll bet you can’t name one.

First Entrepreneur: How George Washington Built His -- and the Nation's -- Prosperity

The United States was conceived in business, founded on business, and operated as a business -- all because of the entrepreneurial mind of the greatest American businessman of any generation: George Washington.

Using Washington's extensive but often overlooked financial papers, Edward G. Lengel chronicles the fascinating and inspiring story of how this self-educated man built the Mount Vernon estate into a vast multilayered enterprise and prudently managed meager resources to win the war of independence. Later, as president, he helped establish the national economy on a solid footing and favorably positioned the nation for the Industrial Revolution. Washington's steadfast commitment to the core economic principles of probity, transparency, careful management, and calculated boldness are timeless lessons that should inspire and instruct investors even today.

First Entrepreneur will transform how ordinary Americans think about George Washington and how his success in commercial enterprise influenced and guided the emerging nation.

Now say what? You mean the Mount Vernon plantation where his employees were slaves? That's some business!!!

I'll throw in...I agree with much of Trump's policy. However, Trump is a career long conman and slimeball. He is a sexual predator, pathological liar, and whiny narcissist. He would have been wealthier if he had just invested Daddy's money in the stock market...the opportunity cost of running his 'real estate empire' has perhaps been billions...in other words he's a failure. I could go on and on but that's enough to disqualify him for me.

For anyone with a Wall Street Journal subscription:

Take a look at today's articles. I'm astounded and unfortunately it's too little too late, but the paper seems to have made an abrupt 180 degree turn in the past couple of days. Suddenly they woke up and realized that an unchecked Biden/Harris presidency would be a disaster for the economy, and that Trump's personality issues are trivial in comparison.

There are a flood of articles asking highly relevant and insightful questions such as: What exactly is Biden promising to do about COVID that's any different from what Trump is already doing, and that would actually make an impact? He has said nothing constructive except that he intends to implement a universal mask mandate and vaguely described new lockdowns. This of course will have no measurable effect on numbers or outcomes.

There are many other such articles. Damn them for holding this back until now. This is the sort of thing I had expected of WSJ, and I was getting ready to cancel my subscription due to the long dry spell with nothing but weenie articles echoing the NYT/WaPo party line. I mean, I sure don't need to be paying $20/month to read stuff I can find elsewhere for free. I wonder if other people were cancelling for the same reason, and that's what made them wake up.

doodle wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 9:02 am He would have been wealthier if he had just invested Daddy's money in the stock market...the opportunity cost of running his 'real estate empire' has perhaps been billions...in other words he's a failure. I could go on and on but that's enough to disqualify him for me.

What about the properties he's developed, the people he's employed, and the customers his businesses have served? Are they worth nothing?

Are you saying that the almighty dollar is all that really matters? Unless I'm mistaken, that doesn't jive with other posts you've made here.

sophie wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 9:18 am For anyone with a Wall Street Journal subscription:

Were newspaper subscriptions always this expensive? I'd been doing the $1/mo offers for a while, but I just read so few WSJ articles that even that isn't really worth it. If they had some kind of pay as you go thing, where you could pay $1/article I'd do it. The regular pricing options they have are absurd.

Mark Leavy wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 10:19 pm

yankees60 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 10:15 pm However, I do dispute the first sentence of your last paragraph. How does one such individual end up with a billion $$$$ tax write-off?

I have no idea what your question is here.
Your accountants tell you what your write-off is and you sign off on it. It's not any more complicated than that.

Edit: Okay, I reread your comment and I think you are assuming that a write-off implies bad profit management. At least that is what I think you are saying. In that case, I assume you don't handle much real-estate business. I'm guessing though, so feel free to correct me.

Bottom line....no matter what type of business you are in....you want to be paying tons and tons of taxes because that means you have a HUGE after-tax income.

Vinny