Gyroscopic Investing

Hmmm, do I come here, or Zero Hedge for my latest dose of Trump is awesome? Such a tough decision.

Techno, you do realize that your news sources are just as dishonest as the mainstream media you lambast, right?

doodle wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 1:27 pm Techno, you do realize that your news sources are just as dishonest as the mainstream media you lambast, right?

Perhaps, even MORE biased?

Vinny

I’ve seriously wondered if techno is an automated Russian trollbot on many occasions.

Kbg wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 8:10 pm I’ve seriously wondered if techno is an automated Russian trollbot on many occasions.

Hah!

https://www.amazon.com/Russian-Nazi-Tro ... 1732583501

The cover SAYS quality, lol.

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 9:04 pm

Kbg wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 8:10 pm I’ve seriously wondered if techno is an automated Russian trollbot on many occasions.

Hah!

https://www.amazon.com/Russian-Nazi-Tro ... 1732583501

My cover is blown!

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 24, 2020 7:28 am

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 9:04 pm

Kbg wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 8:10 pm I’ve seriously wondered if techno is an automated Russian trollbot on many occasions.

Hah!

https://www.amazon.com/Russian-Nazi-Tro ... 1732583501

My cover is blown!

Nice gif comrade. :-)

Where's the source for that 46% approval rating among blacks? I couldn't find it, not even on the Rasmussen website.

It looks like the worst of the "BLM" crisis has blown over and is already almost forgotten but I still find that number hard to swallow. However - even if the true number is 30% and that the same 30% votes for Trump, that would be a historic win for the Republican party and it could even decide the race.

WiseOne wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 9:24 am Where's the source for that 46% approval rating among blacks? I couldn't find it, not even on the Rasmussen website.

It looks like the worst of the "BLM" crisis has blown over and is already almost forgotten but I still find that number hard to swallow. However - even if the true number is 30% and that the same 30% votes for Trump, that would be a historic win for the Republican party and it could even decide the race.

I saw it on Breitbart. It's talking about approval rating, not whether blacks will be actually voting for Trump....

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020 ... 46-debate/

WiseOne wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 9:24 am Where's the source for that 46% approval rating among blacks? I couldn't find it, not even on the Rasmussen website.

Rasmussen tweeted it on Oct 23:
https://twitter.com/Rasmussen_Poll/stat ... 50470?s=20

Tortoise wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 2:40 pm

WiseOne wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 9:24 am Where's the source for that 46% approval rating among blacks? I couldn't find it, not even on the Rasmussen website.

Rasmussen tweeted it on Oct 23:
https://twitter.com/Rasmussen_Poll/stat ... 50470?s=20

What could possibly explain the three day increases of 7%, 6%, 9%. Going from a starting point of 24% (Tuesday, 10/20/20) to nearly doubling to 46% (Friday, 10/23/20) over the space of just THREE days?

Vinny

A possible answer to my question?

Vinny


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rasmussen_Reports

Criticism
FiveThirtyEight
In 2010, Silver wrote an article entitled "Is Rasmussen Reports biased?" in which he mostly defended Rasmussen from allegations of bias.[89] However, later in the year, Rasmussen's polling results diverged notably from those of other mainstream pollsters, which Silver labeled a "house effect."[90] He went on to explore other factors that may have explained the effect, such as the use of a likely voter model,[91] and claimed that Rasmussen conducted its polls in a way that excluded the majority of the population from answering.[92]

After the 2010 midterm elections, Silver concluded that Rasmussen's polls were the least accurate of the major pollsters in 2010, having an average error of 5.8 points and a pro-Republican bias of 3.9 points according to Silver's model.[79] FiveThirtyEight currently rates Rasmussen Reports with a D+ grade and notes a simple average error of 9.3 percent across 657 polls analyzed.[93]

Bias in questions
Jonathan Chait of the New Republic said that Rasmussen is perceived in the "conservative world" as "the gold standard"[94] and suggested the polling company asks the questions specifically to show public support for the conservative position. He cited an example[95] in which Rasmussen asked "Should the government set limits on how much salt Americans can eat?" when the issue was actually whether to limit the amount of salt only in pre-processed food.

Other
The Center for Public Integrity listed "Scott Rasmussen Inc" as a paid consultant for the 2004 George W. Bush campaign.[96] The Washington Post reported that the 2004 Bush re-election campaign had used a feature on the Rasmussen Reports website that allowed customers to program their own polls, and that Rasmussen asserted that he had not written any of the questions nor assisted Republicans.[97]

In 2009 Time magazine described Rasmussen Reports as a "conservative-leaning polling group."[98] John Zogby said in 2010 that Scott Rasmussen had a "conservative constituency."[99] In 2012 The Washington Post called Rasmussen a "polarizing pollster."[100]

Rasmussen has received criticism over the wording in its polls.[101][102] Asking a polling question with different wording can affect the results of the poll;[103] the commentators in question allege that the questions Rasmussen ask in polls are skewed in order to favor a specific response. For instance, when Rasmussen polled whether Republican voters thought Rush Limbaugh was the leader of their party, the specific question they asked was: "Agree or Disagree: 'Rush Limbaugh is the leader of the Republican Party—he says jump and they say how high.'"[102]

Talking Points Memo has questioned the methodology of Rasmussen's Presidential Approval Index, which takes into account only those who "strongly" approve or disapprove of the President's job performance. TPM noted that this inherently skews negative, and reported that multiple polling experts were critical of the concept.[54] A New York Times article claims Rasmussen Reports research has a "record of relying on dubious sampling and weighting techniques."[104] Rasmussen has also been criticized for only polling Likely Voters which, according to Politico, "potentially weeds out younger and minority voters".[105]

A 2017 article by Chris Cillizza for CNN raised doubts about Rasmussen's accuracy, drawing attention specifically to potential sampling biases such as the exclusion of calls to cell phones (which, Cillizza argued, tended to exclude younger voters), and also more generally to a lack of methodological disclosure. Cillizza did, however, note in the same piece that Rasmussen was one of the more accurate polling organizations during the 2016 United States presidential election.[106]

A December 2018 article by political writer and analyst Harry Enten called Rasmussen the least accurate pollster in the 2018 midterm elections after stating Rasmussen had projected the Republicans to come ahead nationally by one point, while at the time Democrats were actually winning the national House vote by 8.6 points—an error of nearly 10 points.[107]

The Associated Press has also addressed Rasmussen's methodology. In 2018, AP journalists noted that Rasmussen's telephone methodology systematically omits adults, many of them young people, without cell phones. The AP also noted that Rasmussen does not provide details regarding its online-panel methodology.[108]

In an article for The Hill titled "Rasmussen Research has a pro-GOP bias," panelist discussed Rasmussen's practice of adjusting results by party identification. In addition to providing professional criticism from Ipsos, the article cited methodological concerns from Frank Newport of Gallup.[2]

yankees60 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 2:45 pm

Tortoise wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 2:40 pm

WiseOne wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 9:24 am Where's the source for that 46% approval rating among blacks? I couldn't find it, not even on the Rasmussen website.

Rasmussen tweeted it on Oct 23:
https://twitter.com/Rasmussen_Poll/stat ... 50470?s=20

What could possibly explain the three day increases of 7%, 6%, 9%. Going from a starting point of 24% (Tuesday, 10/20/20) to nearly doubling to 46% (Friday, 10/23/20) over the space of just THREE days?

Vinny

Perhaps they finally heard what he has done for minorities: HBCU funding, enterprise zones, prison reform, criminal justice reform, higher wages, lower unemployment before the plague.

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 26, 2020 12:18 am

yankees60 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 2:45 pm

Tortoise wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 2:40 pm

WiseOne wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 9:24 am Where's the source for that 46% approval rating among blacks? I couldn't find it, not even on the Rasmussen website.

Rasmussen tweeted it on Oct 23:
https://twitter.com/Rasmussen_Poll/stat ... 50470?s=20

What could possibly explain the three day increases of 7%, 6%, 9%. Going from a starting point of 24% (Tuesday, 10/20/20) to nearly doubling to 46% (Friday, 10/23/20) over the space of just THREE days?

Vinny

Perhaps they finally heard what he has done for minorities: HBCU funding, enterprise zones, prison reform, criminal justice reform, higher wages, lower unemployment before the plague.

By what means did they finally hear to explain this incredible change over just three days?

Any facts or logic to explain this?

Vinny

yankees60 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 26, 2020 8:54 am

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 26, 2020 12:18 am

yankees60 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 2:45 pm

Tortoise wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 2:40 pm

WiseOne wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 9:24 am Where's the source for that 46% approval rating among blacks? I couldn't find it, not even on the Rasmussen website.

Rasmussen tweeted it on Oct 23:
https://twitter.com/Rasmussen_Poll/stat ... 50470?s=20

What could possibly explain the three day increases of 7%, 6%, 9%. Going from a starting point of 24% (Tuesday, 10/20/20) to nearly doubling to 46% (Friday, 10/23/20) over the space of just THREE days?

Vinny

Perhaps they finally heard what he has done for minorities: HBCU funding, enterprise zones, prison reform, criminal justice reform, higher wages, lower unemployment before the plague.

By what means did they finally hear to explain this incredible change over just three days?

Any facts or logic to explain this?

Vinny

I don't have any inside information. Obviously the debate would have helped, and maybe the lead-up to the debate got people looking at his actual record.

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 26, 2020 9:33 am

yankees60 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 26, 2020 8:54 am

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 26, 2020 12:18 am

yankees60 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 2:45 pm

Tortoise wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 2:40 pm

WiseOne wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 9:24 am Where's the source for that 46% approval rating among blacks? I couldn't find it, not even on the Rasmussen website.

Rasmussen tweeted it on Oct 23:
https://twitter.com/Rasmussen_Poll/stat ... 50470?s=20

What could possibly explain the three day increases of 7%, 6%, 9%. Going from a starting point of 24% (Tuesday, 10/20/20) to nearly doubling to 46% (Friday, 10/23/20) over the space of just THREE days?

Vinny

Perhaps they finally heard what he has done for minorities: HBCU funding, enterprise zones, prison reform, criminal justice reform, higher wages, lower unemployment before the plague.

By what means did they finally hear to explain this incredible change over just three days?

Any facts or logic to explain this?

Vinny

I don't have any inside information. Obviously the debate would have helped, and maybe the lead-up to the debate got people looking at his actual record.

To keep an eye on this, has anyone found access to what the daily numbers prior to last week? And, I assume we should be able to see what the daily numbers are starting with today's and every day until the election?

Vinny

This might give some insight

https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/poli ... s-as-crazy

Regarding Rasmussen's reported sudden huge spike in black approval of Trump over just a few days last week, my guess is that it was initiated by a couple of news stories last week involving black celebrities, then fueled by the final presidential debate, and finally capped off by a comment on CNN by Van Jones:

• Oct 15: It was reported that Ice Cube has been working with the Trump campaign on behalf of the black community since the Biden campaign hadn't responded to him
• Oct 19: 50 Cent publicly supported Trump because he dislikes Biden's proposed tax rates even more than he dislikes Trump
• Oct 22: The second and final presidential debate was held, in which Trump made the case for why his policies and economy have been very good for the black community
• Oct 23: CNN commentator Van Jones said in a panel discussion that Trump "doesn't get enough credit" for the "good stuff he has done for the black community"

Tortoise wrote: ↑Mon Oct 26, 2020 2:08 pm Regarding Rasmussen's reported sudden huge spike in black approval of Trump over just a few days last week, my guess is that it was initiated by a couple of news stories last week involving black celebrities, then fueled by the final presidential debate, and finally capped off by a comment on CNN by Van Jones:

• Oct 15: It was reported that Ice Cube has been working with the Trump campaign on behalf of the black community since the Biden campaign hadn't responded to him
• Oct 19: 50 Cent publicly supported Trump because he dislikes Biden's proposed tax rates even more than he dislikes Trump
• Oct 22: The second and final presidential debate was held, in which Trump made the case for why his policies and economy have been very good for the black community
• Oct 23: CNN commentator Van Jones said in a panel discussion that Trump "doesn't get enough credit" for the "good stuff he has done for the black community"

Maybe. Or, maybe not.

Each of those stories could be the same "reasons" as the "reasons" financial commentators use for explaining why the markets were up or down that day. Pure fabrication since the millions involved in the market are all independently making their decisions.

Has anyone yet discovered where we can find the past results of this particular poll and where we can see until Election Day what day-by-day results are starting today?

Vinny

yankees60 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 26, 2020 3:04 pm Has anyone yet discovered where we can find the past results of this particular poll and where we can see until Election Day what day-by-day results are starting today?

I dug around a bit on Rasmussen's web site. Although they do post the daily history of Trump's overall approval, I can't seem to find similar daily histories for specific demographic groups. According to the following statement at the bottom of this page, it appears that that information is provided, but only to "Platinum Members":

Some information, including the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll and commentaries are available for free to the general public. Subscriptions are available for $4.95 a month or 34.95 a year that provide subscribers with exclusive access to more than 20 stories per week on upcoming elections, consumer confidence, and issues that affect us all. For those who are really into the numbers, Platinum Members can review demographic crosstabs and a full history of our data.

Tortoise wrote: ↑Mon Oct 26, 2020 3:50 pm

yankees60 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 26, 2020 3:04 pm Has anyone yet discovered where we can find the past results of this particular poll and where we can see until Election Day what day-by-day results are starting today?

I dug around a bit on Rasmussen's web site. Although they do post the daily history of Trump's overall approval, I can't seem to find similar daily histories for specific demographic groups. According to the following statement at the bottom of this page, it appears that that information is provided, but only to "Platinum Members":

Some information, including the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll and commentaries are available for free to the general public. Subscriptions are available for $4.95 a month or 34.95 a year that provide subscribers with exclusive access to more than 20 stories per week on upcoming elections, consumer confidence, and issues that affect us all. For those who are really into the numbers, Platinum Members can review demographic crosstabs and a full history of our data.

Thanks for that. Just retweeted to them the following:

Vinny

At that rate it will be over 100% approval by election!

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Mon Oct 26, 2020 5:07 pm
At that rate it will be over 100% approval by election!

Can it get to the proverbial "110%"???!!!

Vinny

Simonjester wrote:
Only if they were voting Democrat..

If Joe is right that Trump voters "ain't black," then at this rate there might not be any black people left in the U.S. by the end of the week!