Does Voter Enthusiasm Matter?
Posted: Mon Oct 05, 2020 4:37 pm
As some of you already know, I live in coastal California. The past two weekends, I visited two small beach towns nearby. The first weekend, I saw a caravan of about 10 cars driving down the main drag, waving huge Trump flags and American flags while loudly cheering and honking.
The second weekend in the other town, I saw a similar Trump caravan, except that time it was even bigger -- probably at least 20 cars.
Both times, I expected most onlookers to give them the middle finger since this is a deep blue state, but surprisingly the vast majority of them smiled, waved, and honked back. There was only one onlooker who seemed to react negatively: She shouted at the caravan, "He's a rapist and a pedophile!"
Another anecdotal observation is that almost nobody in my neighborhood has political signs in their front yards. I've seen one with a Trump sign and several with Black Lives Matter signs, but zero Biden signs. I assume very few people here are willing to put a Trump sign in their yard because of the risk of vandalism or worse, but Biden signs would be completely safe. So it seems quite telling to me that I don't see Biden signs anywhere.
Maybe I just happen to live in a more conservative pocket of this deep blue state, but the Trump caravans I saw got me thinking. If enthusiasm for Trump is so high even here in California -- the leftist stronghold of the U.S. -- does that give us any meaningful clues about the election result we're likely to see in November?
The second weekend in the other town, I saw a similar Trump caravan, except that time it was even bigger -- probably at least 20 cars.
Both times, I expected most onlookers to give them the middle finger since this is a deep blue state, but surprisingly the vast majority of them smiled, waved, and honked back. There was only one onlooker who seemed to react negatively: She shouted at the caravan, "He's a rapist and a pedophile!"
Another anecdotal observation is that almost nobody in my neighborhood has political signs in their front yards. I've seen one with a Trump sign and several with Black Lives Matter signs, but zero Biden signs. I assume very few people here are willing to put a Trump sign in their yard because of the risk of vandalism or worse, but Biden signs would be completely safe. So it seems quite telling to me that I don't see Biden signs anywhere.
Maybe I just happen to live in a more conservative pocket of this deep blue state, but the Trump caravans I saw got me thinking. If enthusiasm for Trump is so high even here in California -- the leftist stronghold of the U.S. -- does that give us any meaningful clues about the election result we're likely to see in November?