Gyroscopic Investing

Kevin K. wrote: ↑Sat Jul 25, 2020 3:41 pm Not directly PP related but he always has some great insights. This link is to the transcript but you can easily find the podcast if you prefer.

[url][https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/108/url]

mathjak107 wrote: ↑Sat Jul 25, 2020 4:12 pm I think out of all the respected financial thinkers I like Bernstein the least ...I find I have not only no use for most of his stuff but he changes his thinking like I change socks.

I couldn’t access it either

Kevin K. wrote: ↑Sat Jul 25, 2020 5:12 pm Weird about the link, which I couldn't make work from here either (I learned about the interview on Bogleheads).

https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/108

is correct - or just Google Rational Reminder podcast.

Kevin

yankees60 wrote: ↑Sat Jul 25, 2020 5:04 pm

mathjak107 wrote: ↑Sat Jul 25, 2020 4:12 pm I think out of all the respected financial thinkers I like Bernstein the least ...I find I have not only no use for most of his stuff but he changes his thinking like I change socks.

I couldn’t access it either

I don't think I've ever detected him changing his thinking. Could you elaborate?

Thanks

Vinny

mathjak107 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 26, 2020 3:26 am

yankees60 wrote: ↑Sat Jul 25, 2020 5:04 pm

mathjak107 wrote: ↑Sat Jul 25, 2020 4:12 pm I think out of all the respected financial thinkers I like Bernstein the least ...I find I have not only no use for most of his stuff but he changes his thinking like I change socks.

I couldn’t access it either

I don't think I've ever detected him changing his thinking. Could you elaborate?

Thanks

Vinny

he had different investment idea and views in his early books ...then he came up with the LMP idea and suddenly no one should own stocks except with excess money . his portfolio ideas are always changing ....

pp4me wrote: ↑Sun Jul 26, 2020 12:00 pm Bernstein lost me with his TIPS recommendation in "Why keep playing the game when you've already won".

yankees60 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 26, 2020 12:08 pm

pp4me wrote: ↑Sun Jul 26, 2020 12:00 pm Bernstein lost me with his TIPS recommendation in "Why keep playing the game when you've already won".

That made a major impression on me when I first read it. 2011? 2013?

His overall point is still excellent. Perhaps TIPS are not the best recommendation. But, perhaps, they still are a good one.

Vinny

pp4me wrote: ↑Sun Jul 26, 2020 1:06 pm

yankees60 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 26, 2020 12:08 pm

pp4me wrote: ↑Sun Jul 26, 2020 12:00 pm Bernstein lost me with his TIPS recommendation in "Why keep playing the game when you've already won".

That made a major impression on me when I first read it. 2011? 2013?

His overall point is still excellent. Perhaps TIPS are not the best recommendation. But, perhaps, they still are a good one.

Vinny

I don't think TIPS were around when HB wrote his book but Craig Rowland had something to say about them in his. His basic argument, as I recall it, was that he didn't trust the government when it came to TIPS because they were the entity causing inflation and controlling the CPI. He preferred gold for inflation protection because of its independence. Made good sense to me.

mathjak107 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 26, 2020 2:17 pm The problem is we never really know we won the game until well after the fact .

As kitces points out in his research on what is called the red zone , the danger point for a failed retirement from market sequences is the ten years leading in to retirement and the first ten years in retirement ....

Those are the critical years ....so it seems we won’t know we won the game until well after it matters ...

Those years are critical because our fuel tanks are full ...our portfolio is at max dollars and damages in dollars can be insane when things go badly ..... a mere 7% drop today for me represents more than a 10 years of 401k contributions at catch up ....decades ago it may have been a few months of contributing

https://www.kitces.com/blog/managing-po ... -red-zone/

Kevin K. wrote: ↑Sun Jul 26, 2020 3:04 pm From a recent Bernstein interview on the White Coat Investor site:

“How Much Is Enough?
Bernstein recommends a rule of thumb, based on annuity payouts and spending patterns late in life, that you should have 20-25 times your residual living expenses (after pensions/Social Security) invested solely in safe assets. No stocks at all. This should be in TIPS, SPIAs, and short-term bonds. If you have more than that, that’s your “risk portfolio,” which he describes this way:

Anything above that, you can invest in risky assets. That’s your risk portfolio. If you dream about taking an around-the-world trip, and the risk portfolio does well, you can use it for that. If the risk portfolio doesn’t do well, at least you’re not pushing a shopping cart under an overpass.“

DFA offers retirement income funds that reflect exactly this approach:

https://us.dimensional.com/funds/dimen ... ncome-fund

You’ve got to bear in mind that Bernstein’s clients are multimillionaires. That’s “winning the game” by his definition.